January 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

Euro North America 850 mb temp anomaly on day 10... not pretty.  The Euro has a couple snowstorms for deep Texas, but nothing anywhere else.

[Stormhunter87]

1 hour ago, NH4NU said:

Afternoon EURO now thinking 2-4" for Omaha and surrounding counties. 

Jim Flowers is back to posting regularly. He is riding the Canadian model. He was 1-3. I would say a light snow all day 2-4, but there is two factors we have to watch. Dry air on the east side and temps right around freezing. 

[Stacsh]

couple more weeks!!!....Maybe?!?!?  Either way the GRR discussions are wayyyy better than they used to be.  

GRR:

"On a much larger scale, we have primary pool of cold air in the
northern Hemisphere taped under a large stable circulation over
northern and central Asia. That creates a series of strong
shortwaves and jet streaks that come off eastern Asia then track
across the Pacific, only to run into the upper ridge over western
North America. That results in split flow and hence our weather
pattern. This does look stable enough to last through most of next
week. If you like real winter weather, there is some suggestion
in the long range models (ECMWF weeklies/CFSv2 weeklies) that this
pattern will finally change the third week of January. It will
change in way that puts the center of the coldest air over North
America instead of Asia. That in turn will allow cross polar
flow (which brings Michigan it`s coldest weather). All of this
would mean we finally get some real west Michigan winter weather
the last 2 weeks of January. We shall see!

[St Paul Storm]

Picked up about 0.2" of snow this morning before the sun came out. Now up to 36F, which is melting that new snow on my ice rink. It's like a natural zamboni machine! It's beautiful, really. 

[Niko]

7 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

couple more weeks!!!....Maybe?!?!?  Either way the GRR discussions are wayyyy better than they used to be.  

GRR:

"On a much larger scale, we have primary pool of cold air in the
northern Hemisphere taped under a large stable circulation over
northern and central Asia. That creates a series of strong
shortwaves and jet streaks that come off eastern Asia then track
across the Pacific, only to run into the upper ridge over western
North America. That results in split flow and hence our weather
pattern. This does look stable enough to last through most of next
week. If you like real winter weather, there is some suggestion
in the long range models (ECMWF weeklies/CFSv2 weeklies) that this
pattern will finally change the third week of January. It will
change in way that puts the center of the coldest air over North
America instead of Asia. That in turn will allow cross polar
flow (which brings Michigan it`s coldest weather). All of this
would mean we finally get some real west Michigan winter weather
the last 2 weeks of January. We shall see!

Fingers crossed. Overall, a very thorough read.

[Clinton]

18z NAM with some changes.

[Beltrami Island]

1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

Cavalier, ND has an average Jan low of -5. Baudette and International Falls, MN at -7. All of these are Canadian border counties. That's about as cold as it gets in the lower 48 outside of maybe remote communities in the rockies. 

....I live in Baudette....

I have to check myself on this board every time someone posts a map of January "arcitc air" making it to Iowa, Illinois, etc and the temps are only in the -10s.  That is not even far from my average  January low!!!  It takes me a few moments to calm down and realize that -10s for most here is impressive cold air, and its all relative.

 

[Niko]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z NAM with some changes.

I hope you score Clinton. Looks like a couple of inches within the 18z NAM. Good luck down there.

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Niko said:

I hope you score Clinton. Looks like a couple of inches within the 18z NAM. Good luck down there.

Thank you much!

[Niko]

A weak trough heading towards SEMI tomorrow could provide for mby some snowshowers, but everyone stays under an inch.

[Niko]

@Clinton

There she goes.......

[Niko]

Per NOAA:    UGH!

High pressure builds down from northern Ontario during
Wednesday to begin a benign weather pattern by January standards in
the Great Lakes. The surface pattern is driven by larger scale flow
aloft that continues to exhibit a split flow/blocking hybrid
character. Extended model solutions indicate another even larger rex
block pattern setting up by Thursday which reinforces dry surface
high pressure in the Great Lakes. The air mass remains on the mild
side for daytime highs in the 30s while lows settle back into more
typical readings in the teens. These readings are overall at or
above normal through the week.

[Grizzcoat]

Definitely E trend on 18Z suite for midweek system.

[Clinton]

18z Euro going a little stronger and cooler for midweek storm.

[OKwx2k4]

Being patient here for winter's return and something to enjoy.

Hard not to take note of the huge warm anomalies in the north or the cold dumps over the Bering. Its darn warm up there. T minus 2 weeks and we'll see the difference.

[Beltrami Island]

I am hoping this winter follows the 2012-2013 or 2018-2019 mid winter pattern flip and not try to give 2011-2012 a run for futility.

[Hawkeye]

It at least appears the temp will remain near to below freezing for the foreseeable future, so we'll keep our snow.  Maybe in a couple weeks we can get another dump of snow on top.

[snowstorm83]

NAM looks like crap for Southeast Neb, snow just hangs around Norfolk all day. CMC still holding onto to dear life lmao. High was 44 today, only like an inch of crust left. Somehow my residential street is still slick and snow covered. If that doesn't melt tomorrow it never will. 

[Minny_Weather]

Normal lows are around 0 here, and yet we won't even see single digits for the next 10 days.

[Niko]

I know this is the last thing you guys wanna see, but here it goes.........brace yourselves:

[james1976]

Driving home after work with a few extra minutes of daylight made me think of spring, can't lie. Hoping for winter to still kick me in the butt. Its only January 4th.

[Madtown]

26atm lol...put a fork in it. So far to go to build up a trail base and nothing to hope for through the 20th. At least the lakes aren't melting What a horrific start/continuation of winter

[james1976]

OZ GFS literally has nothing here for the next 2 weeks. Not saying it will verify. But not the kind of model run I wanna see right now.

[jaster220]

On 1/4/2021 at 9:34 AM, Stacsh said:

I can be cynical as well, but I do it in a lot less sarcastic way.  This accomplishes nothing.   This is a winter thread and people will search for any indication of "real" winter.  Yes it's always 2 weeks away, but it has to show up at some point.  

LoL. Passed thru your region today and there's a solid 4-6" OTG. You've got solid winter. Come down here if you want to see #jokewinter conditions. This latest "snow-banza" 1-2-3 punch brought a total of 3.5" but included 2 rains & above freezing temps leaving a patchy 1". This is one of the lamest excuses for snow cover I've seen in my 18 years around here. I'm sure many on here would gladly trade places with what you've seen this past week. I'd post maps but it seems GRR didn't do any event summary maps. Last one I snagged was on 12-26 for the LES.

[Tom]

5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

It at least appears the temp will remain near to below freezing for the foreseeable future, so we'll keep our snow.  Maybe in a couple weeks we can get another dump of snow on top.

Same here Hawkeye, the stagnant blocking pattern is creating a uniform forecast through the next 7 days.  If its not going to snow in a "warm" pattern, I'd rather have it cloudier along with seasonal high temps.  The overnight lows are really driving the AN temp regime.  My local grid showing temps continue to trend lower with daytime highs AOB normal, I guess its the silver lining in this pattern.  Colder temps will certain allow the snow to stick around and the clouds will aid in that dept as well.

The foggy pattern has created some gorgeous photos out in the western burbs...#HoarFrost

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

28 minutes ago, Tom said:

Same here Hawkeye, the stagnant blocking pattern is creating a uniform forecast through the next 7 days.  If its not going to snow in a "warm" pattern, I'd rather have it cloudier along with seasonal high temps.  The overnight lows are really driving the AN temp regime.  My local grid showing temps continue to trend lower with daytime highs AOB normal, I guess its the silver lining in this pattern.  Colder temps will certain allow the snow to stick around and the clouds will aid in that dept as well.

The foggy pattern has created some gorgeous photos out in the western burbs...#HoarFrost

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Those are so very cool! I have never gotten to see that before. Thank you for sharing.

Lol, You sleep about as well as I do buddy. 

[OKwx2k4]

4 hours ago, Niko said:

I know this is the last thing you guys wanna see, but here it goes.........brace yourselves:

Sadly, this will verify. Above avg temps and above avg snowfall is a rarity for Oklahoma in any winter.

7-10 days of the "Nanook" knifing down the center coming post 20th just won't be enough to overcome it. 

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Those are so very cool! I have never gotten to see that before. Thank you for sharing.

Lol, You sleep about as well as I do buddy. 

I work international hours so I'm pretty much 24/7 and get as much sleep as I need to in order to be productive.  The saying goes, "Money Doesn't Sleep"...hope your doing alright down there...seems like the past couple weeks the storms have been tracking down by your area but no real deep cold, however, I see the models all starting to see the pattern shift by the 15th.  Let's hope we can track a few big S streamers that can share in the wealth before winter is out.

[Tom]

Starting to see some interesting wx maps in the Day 7-10 range even though we are seeing the operational models show nada.  Both GEFS/EPS ensemble showing more members during the 10th-12 period of having a northern piece interact with the southern energy.  I've seen this pattern cycle several times in different situations where enough moisture can get pulled north.  Last nights 00z GGEM sorta showed what could transpire and the GEFS below kinda give an idea of what may happen.  @Clinton, could be one for your area...depending on how much the models can relax on the blocking, I could see this system deliver some snow up this way.

 

Last night's Euro Weeklies continue to advertise the pattern flip by the 15th that has some legs, but on this run it looses the -EPO (bias IMHO) and also the AO rises + that flood the nation with warmth.  I don't believe it has a good handle on the EPO pattern for the Week 3-4 forecast.  Instead, the CFSv2 weeklies have been rather steady along with the Long Lead GEFS 35-day model that keep the ridging closer to western NAMER throughout the month post 15th.  Even though the models had been warm in the Week 2+ range the last week or 10 days, they are beginning to show the pattern flip towards a much colder and snowier regime for our Sub.  The pattern is going to turn very active by this time next week.

What drivers are causing the models to trend better??  

1) MJO not really amplifying...

 

2) Relaxation of the PNA heading into next week will allow for some ridging along the EC that favors a storm track right across the board.

 

3) Flip in the EPO...the Arctic connection is coming back into the pattern...

 

Digging deeper into the overnight data, it's becoming clear that we will see real winter appear, stay clear, as Ol' Man Winter will begin to reappear....

This looks fun...not a bad look to finish the 2nd half of January...fits the LRC/BSR quite well...

 

[Madtown]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Same here Hawkeye, the stagnant blocking pattern is creating a uniform forecast through the next 7 days.  If its not going to snow in a "warm" pattern, I'd rather have it cloudier along with seasonal high temps.  The overnight lows are really driving the AN temp regime.  My local grid showing temps continue to trend lower with daytime highs AOB normal, I guess its the silver lining in this pattern.  Colder temps will certain allow the snow to stick around and the clouds will aid in that dept as well.

The foggy pattern has created some gorgeous photos out in the western burbs...#HoarFrost

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rime frost not hoar frost

[Tom]

14 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Rime frost not hoar frost

Thanks for the correction...last time I post something an actual meteorologist posts on twitter!

[Clinton]

12z NAM still trying to make something out of tomorrows system.  Temps look marginal for KC area.

[Minny_Weather]

RAP/HRRR are East enough to give me a decent couple of inches tonight. Good enough to make up for the melting that happened yesterday.

[Niko]

FWIW, thankfully, the cold weather that is still hanging around is keeping snow otg and making it look wintry, otherwise, bare ground w/ cold air don't combine.

Attm, 32F w cloudy skies. A few flurries rolled on through earlier as a weak trough visited my area. A dusting at most is expected. Everyone w this stays under an inch.

[whatitdo]

uff i hate this period of inactivity. at the very least i just want something to track.

[Hawkeye]

This morning's GFS and parallel GFS are showing a blast of snow and cold around the 16th.

[Minny_Weather]

18 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This morning's GFS and parallel GFS are showing a blast of snow and cold around the 16th.

Yeah, that's been consistently showing up across the GFS family. I'd rather not have it be GFS showing that though. It's been god awful with temps in the long range.

[snowstorm83]

19 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Yeah, that's been consistently showing up across the GFS family. I'd rather not have it be GFS showing that though. It's been god awful with temps in the long range.

and the short range 

[snowstorm83]

Models seem to be shutting out snow near the Saunders/Lancaster county line. Omaha may squeak out an inch or two tomorrow. 

[Stacsh]

1 hour ago, whatitdo said:

uff i hate this period of inactivity. at the very least i just want something to track.

It's raining here!