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January 2021 Observations and Discussion


Grizzcoat

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

On the east side of the lake here in Michigan it is a nice sunny day. With clear skies last night the low here at my house fell to 19. Officially the low was 20. Most winters that would not even be worth mentioning but so far this winter but this winter season here on January 8th and it only has officially gotten  below 20 four times. And for the season Grand Rapids has only had 7.4" of snow fall. 

It's not very often that we can say that Omaha, Nebraska has nearly double the amount of seasonal snowfall (14.6" currently season-to-date) than Grand Rapids, Michigan during the second week of January.

Needless to say you all in Western Michigan are WAY overdue, I have a good feeling that you will make up your snowfall deficit at some point this Winter.  

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1 hour ago, whatitdo said:

do you have the lowest total snowfall in a winter season on record for the GR area? where would you find this at

The reported lowest snow fall for any winter season for Grand Rapids is 20.0" in the winter season of 1905/06 the 2nd lowest amount is a reported 30.1" in the very next winter season of 1906/07. As far as I know at that time the reporting location was downtown some place. In 3rd place is 33.2" and at that time the location was the old airport off of 36st  The location moved to its current location in 1963 and since that move the lowest seasonal snow fall is 35.9" in the winter of 1982/83. That is the only year that has seen less then 47.6" at the current location. On the flip side the most snow fall at Grand Rapids is 132.0" in the winter of 1951/52 but there is a unofficial report of 144.6" for that winter season. 

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1 hour ago, Bryan1117 said:

It's not very often that we can say that Omaha, Nebraska has nearly double the amount of seasonal snowfall (14.6" currently season-to-date) than Grand Rapids, Michigan during the second week of January.

Needless to say you all in Western Michigan are WAY overdue, I have a good feeling that you will make up your snowfall deficit at some point this Winter.  

I always thought that the winters of 1905/06 and 1906/07 were way underreported but now I am not so sure.

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Everyone who got snow in December better be real grateful..because this pattern is BAD. We may be waiting until February for the next chance, and by then winter is really almost over.  Pretty much past the point of redemption by then. This will be remembered as a TORCH winter just like 2016/2017. There was at least some appreciable snow last month along Interstate 80, unlike that year

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As I sit here thinking of where the pattern is heading, I can't help but think to myself...is this the "calm before the storm"???  It almost feels like this boring and stagnant pattern is just nature acting the way she seems to do.  This years pattern has had its active and boring periods.  While most of Asia/Siberia are in the midst of an incredible winter, North America IMO, is about to prepare for a taste of whats to come.  The million dollar question is, what parts of N.A. will endure the wrath of Ol' Man Winter???  The long standing idea that we will begin to see a pattern shift around the 15th is starting to look likely.  Say good bye to the Split Flow and say Hello to a more favorable pattern for winter wx enthusiasts.  Initially, we will see a NW Flow pattern set up but then towards the later parts of January I see more of a SW Flow develop as the PNA turns negative.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_7.png

 

Nearly every model is advertising a connection to the Arctic as the pattern amplifies and storms are brewing.  My original call for a large system between the 13th-15th is going to be off by a few days and looking more like it will be between the 16th-18th.  The 13th-15th system is trending more towards an Ontario/S.E. Canada bomb instead that will tug down the 1st wave of a step-ladder trend towards a cooler/active pattern.

Both the GEFS/EPS ensemble members are starting to advertise the idea of both a northern & southern stream component...how many times has this happened this season???  I've lost count.  Needless to say, there will be something to track across the Sub, but before then, there is a N Stream system that will traverse the GL's region later next week (14th-15th) to kick starting the cooler pattern.

00z GEFS showing the idea of a S stream piece entering the LRC's hot spot slot near the TX Panhandle around the 16th/17th...cutter???

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_34.png

 

Following this period, the active pattern is just beginning and it will more than likely continue throughout the month and into much of February.  So, how will this winter finish???  Is winter over??  Nah, I don't believe so...we have been accustomed to having back loaded winters and this may just be that...another back loaded winter...let's enjoy whatever  Winter has left to bring.

I'll finish this post with the Strat forecast off the 00z GEFS and it is showing another round of significant warming Week 3 of the month.  Is this the final nail in the coffin for the Polar Vortex???

1.png

 

 

 

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No big storms anytime soon.  Looks to get colder after next thursday with a couple clippers maybe?  Boring times.  

Good news is that LES should be ramping up with NW flow and even weak clippers will do nicely here.   Sunny and mid 30's today will feel nice.  

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13 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

No big storms anytime soon.  Looks to get colder after next thursday with a couple clippers maybe?  Boring times.  

Good news is that LES should be ramping up with NW flow and even weak clippers will do nicely here.   Sunny and mid 30's today will feel nice.  

Yeah, the GFS, at least, is consistently showing a colder pattern, and active, but most runs don't really show much snow here.  The pattern change is a good start, though.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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54 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yuck.

Lincoln actually just ended up on the warmer and drier end of the middle range. The max temp for the year was somehow only 97, while Omaha was 100. We were spared from the earlier part of the drought in June and July. I took a look and I think this is the only year on record where Omaha hit triple digits while Lincoln didn't, but I could've missed something. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, Jaycee said:

Anyone else think this is the most boring winter ever? The seasonal depression is so real, especially during a pandemic! Ugh. My urge to move south is growing stronger every year. 

It wasn’t really boring in my area, at least not in December when I had above normal precipitation including snowfall. But ever since late summer we’ve had long boring stretches broken by heavy precipitation events. We were pretty fortunate precip.wise here in eastern Iowa. But I’m getting tired of this daily low cloudiness around here lately although I saw a little sunshine yesterday or maybe it was the day before. I like the temps lately though. Very little snow is melting and it’s not very cold either. 
 

And yes, moving south might help with depression. More daylight and sunshine are proven antidotes.
 

 

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2 hours ago, Jaycee said:

Anyone else think this is the most boring winter ever? The seasonal depression is so real, especially during a pandemic! Ugh. My urge to move south is growing stronger every year. 

I like snow but hate shoveling. I love the big snowstorms, but immediately regret it when I’m trying to move the “white cement” off of our driveway for an hour plus. I also hate the bitter cold. I’ve become grouchy in my old age(43) so I think about moving south too all the time😁

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Well, well, well....looky what we have here....suddenly, is there something to track???  I was def not expecting to see this but that system which was showing up in the extended during the (14th-15th) is throwing a bone for parts of the MW/GL's off the Euro.  It appears the blocking is trying to work some magic??

1.png

 

The 00z Euro Control is also trying to do the same as it develops a wave along the boundary and rides up the OHV...

2.png

 

There is some ensemble support to this solution as well off both the GEFS/EPS so this has heightened my interest...

168

 

 

 

3.png

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DMX's take on Tom's post-

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
348 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Saturday/
Issued at 348 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
Attention then turns to a long-wave trough that
may bring a bigger change to the weather pattern.

Thursday through Friday:

Long-wave trough digs from the Canadian Prairie Provinces early
Thursday morning and moves into the northern Plains. With the 00z
runs, the deterministic GFS and ECMWF consensus has been improving,
with both solutions now quickly transitioning the system into a
stronger closed H5 low pressure. The GFS remains stronger, with the
center of the closed low hitting 510 dam as the center moves into
western Wisconsin. The main difference is Thursday Night into
Friday. The GFS develops one deep surface cyclone, with the center
remaining in the northern Great Lakes Region. This is where is
places the stronger CVA, and thus favors the deepening of the
system. The ECWMF on the other hand, does not maintain a closed low
for the entirety of the system`s track through the upper Midwest.
This solution eventually splits the H5 flow into two separate
troughs, and each one has its own surface cyclone associated with
it. One moves through the northern Great Lakes Region like the GFS.
But, ECMWF also develops and modestly deepens a surface cyclone
closer to the Upper Mississippi River Valley, associated with a
southern area of CVA. This cyclone moves closer to the central Great
Lakes region, but rapidly deepens, and as it does this keeps the
forecast area on the backside of strong cyclonic flow. This also
wraps around a lot of moisture on the backside, and places quite a
bit of QPF Thursday-Friday. This is a rather drastic change from
previous runs of the deterministic ECMWF. It is now wetter and more
widespread with QPF than the GFS. Yesterday, the GFS was the most
robust with QPF for Iowa. At this time, it is hard to imagine how
exactly the deterministic ECMWF is pulling in this much moisture,
given the dry conditions preceding this system. Exploring the GEFS
and other ensemble suites, a few members are indicating a wide swath
of QPF across the forecast area Thursday into Friday. However, there
are still more members that keep event total QPF to less than a
tenth of an inch. It appears as if, at least from the GEFS, that a
dry slot may develop on the southwest side of this system. As for
the official forecast Thursday-Friday, it has been kept dry. With
the event still nearly 5 days out, cannot justify going from a dry
forecast to wet forecast with just one cycle the ECWMF drastically
changing its solution. This is further solidified by most of the
ensemble members not showing a considerable upward trend (yet).
However, if subsequent runs of the deterministic GFS and ECMWF
continue to increase QPF, and the ensemble suites also become more
favorable for moisture, precipitation may eventually be added to the
official forecast. NBM starting point guidance this afternoon may
begin to include slight chances as the 00z ECMWF is ingested into
it. But, this far out should, will not let deterministic solutions
pull too much weight for the forecast until ensembles start to show
more support for it. At this point, it looks like the main
characteristics to track is how quickly a closed mid-level low
develops, and what that ultimately does to any surface cyclone(s)
that move through the region. While there is still uncertainty with
the precipitation forecast Thursday and Friday, a strong pressure
gradient will very likely result in gusty winds, as high as 35 kts
in some cases.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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We now have 9 days of January 2021 in the record books and so far the mean at Grand Rapids is 29.9° that is a departure of +5.0. So far just 2.2” of snow has fallen this month. And while GRR reported 2” on the ground yesterday AM and there is still snow on the ground here at my house there are also a lot of green spots showing up in the yard as well. For the season the total remains at 7.5” GR is now almost 30” below average in the snow fall department for the season. With clear skies the overnight low fell to 16 both at the airport and here at my house. At the current time it is cloud and 29 here.

 

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GRR snippit LOL's me..

Quote

Either way, there is a
consensus in the ensembles towards colder temperatures with snow,
both of which are very normal for this time of year.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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On 1/9/2021 at 10:55 AM, Stacsh said:

No big storms anytime soon.  Looks to get colder after next thursday with a couple clippers maybe?  Boring times.  

Good news is that LES should be ramping up with NW flow and even weak clippers will do nicely here.   Sunny and mid 30's today will feel nice.  

Looks to get colder, but there is a chance for some bitter cold air as well. Have to wait and see how all this will transpire in the coming days. Thankfully, it does look more active down the road.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Lows dipped down into the mid teens last nite. Holding in 20s so far today under cloudy skies. Dry weather continues until next Thursday.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@OKwx2k4

The south is being inundated w watches and warnings, along w cold temps. Hope you were included in one of those headlines. Even FL is having a cold snap!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Euro is such an outlier.  I think it can be thrown out for the time being.   It’s not even close to any other model.  

It’s actually not terribly far off from the UK or Canadian. The GFS is the one that is more of an outlier. No models are in great agreement yet though. 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

12z Euro still showing a strong wave...looks to be a bit stronger this run thru HR 102...gotta take off and run some errands but it looks like we may have a system to monitor...Happy Sunday!

2 runs?

This reflects my thinking:

But, this far out will not let deterministic solutions
pull too much weight for the forecast until ensembles start to show
more support for it.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Euro 

8BD9D7AC-74A6-48BF-A3CB-F451CEEF8FA2.jpeg

Fringed with 1/2" here? Book it! LOL @ pattern changes.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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