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January 2021 Observations and Discussion


Grizzcoat

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I don't get some of the complaints in this thread. For the last several years we've had a January thaw, where it rains and there's absolutely zero snow fall and it's way too warm. nsm_depth_2021010505_National.jpg

I don't want to be rude, I know a few people here are looking out at brown ground, but this time period has been really, really bad this time of year for the last few years, and look at the snowcover. The snowmobile trails actually are open here, they opened in Dec, something that hasn't happened in a very, very long time.

Yeah, it looks warm for a week or so, but it's constantly been warm the first week or two of January for a few years. I'm looking at the forecast and I see cloudy with low 30s for highs. It means the snow cover is going to stay around and the ski hill will be in good shape. After the last few years, I'm very happy with just that. I'd love storm after storm, but I get to look outside and see snow finally.

I usually expect the first week or so of Jan to be a complete bust, and if we're just going to get low 30s and dry, with maybe a little snow, that's a huge win in my book. I just want it to stay below freezing and to get some snow. In fact if winter was constant 20s and snow showers every few days that would be absolutely amazing.

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7 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

I don't want to be rude, I know a few people here are looking out at brown ground, but this time period has been really, really bad this time of year for the last few years, and look at the snowcover. The snowmobile trails actually are open here, they opened in Dec, something that hasn't happened in a very, very long time.

Yeah, it looks warm for a week or so, but it's constantly been warm the first week or two of January for a few years. I'm looking at the forecast and I see cloudy with low 30s for highs. It means the snow cover is going to stay around and the ski hill will be in good shape. After the last few years, I'm very happy with just that. I'd love storm after storm, but I get to look outside and see snow finally.

I usually expect the first week or so of Jan to be a complete bust, and if we're just going to get low 30s and dry, with maybe a little snow, that's a huge win in my book. I just want it to stay below freezing and to get some snow. In fact if winter was constant 20s and snow showers every few days that would be absolutely amazing.

So because the past few Winters have had pathetic front halves, that should be the gold standard that we should all just accept now?

I get where you're coming from when talking about January thaws, but we've all been in a massive thaw since November. Climo does not support that.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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18 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Mmmmmm nice Northwest flow up here!

I have come to the conclusion that I would rather take my snow chances with NW flow in the northern plains than wait for a big Colorado low to cut through western Lake Superior.  NW flows can turn dry as a dessert, but when I think back its the NW flows do much better overall than lone big storms for our area.  Heck 2013-14 was pretty much exclusively NW flow and even though my backyard never got hit directly that winter, those frequent 2-4" snowfalls added up quickly.  The big cutters just don't seem to ever come to fruition for northwest minnesota, except for the wind.  

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I went outside just now to run some errands and roads are from what I saw wet, w a mixture of light rain and snow. Temps are at 34F. Luckily there is snow otg, so, it kinda feels a little wintry. Its a raw day though outside weatherwise, no doubt.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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36 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

So because the past few Winters have had pathetic front halves, that should be the gold standard that we should all just accept now?

I get where you're coming from when talking about January thaws, but we've all been in a massive thaw since November. Climo does not support that.

Not to mention many of us in west michigan are quite literally experiencing the lowest snowfall totals to date in a loooooonnnnggggg time if not already breaking records. But at the same time I do see where gimmesnow is coming from. Nice to look outside and be reminded that it's winter with cloudy skies and snow on the ground. I absolutely love being outside as it is snowing though, the picturesque winter wonderland with fat flakes falling is my favorite nature phenom. 

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Hang in there folks.......3rd week of January, Ol' Man Winter will arrive, "Hopefully." This is expected to continue into February. What concerns me is suppression.

"The Pattern Change"

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/USColdWave.jpg?w=632

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, gimmesnow said:

I don't get some of the complaints in this thread. For the last several years we've had a January thaw, where it rains and there's absolutely zero snow fall and it's way too warm. nsm_depth_2021010505_National.jpg

I don't want to be rude, I know a few people here are looking out at brown ground, but this time period has been really, really bad this time of year for the last few years, and look at the snowcover. The snowmobile trails actually are open here, they opened in Dec, something that hasn't happened in a very, very long time.

Yeah, it looks warm for a week or so, but it's constantly been warm the first week or two of January for a few years. I'm looking at the forecast and I see cloudy with low 30s for highs. It means the snow cover is going to stay around and the ski hill will be in good shape. After the last few years, I'm very happy with just that. I'd love storm after storm, but I get to look outside and see snow finally.

I usually expect the first week or so of Jan to be a complete bust, and if we're just going to get low 30s and dry, with maybe a little snow, that's a huge win in my book. I just want it to stay below freezing and to get some snow. In fact if winter was constant 20s and snow showers every few days that would be absolutely amazing.

This is literally the worst start to winter in the history of W Michigan.  We have the right to complain.  Above freezing temps on top our first little snow fall is cool and all, but this isn't winter.  Not sure what the rest of you arecomplaining about.  Some of you have had plenty of snow.  2014-2015 isn't happening though.  As much as some hope to look for it.  

 

It will get cold and we will get some snow.  It has happened every winter.  But in reality, this isn't a "winter" in W Michigan.   

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Look at what is brewing up in the "Arctic."

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/cGozOI_paCslEwxBvc5iAw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTU0MA--/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/FOWZCkeoLIBo4WyVRQ6pfg--~B/aD03MjA7dz0xMjgwO2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://media.zenfs.com/en-ca/the_weather_network_616/5a10063f330d18b7d1e1344e4af826a8

Also, check this out...talk about an brutal average high and low....now that is COLD!!!!!

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/yNUge.W7k4BBngaPUTgkow--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTcwNQ--/https://media.zenfs.com/en-ca/the_weather_network_616/db6746af1dfe0259184d89524188c595

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12 hours ago, Tom said:

I work international hours so I'm pretty much 24/7 and get as much sleep as I need to in order to be productive.  The saying goes, "Money Doesn't Sleep"...hope your doing alright down there...seems like the past couple weeks the storms have been tracking down by your area but no real deep cold, however, I see the models all starting to see the pattern shift by the 15th.  Let's hope we can track a few big S streamers that can share in the wealth before winter is out.

I'm making it. Lol. I wish I had that problem. Theres no growth benefit to being here of any kind but I guess not a whole lot I can do about it. Never had an opportunity here worth the effort. Another convo for another day.

 

Look to see some snow per euro over the next 2-3 days. Should help keep the depression at bay for a time. If it snows, looks to hang around for a day or 2 so that will be nice.

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13 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Euro remains undesirable in the cold department.

It does show up on Euro Control, but doesn't last long and then it's mild again.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Its a misty, murky, damp, wet, mild January evening out there w temps at 32F. Though, roads could be icy now, since temps are at freezing. It still feels nice outside wind no wind at all. Sprinkles and flurries are in my forecast for tanite, but will be ending shortly.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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6 hours ago, whatitdo said:

uff i hate this period of inactivity. at the very least i just want something to track.

Tbh, this almost feels like January 2019, when Arctic Air invaded the region towards the end of the month. It was supposed to be the middle, but got delayed. Iirc, the big difference w that year was that it was a lot milder and plenty of rainstorms to go w it, unlike this January, temps are at average, give or take and very dry attm.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Tbh, this almost feels like January 2019, when Arctic Air invaded the region towards the end of the month. It was supposed to be the middle, but got delayed. Iirc, the big difference w that year was that it was a lot milder and plenty of rainstorms to go w it, unlike this January, temps are at average, give or take and very dry attm.

I remember reading about that SSW event while i was in the carolinas. How bad was it here when that was going on? Did y’all get good snow too or was it just cold? Interested in hearing some stories lol

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Tbh, this almost feels like January 2019, when Arctic Air invaded the region towards the end of the month. It was supposed to be the middle, but got delayed. Iirc, the big difference w that year was that it was a lot milder and plenty of rainstorms to go w it, unlike this January, temps are at average, give or take and very dry attm.

This is starting to feel earily similar to 2019 IF the long range GFS is onto something. The cold did get to NW  Ontario, Manitoba, and northern Minnesota by mid month it just didn't penetrate to far into the CONUS til the end of the month. Similar thing happened with The polar vortex in Jan 2014. Here is my monthly temps for Jan 2019

Screenshot_20210105-182740~2.png

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1 hour ago, Beltrami Island said:

This is starting to feel earily similar to 2019 IF the long range GFS is onto something. The cold did get to NW  Ontario, Manitoba, and northern Minnesota by mid month it just didn't penetrate to far into the CONUS til the end of the month. Similar thing happened with The polar vortex in Jan 2014. Here is my monthly temps for Jan 2019

Screenshot_20210105-182740~2.png

Awesome..appreciate for sharing that.

Yes, I remember that year (2019) my area got blasted from late January and continued into Feb w true, arctic air. Temps got below zero for nighttime temps and I mean well below (-10s) and we also had to have the water faucet running a little, so the pipes wouldn't freeze up. Areas just to my north got as low as -20F or lower. I have a feeling we might be entering into something similar going down the road.

1 hour ago, whatitdo said:

I remember reading about that SSW event while i was in the carolinas. How bad was it here when that was going on? Did y’all get good snow too or was it just cold? Interested in hearing some stories lol

We had a blast here in SEMI and got hit hard w frigid air and some good snows as well. It was worth the wait. At some point, my wcf was as low as in the -20s. Most of us peeps on here were on pins and needles because this was getting pushed back from at least Jan10th iirc and it just kept getting delayed, until finally, end of Jan, all hell broke loose. It kinda reminded me of the severe Winter we had back in  2013-14.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Anyone believes in this....384hr GFS  🤣

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2021_01/42214964_Screenshot_2021-01-05-09-02-572.png.63626747a9ace103002955cc6ffe7ad8.png

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Lol, hold my beer.....

snod.conus.thumb.png.b34accf485c8bd64aef91ec4b7605eff.png

"The Storm is Coming"....

Models are beginning to flex the SER which will will aid in producing "cutters" and with all the high lat blocking coupled with a -EPO, things could really fire up for the S Plains around your neck of the woods.  I'm really digging the pattern setting up post 15th and after adjusting my LR call at the end of Dec, I started to focus on the target date of the 15th when the North American pattern would shuffle around towards the arctic connection.  I really believe the best is yet to come.

With that being said, while the overall boring pattern persists for the remainder of this week, it jogged my memory in years past where I recall similar situations right before the atmosphere churned into over drive.  I remember vividly the late Jan/early Feb '18 snow blitz for parts of the MW/Lower Lakes region and the Jan-Feb '19 snow blitz that targeted the western/northern Sub.  While each season has its own characteristics and target regions, this year I'm seeing it digging farther south and hopefully points east due to the blocking that will be persisting.  I'm a bit nervous as to how strong the SER fires up but that makes things exciting, right??

It was a matter of time the signal for the SER to show up as the SOI has averaged quite high in recent days...

Average SOI for last 30 days 18.64

 

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
6 Jan 2021 1015.41 1005.15 26.62 18.64 10.61
5 Jan 2021 1013.97 1005.10 20.07 18.25 10.47
4 Jan 2021 1014.45 1004.45 25.40 17.98 10.40
3 Jan 2021 1013.98 1004.40 23.42 17.41 10.26
2 Jan 2021 1013.29 1004.85 18.05 16.83 10.11
1 Jan 2021 1013.20 1005.35 15.27 16.61 9.99
31 Dec 2020 1014.71 1004.80 32.12 16.63 9.93
30 Dec 2020 1014.09 1005.55 25.01 16.26 9.78
29 Dec 2020 1012.89 1005.15 20.86 16.37 9.73

 

The models are seeing the SER towards the later part of Week 2 right when a couple big ticket systems are on the calendar...

1.png

 

It's not surprising that the ensembles are firing up the action right as we approach the 15th, at first around the GL's region, then the arctic express will begin to "press" down into the central CONUS.  Below is the 00z GEFS 5-day mean (13th-18th) as the anticipation of the NW Flow comes into play for a period of time.

2.png

00z EPS is agreeing to some degree that the pattern turns active post 15th...it'll be crucial to see the Upper MW fill in those "snow holes"...I think odds are in favor that it will given the wave train that is forthcoming...

 

3.png

 

 

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Locally, its nice to see the LR HRRR picking up on LES bands firing up Thu...I would like to see this signal get better as we get closer in time...high rez NAM also seeing a cold N/NE flow off LM that allows for on/off LES activity...

 

1.gif

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Today marks the anniversary of one of my favorite blizzards of all time in NYC...."Blizzard of 96." It was a blizzard for 2 days straight, non-stop. Travel was impossible!!!! At that time I was living in Northern Queens, about 15min away from the city and I was inundated w nearly 30" and the city had 2 feet. Everything was buried. No transportation for a day or 2, which really slowed everything down. Truly, only on the EC will you see snows like this. Take a look......

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Blizzard-Jan-6-8-1996-solisC.jpg?w=632

It’s one of the defining winter storms of the 20th century and is still a record-holder to this date for several cities. A true blockbuster storm, this nor’easter walloped the Eastern Seaboard in a manner that few snowstorms in the past have been able to do. Over the course of Jan. 6-8, 1996, it blanketed areas from central North Carolina to southern Maine, while immobilizing the Northeast corridor for days.

To this day, the Blizzard of '96 remains Philadelphia’s single biggest snowstorm on record with a total of 30.7 inches. Elsewhere, nearly 2 feet fell in New York City, and 18 inches were measured in Boston. Those totals were substantial but still fell short of the largest accumulations in western Virginia and the mountains of West Virginia where amounts between 40 and 48 inches fell, according to the National Weather Service.

https://cdn.abcotvs.com/dip/images/1150525_blizz.jpg?w=1600

image.jpeg.f2947f2cffa0d9810d447531265c3a25.jpeg

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/14578484/2017/01/gettyimages-52027990.jpg?w=1024&h=576&crop=1

https://cdn.abcotvs.com/dip/images/491508_012615-cc-past-blizzards-8.jpg

https://i.pinimg.com/236x/c6/4d/4f/c64d4f9da642196e1c5bce51d5de24d5.jpg

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I didn't see this posted, but I may have missed it.  Japan was recently hit with a tremendous ocean effect snow event.  Up to 7 feet fell in spots.  Below is an article.  In addition the all time highest pressure is believed to have been recorded in Mongolia at 32.31" or 1094mb!  And if that wasn't crazy enough just to the east of that incredibly strong high was an incredibly strong low pressure of 27.2" or 921mb.  Absolutely fascinating.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/04/japan-ocean-effect-snow/

 

image.png.c2266bce388d2d7f7a352001a1428cfa.png

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Attm, cloudy skies w temps at 32F. A passing flurry cannot be ruled out.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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