Hawkeye Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Euro North America 850 mb temp anomaly on day 10... not pretty. The Euro has a couple snowstorms for deep Texas, but nothing anywhere else. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, NH4NU said: Afternoon EURO now thinking 2-4" for Omaha and surrounding counties. Jim Flowers is back to posting regularly. He is riding the Canadian model. He was 1-3. I would say a light snow all day 2-4, but there is two factors we have to watch. Dry air on the east side and temps right around freezing. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 couple more weeks!!!....Maybe?!?!? Either way the GRR discussions are wayyyy better than they used to be. GRR: "On a much larger scale, we have primary pool of cold air in the northern Hemisphere taped under a large stable circulation over northern and central Asia. That creates a series of strong shortwaves and jet streaks that come off eastern Asia then track across the Pacific, only to run into the upper ridge over western North America. That results in split flow and hence our weather pattern. This does look stable enough to last through most of next week. If you like real winter weather, there is some suggestion in the long range models (ECMWF weeklies/CFSv2 weeklies) that this pattern will finally change the third week of January. It will change in way that puts the center of the coldest air over North America instead of Asia. That in turn will allow cross polar flow (which brings Michigan it`s coldest weather). All of this would mean we finally get some real west Michigan winter weather the last 2 weeks of January. We shall see! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Picked up about 0.2" of snow this morning before the sun came out. Now up to 36F, which is melting that new snow on my ice rink. It's like a natural zamboni machine! It's beautiful, really. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, Stacsh said: couple more weeks!!!....Maybe?!?!? Either way the GRR discussions are wayyyy better than they used to be. GRR: "On a much larger scale, we have primary pool of cold air in the northern Hemisphere taped under a large stable circulation over northern and central Asia. That creates a series of strong shortwaves and jet streaks that come off eastern Asia then track across the Pacific, only to run into the upper ridge over western North America. That results in split flow and hence our weather pattern. This does look stable enough to last through most of next week. If you like real winter weather, there is some suggestion in the long range models (ECMWF weeklies/CFSv2 weeklies) that this pattern will finally change the third week of January. It will change in way that puts the center of the coldest air over North America instead of Asia. That in turn will allow cross polar flow (which brings Michigan it`s coldest weather). All of this would mean we finally get some real west Michigan winter weather the last 2 weeks of January. We shall see! Fingers crossed. Overall, a very thorough read. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 18z NAM with some changes. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said: Cavalier, ND has an average Jan low of -5. Baudette and International Falls, MN at -7. All of these are Canadian border counties. That's about as cold as it gets in the lower 48 outside of maybe remote communities in the rockies. ....I live in Baudette.... I have to check myself on this board every time someone posts a map of January "arcitc air" making it to Iowa, Illinois, etc and the temps are only in the -10s. That is not even far from my average January low!!! It takes me a few moments to calm down and realize that -10s for most here is impressive cold air, and its all relative. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z NAM with some changes. I hope you score Clinton. Looks like a couple of inches within the 18z NAM. Good luck down there. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Niko said: I hope you score Clinton. Looks like a couple of inches within the 18z NAM. Good luck down there. Thank you much! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 A weak trough heading towards SEMI tomorrow could provide for mby some snowshowers, but everyone stays under an inch. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 @Clinton There she goes....... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Per NOAA: UGH! High pressure builds down from northern Ontario during Wednesday to begin a benign weather pattern by January standards in the Great Lakes. The surface pattern is driven by larger scale flow aloft that continues to exhibit a split flow/blocking hybrid character. Extended model solutions indicate another even larger rex block pattern setting up by Thursday which reinforces dry surface high pressure in the Great Lakes. The air mass remains on the mild side for daytime highs in the 30s while lows settle back into more typical readings in the teens. These readings are overall at or above normal through the week. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Definitely E trend on 18Z suite for midweek system. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 18z Euro going a little stronger and cooler for midweek storm. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Being patient here for winter's return and something to enjoy. Hard not to take note of the huge warm anomalies in the north or the cold dumps over the Bering. Its darn warm up there. T minus 2 weeks and we'll see the difference. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 I am hoping this winter follows the 2012-2013 or 2018-2019 mid winter pattern flip and not try to give 2011-2012 a run for futility. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 It at least appears the temp will remain near to below freezing for the foreseeable future, so we'll keep our snow. Maybe in a couple weeks we can get another dump of snow on top. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 NAM looks like crap for Southeast Neb, snow just hangs around Norfolk all day. CMC still holding onto to dear life lmao. High was 44 today, only like an inch of crust left. Somehow my residential street is still slick and snow covered. If that doesn't melt tomorrow it never will. 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Normal lows are around 0 here, and yet we won't even see single digits for the next 10 days. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 I know this is the last thing you guys wanna see, but here it goes.........brace yourselves: 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Driving home after work with a few extra minutes of daylight made me think of spring, can't lie. Hoping for winter to still kick me in the butt. Its only January 4th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 26atm lol...put a fork in it. So far to go to build up a trail base and nothing to hope for through the 20th. At least the lakes aren't melting What a horrific start/continuation of winter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 OZ GFS literally has nothing here for the next 2 weeks. Not saying it will verify. But not the kind of model run I wanna see right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 On 1/4/2021 at 9:34 AM, Stacsh said: I can be cynical as well, but I do it in a lot less sarcastic way. This accomplishes nothing. This is a winter thread and people will search for any indication of "real" winter. Yes it's always 2 weeks away, but it has to show up at some point. LoL. Passed thru your region today and there's a solid 4-6" OTG. You've got solid winter. Come down here if you want to see #jokewinter conditions. This latest "snow-banza" 1-2-3 punch brought a total of 3.5" but included 2 rains & above freezing temps leaving a patchy 1". This is one of the lamest excuses for snow cover I've seen in my 18 years around here. I'm sure many on here would gladly trade places with what you've seen this past week. I'd post maps but it seems GRR didn't do any event summary maps. Last one I snagged was on 12-26 for the LES. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 5 hours ago, Hawkeye said: It at least appears the temp will remain near to below freezing for the foreseeable future, so we'll keep our snow. Maybe in a couple weeks we can get another dump of snow on top. Same here Hawkeye, the stagnant blocking pattern is creating a uniform forecast through the next 7 days. If its not going to snow in a "warm" pattern, I'd rather have it cloudier along with seasonal high temps. The overnight lows are really driving the AN temp regime. My local grid showing temps continue to trend lower with daytime highs AOB normal, I guess its the silver lining in this pattern. Colder temps will certain allow the snow to stick around and the clouds will aid in that dept as well. The foggy pattern has created some gorgeous photos out in the western burbs...#HoarFrost 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 28 minutes ago, Tom said: Same here Hawkeye, the stagnant blocking pattern is creating a uniform forecast through the next 7 days. If its not going to snow in a "warm" pattern, I'd rather have it cloudier along with seasonal high temps. The overnight lows are really driving the AN temp regime. My local grid showing temps continue to trend lower with daytime highs AOB normal, I guess its the silver lining in this pattern. Colder temps will certain allow the snow to stick around and the clouds will aid in that dept as well. The foggy pattern has created some gorgeous photos out in the western burbs...#HoarFrost Those are so very cool! I have never gotten to see that before. Thank you for sharing. Lol, You sleep about as well as I do buddy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 hours ago, Niko said: I know this is the last thing you guys wanna see, but here it goes.........brace yourselves: Sadly, this will verify. Above avg temps and above avg snowfall is a rarity for Oklahoma in any winter. 7-10 days of the "Nanook" knifing down the center coming post 20th just won't be enough to overcome it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: Those are so very cool! I have never gotten to see that before. Thank you for sharing. Lol, You sleep about as well as I do buddy. I work international hours so I'm pretty much 24/7 and get as much sleep as I need to in order to be productive. The saying goes, "Money Doesn't Sleep"...hope your doing alright down there...seems like the past couple weeks the storms have been tracking down by your area but no real deep cold, however, I see the models all starting to see the pattern shift by the 15th. Let's hope we can track a few big S streamers that can share in the wealth before winter is out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Starting to see some interesting wx maps in the Day 7-10 range even though we are seeing the operational models show nada. Both GEFS/EPS ensemble showing more members during the 10th-12 period of having a northern piece interact with the southern energy. I've seen this pattern cycle several times in different situations where enough moisture can get pulled north. Last nights 00z GGEM sorta showed what could transpire and the GEFS below kinda give an idea of what may happen. @Clinton, could be one for your area...depending on how much the models can relax on the blocking, I could see this system deliver some snow up this way. Last night's Euro Weeklies continue to advertise the pattern flip by the 15th that has some legs, but on this run it looses the -EPO (bias IMHO) and also the AO rises + that flood the nation with warmth. I don't believe it has a good handle on the EPO pattern for the Week 3-4 forecast. Instead, the CFSv2 weeklies have been rather steady along with the Long Lead GEFS 35-day model that keep the ridging closer to western NAMER throughout the month post 15th. Even though the models had been warm in the Week 2+ range the last week or 10 days, they are beginning to show the pattern flip towards a much colder and snowier regime for our Sub. The pattern is going to turn very active by this time next week. What drivers are causing the models to trend better?? 1) MJO not really amplifying... 2) Relaxation of the PNA heading into next week will allow for some ridging along the EC that favors a storm track right across the board. 3) Flip in the EPO...the Arctic connection is coming back into the pattern... Digging deeper into the overnight data, it's becoming clear that we will see real winter appear, stay clear, as Ol' Man Winter will begin to reappear.... This looks fun...not a bad look to finish the 2nd half of January...fits the LRC/BSR quite well... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 hours ago, Tom said: Same here Hawkeye, the stagnant blocking pattern is creating a uniform forecast through the next 7 days. If its not going to snow in a "warm" pattern, I'd rather have it cloudier along with seasonal high temps. The overnight lows are really driving the AN temp regime. My local grid showing temps continue to trend lower with daytime highs AOB normal, I guess its the silver lining in this pattern. Colder temps will certain allow the snow to stick around and the clouds will aid in that dept as well. The foggy pattern has created some gorgeous photos out in the western burbs...#HoarFrost Rime frost not hoar frost 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, Madtown said: Rime frost not hoar frost Thanks for the correction...last time I post something an actual meteorologist posts on twitter! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 12z NAM still trying to make something out of tomorrows system. Temps look marginal for KC area. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 RAP/HRRR are East enough to give me a decent couple of inches tonight. Good enough to make up for the melting that happened yesterday. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 FWIW, thankfully, the cold weather that is still hanging around is keeping snow otg and making it look wintry, otherwise, bare ground w/ cold air don't combine. Attm, 32F w cloudy skies. A few flurries rolled on through earlier as a weak trough visited my area. A dusting at most is expected. Everyone w this stays under an inch. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 uff i hate this period of inactivity. at the very least i just want something to track. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 This morning's GFS and parallel GFS are showing a blast of snow and cold around the 16th. 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: This morning's GFS and parallel GFS are showing a blast of snow and cold around the 16th. Yeah, that's been consistently showing up across the GFS family. I'd rather not have it be GFS showing that though. It's been god awful with temps in the long range. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 19 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Yeah, that's been consistently showing up across the GFS family. I'd rather not have it be GFS showing that though. It's been god awful with temps in the long range. and the short range 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Models seem to be shutting out snow near the Saunders/Lancaster county line. Omaha may squeak out an inch or two tomorrow. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, whatitdo said: uff i hate this period of inactivity. at the very least i just want something to track. It's raining here! 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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