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January 2021 Observations and Discussion


Grizzcoat

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Impressive radiational cooling right over the heart of the MW in parts of IA where temps have tanked into the single digits.  Deep snow cover and HP will do the trick.  Has anyone else notice their grid temps trend lower for next week?  Especially those who keep adding to their snow pack around the MW/GL's region.   I once had low 40's but now low/mid 30's are in the grid for next week.  Speaking of snow pack, while we are going through an AN temp regime, I find it rather interesting that through the next 10 days the Euro is forecasting most of us to maintain their snow.  If it holds true, that is #winning in my book.

1.png

 

I forgot to mention, but I wanted to wish everyone a Happy New Year as we welcome 2021!  The start of a new decade is upon us and what I believe will be the beginning of the "Roaring 20's".

 

 

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Models are really bouncing around with the mid-week clipper but the ensembles seem to have a better handle on it.  Over the last few runs, the GGEM and GEFS have been rock steady tracking this system right through MW.  I'll prob fire up a thread for this one later today if the 12z suite of runs remain steady.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

Models are really bouncing around with the mid-week clipper but the ensembles seem to have a better handle on it.  Over the last few runs, the GGEM and GEFS have been rock steady tracking this system right through MW.  I'll prob fire up a thread for this one later today if the 12z suite of runs remain steady.

 

 

This month is going to keep our hands full. I love it though.

Like you said, the roaring 20s. 

As my redneck personality says at times like these, "Let's git er done..." :)

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GFS and parallel GFS are both dismal for the next 1-2 weeks.... GFS is nothing but rain, parallel is nothing, period.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro is a nothingburger as well, weak and suppressed.  Hopefully, the second half of the month will get exciting.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Something to keep an eye on. As of now, it looks like a quick hitter. Maybe a couple of inches at most, but sometimes, these things can overachieve, so bares watching.

https://s.w-x.co/next_storm_poster_0102.png

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like at least the first half of January is a lost cause. Lincoln is 50% of seasonal snow average already, but no real cold. Lowest high temp so far has been 21. Something's gotta give by late January, I hope. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Classic example of the contrast between offices wrt tonight's "event".

GRR:

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021

- Rather mundane weather expected the next 7 days

Overall the pattern for the next 7 days looks pretty uneventful.
The main weather comes tonight into Sunday morning in the form of
a strip of light snow across Southern Lower MI. Outside of that,
there are no major system to deal with or intrusions of Arctic
air.

IWX:

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 717 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021

A quick round of intense snow will overspread the area later tonight
into Sunday morning. Most locations will see one to two inches with
up to 3 inches over northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio. Snow exits
by late morning with highs in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.Update...
Issued at 717 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021

Trends in near term guidance along with upstream sat/radar depiction
of vigorous sw disturbance and attendant baroclinic leaf lifting out
of nrn AR and expansion of radar returns through cntrl TN/wrn KY
along leading edge of return moisture plume. This portents a brief
period of mod-hvy snow likely to develop after midnight. Some nw
displacement of H7 dilatation axis also noted in model guidance and
suspect a robust deformation response aloft will occur overhead for
a time late tonight. Thus have backed prior gridded stripe of higher
qpf a bit nwwd esp under the guise of related H7 pivot point shaping
up further nw from prior. Otherwise with a period of low static
stability aloft timed with wwd arching but brief trowal, some banded
enhancement likely which may yield some over performance in snow
amounts northeast. Regardless rapid newd progression of upper sys
lends a risk of going any higher with top end snow probs even though
they may verify correct in some locations far northeast. Otherwise
primarily a snow event with drizzle persisting this evening before
ice nucleation takes over with arrival of upstream mid level
moisture slug.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hoping this last wave is the "little wave that could"

206079939_202101031amSurf.jpg.2e92facebaad4bacda93c236be9cc329.jpg

I'd be watching models if they weren't over-promising liars. Only Tuesday night's storm was modeled anywhere close to what the end result was around here. Hearing reports of some serious totals further south. Just don't know if the good stuff can/will make it up this far? Guess I'll find out in the morning during yet another now-cast.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Drive to work (once you get just 8 miles west of here) was VERY picturesque where that heavy snow band came through last night. @whatitdo Did your end of town get in on that as well?

20210102_135551.thumb.jpg.0e736352d21aed689938291cc7d41edf.jpg

 

 

Some decent parking lot piles at work now after the last 2 waves..

20210102_140937.thumb.jpg.e2e3d432cc20eb91468fe8f7c06795a1.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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20 hours ago, Tom said:

Impressive radiational cooling right over the heart of the MW in parts of IA where temps have tanked into the single digits.  Deep snow cover and HP will do the trick.  Has anyone else notice their grid temps trend lower for next week?  Especially those who keep adding to their snow pack around the MW/GL's region.   I once had low 40's but now low/mid 30's are in the grid for next week.  Speaking of snow pack, while we are going through an AN temp regime, I find it rather interesting that through the next 10 days the Euro is forecasting most of us to maintain their snow.  If it holds true, that is #winning in my book.

1.png

 

I forgot to mention, but I wanted to wish everyone a Happy New Year as we welcome 2021!  The start of a new decade is upon us and what I believe will be the beginning of the "Roaring 20's".

 

 

But wait! I thought nobody south of 45N was going to have any snow to hang onto.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Hoping this last wave is the "little wave that could"

206079939_202101031amSurf.jpg.2e92facebaad4bacda93c236be9cc329.jpg

I'd be watching models if they weren't over-promising liars. Only Tuesday night's storm was modeled anywhere close to what the end result was around here. Hearing reports of some serious totals further south. Just don't know if the good stuff can/will make it up this far? Guess I'll find out in the morning during yet another now-cast.

Radar looks pretty good for your area to get a nice re-fresher.  This may be the only system of any substance for the next 7 days.  Enjoy it while you can and hope you can score a couple inches.  I already received a dusting and it appears that I may still get clipped on the northern edge.

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7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

But wait! I thought nobody south of 45N was going to have any snow to hang onto.

I'd say many of us on here are doing pretty well in this "warm" pattern and scoring some hits, esp those out in IA who have a real good snow pack.  I just hope the snow cover can stick around for a little while longer bc I know the real deal cold is coming soon enough.  My snow pack is so dense and almost like a frozen sheet of ice from all the freezing rain.  Thankfully, it won't nuke as bad as the fluffier snow.  Gotta say, I love waking up and seeing snow OTG.  It's been such a long time since I've seen snow OTG.  I left for Arizona last year on March 1st so you can get an idea of how long its been...LOL...

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I took a look at the LM water temps and its not surprising that they are running warm, but this warm is almost unheard of this late in the season!  There is a small pool of 48 degree water surrounded by a larger pool of 46 degree water across the southern part of LM.  Boy, once that arctic air comes down there are going to be some whicked LES events.

 

Surface Temps

 

Speaking of LES, all the global models are starting to see the shift in the North American wx pattern I have envision by the 15th (ish) of the month.  While it has been a rather active period and most of this Sub (central/northern) members have seen an appreciable amount of snow, there will come a period in the not so distant future where more of us will share in the wealth.  The models are really struggling on the mid-week system due to all the blocking ongoing.  Overnight ensembles primarily take this system through the C/S MW states.  I hope we see some more consistency and a little more "Umpff" from the models today.

 

Following this system, the next one on deck should be showing up between the 10th-12th and the data is suggesting a more southerly route which has the potential to cut up towards the OHV/Lower Lakes region.  I'm not to confident as to how far north it will track bc of the magnitude of the -NAO block.  Nonetheless, the wave train continues and then we will approach the period where I think a more stronger and amplified storm tracks through the MW/GL's region between the 13th-15th that ultimately taps into the arctic. 

The EPS has been slowly trending towards the GEFS/GEPS and last nights 00z EPS run took another step forward.  All the models now see the amplifying N.A. 500mb pattern which suggests tapping into the Arctic source region.  The fun and games are not that far away and will be here to stay...at least through the remainder of this month.  I really think its a "hit and hold" type of pattern that's coming for our Sub Forum.

1.png

 

00z GGEM...

gem-ens_z500aMean_namer_9.png

00z GEFS...

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_9.png

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Looking at the national snow cover map and you can see the obvious snow hole over MT and the Dakota's...need that to fill up by mid month which I think will happen around the 13th (ish) as the jet begins to come out of the NW.  Systems should begin to traverse into the N Rockies as a more La Nina type pattern locks in.  

nsm_depth_2021010305_National.jpg

 

 

 

Regionally, the La Crosse area and near N/C WI are hurting in the snow dept...

nsm_depth_2021010305_Northern_Great_Lake

 

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Picked up 1.7" here in northern Macomb. Not sure how much fell in Detroit. Its a wet snow, so all trees are covered nicely, but w no arctic air in sight (just slightly above normal), this snow will barely hang on throughout the week. Temps in the 30s and lows in the 20s.

 

Attm, its 34F w cloudy skies.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Godddd I hate this season.

Quote

While a good shot of polar air would typically follow the passage of 
a system like this, a second, weaker shortwave is expected to be 
passing to the north of the international border at around the same 
time and will pretty effectively bar any significant cold air 
advection. As a result, high temperatures are still expected to 
remain in the 30s on Wednesday.

 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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22 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Godddd I hate this season.

 

Its pathetic. Hopefully and I mean "hopefully", by the 3rd week of January, some colder air returns and when I say colder, I mean temps being 5 to 10 degrees BN (not "Arctic Air").

Btw: February looks the same, no big changes and I truly hope I am wrong.

Also, I haven't used my snowblower yet and here we are in January lol!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/page-7.jpg?w=632

Perhaps some yard work in January anyone .....here is the opportunity.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

So far I have recorded .02” of new snow fall. At this time very light snow is falling with a temperature of 30.

You sure? That's like 1 flake if you even had the instrument. I measured 1.5" here making this the most wintry morning of this winter. Snow is not as dense as expected tho, and I see it has mostly melted on my always warm front walk. If we don't get that arctic blast, this one is headed for the "11-12" analog list.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just went outside to check out the scenery and it I gotta tell ya, it feels great to at least have a winter scene w average temps, or even slightly above this time of the year. "Winter Wonderland" and I also have old snow from Fridays snow, so there is a snowcover going on in SEMI. I am just waiting for the "Big Dog" to come this season.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

You sure? That's like 1 flake if you even had the instrument. I measured 1.5" here making this the most wintry morning of this winter. Snow is not as dense as expected tho, and I see it has mostly melted on my always warm front walk. If we don't get that arctic blast, this one is headed for the "11-12" analog list.

Whoops that is .2" put the . in the wrong spot. The overnight snow is now melted here as the temperature is is up to 36 here now. But it is true 2011/12 could be a good analog winter but even in that winter January had 27.0" of snow fall. 

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