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January 2021 Observations and Discussion


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13 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

Duds haha

For Kzoo proper, 2 of the 3 dud seasons had "M" or missing data for one or more months so I had to substitute BC5NW which is basically the eastern border of Kzoo County. 10 miles ENE, but it will give an adequate representation of the general area.

 

BC 5NW 1979-80 Snow total.PNG

Kzoo 1982-83 Snow total.PNG

BC 5NW 1997-98 Snow total.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I just happened to notice DSM was included in the Blizzard Warning....how long has it been since a legit Blitz hit the region?  By that I mean, heavy snow and strong winds and not just wind driven snow obscuring viz??

Wow, this is a long duration event with Blitz conditions!

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1207 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021

...Blizzard to Significantly Impact Central Iowa Tonight into
Friday...

.Strong and gusty northwest winds coupled with moderate to heavy
snowfall will lead to blizzard conditions tonight and throughout
much of the daytime Friday over the western half of Iowa.
Significant travel impacts are expected, especially along
Interstates 80 and 35. Over the eastern half of Iowa, lighter
winds and lower snowfall amounts are forecast but travel impacts
are still anticipated.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>026-033>037-044>048-057>060-070>073-
081>083-092>094-151415-
/O.CON.KDMX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210116T0000Z/
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Sac-Calhoun-Webster-Hamilton-
Hardin-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-
Polk-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Adams-Union-Clarke-Taylor-Ringgold-
Decatur-
Including the cities of Estherville, Algona, Forest City,
Lake Mills, Northwood, Manly, Emmetsburg, Garner, Britt, Kanawha,
Mason City, Clear Lake, Pocahontas, Laurens, Rolfe, Fonda,
Gilmore City, Humboldt, Eagle Grove, Clarion, Belmond, Hampton,
Sac City, Lake View, Odebolt, Wall Lake, Schaller, Early,
Rockwell City, Manson, Lake City, Pomeroy, Fort Dodge,
Webster City, Iowa Falls, Eldora, Ackley, Denison, Carroll,
Jefferson, Boone, Ames, Audubon, Exira, Guthrie Center, Panora,
Bayard, Casey, Perry, Waukee, Adel, Des Moines, Atlantic,
Greenfield, Stuart, Adair, Fontanelle, Winterset, Earlham,
Indianola, Norwalk, Carlisle, Corning, Creston, Osceola, Bedford,
Lenox, New Market, Mount Ayr, Lamoni, and Leon
1207 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions northern and central Iowa.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty
  winds could bring down tree branches.
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As we enter the midpoint of met Winter, we can all agree its been a very warm 1st half of Winter for nearly all of us on here.  While some have done well in the snow dept, others (including myself) have had a lackluster start that brings back some ugly memories of seasons past.  Will this same pattern last into the 2nd half of met Winter?  What's in store for the 2nd half of January??  Let me just say, there is a lot of promise for what lies ahead for those of us that have sat on the sidelines and it starts later next week.

I've long believed this season had a lot of potential.  The SSW warming was a big part to the puzzle and the key blocking patterns, esp the west-based Greenland Block, but that hasn't necessarily delivered the cold which North America has been lacking.  But why?  It's the PV!  Dr. Judah Cohen has shown examples of similar cases to this seasons SSW disruption or displacement for Europe/Eurasia to see the extreme cold first but then it's North America's turn.  Well, I have been searching for these answers and I believe the models are now beginning to show those LR clues.  Let me dive right in and show what I'm seeing....

Over the past couple days, I've seen the GEFS/GEPS holding onto the idea of a complete reversal in the 10mb/50mb Strat pattern as we close out January and open Feb.  This is a major LR clue.  For one, it is a favorable hemispheric flow that should be capable of producing long duration, sustainable cold for North American and that includes the U.S.  Where the blocks set up will be key to who gets the cold and the central CONUS is sitting pretty IMHO.

So, we go from the main pool of cold across Eurasia/Europe below....

4.png

 

To this by month's end...if this holds, the Polar Vortex is making a visit on our side of the Pole...

5.png

6.png

 

Let's consider the above to be true, then the aforementioned Cross Polar Flow pattern would lead us towards a possibility of severe winter that is similar to what Europe/Eurasia is seeing right now.   I know the LRC has produced calmer and active patterns in this year's cycle.  We are now entering the active pattern and the models are absolutely heading that way.  In fact, the LRC CFSv2 along with the JMA/Euro Weeklies are all agreeing that AN precip will develop across the board from now till end of Feb.  This signal in the modeling is quite convincing and for all the winter wx enthusiasts who are yearning for snow, the missing link has been the cold.  With that being said, if the PV does contribute as it should for North America, then I don't see why there wouldn't be a wintry/snowy pattern setting up over the next couple weeks, if not, several more weeks to come.  

Last night's 00z EPS continues to illustrate a wild pattern and sniffing out several snow storms and the one that has big potential is for later next weekend.

7.png

 

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8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

For Kzoo proper, 2 of the 3 dud seasons had "M" or missing data for one or more months so I had to substitute BC5NW which is basically the eastern border of Kzoo County. 10 miles ENE, but it will give an adequate representation of the general area.

 

BC 5NW 1979-80 Snow total.PNG

Kzoo 1982-83 Snow total.PNG

BC 5NW 1997-98 Snow total.PNG

Wow 21.6 - let’s see if we can get up to that lmao. Chances first year i move we get the lowest snowfall total on record would be ridiculous. Thank you for this man, whered you get it? 

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We are now at the halfway point of meteorological winter. At this point much of the area is on track for a historical winter season. Of course we will not know for sure what the seasons snow fall total will end up at but it is a safe bet to place that we will not reach “average” for the season. But keep in mind that there still could be some big snow falls in the next 3 months. Of note the longest standing monthly snow fall records at Grand Rapids are for March 36.0” in 1965. April 15.6” in 1961 and even May with 5.5” in 1923. Other than October 8.4” in 1967. The months of November31.0” in 2014, December 59.2” in 2000, January46.8” in 1999 and February 41.6” in 2008. At this time the January snow fall at Grand Rapids is at 2.2” and for the season just 7.5” At this time there is light rain falling here and 35.

 

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1 minute ago, westMJim said:

 

We are now at the halfway point of meteorological winter. At this point much of the area is on track for a historical winter season. Of course we will not know for sure what the seasons snow fall total will end up at but it is a safe bet to place that we will not reach “average” for the season. But keep in mind that there still could be some big snow falls in the next 3 months. Of note the longest standing monthly snow fall records at Grand Rapids are for March 36.0” in 1965. April 15.6” in 1961 and even May with 5.5” in 1923. Other than October 8.4” in 1967. The months of November31.0” in 2014, December 59.2” in 2000, January46.8” in 1999 and February 41.6” in 2008. At this time the January snow fall at Grand Rapids is at 2.2” and for the season just 7.5” At this time there is light rain falling here and 35.

 

crazy there hasn't been a day where there's been greater than 2 inches of snowfall yet (at least for kzoo). hoping february saves us from being on the wrong side of history 

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

As we enter the midpoint of met Winter, we can all agree its been a very warm 1st half of Winter for nearly all of us on here.  While some have done well in the snow dept, others (including myself) have had a lackluster start that brings back some ugly memories of seasons past.  Will this same pattern last into the 2nd half of met Winter?  What's in store for the 2nd half of January??  Let me just say, there is a lot of promise for what lies ahead for those of us that have sat on the sidelines and it starts later next week.

I've long believed this season had a lot of potential.  The SSW warming was a big part to the puzzle and the key blocking patterns, esp the west-based Greenland Block, but that hasn't necessarily delivered the cold which North America has been lacking.  But why?  It's the PV!  Dr. Judah Cohen has shown examples of similar cases to this seasons SSW disruption or displacement for Europe/Eurasia to see the extreme cold first but then it's North America's turn.  Well, I have been searching for these answers and I believe the models are now beginning to show those LR clues.  Let me dive right in and show what I'm seeing....

Over the past couple days, I've seen the GEFS/GEPS holding onto the idea of a complete reversal in the 10mb/50mb Strat pattern as we close out January and open Feb.  This is a major LR clue.  For one, it is a favorable hemispheric flow that should be capable of producing long duration, sustainable cold for North American and that includes the U.S.  Where the blocks set up will be key to who gets the cold and the central CONUS is sitting pretty IMHO.

So, we go from the main pool of cold across Eurasia/Europe below....

4.png

 

To this by month's end...if this holds, the Polar Vortex is making a visit on our side of the Pole...

5.png

6.png

 

Let's consider the above to be true, then the aforementioned Cross Polar Flow pattern would lead us towards a possibility of severe winter that is similar to what Europe/Eurasia is seeing right now.   I know the LRC has produced calmer and active patterns in this year's cycle.  We are now entering the active pattern and the models are absolutely heading that way.  In fact, the LRC CFSv2 along with the JMA/Euro Weeklies are all agreeing that AN precip will develop across the board from now till end of Feb.  This signal in the modeling is quite convincing and for all the winter wx enthusiasts who are yearning for snow, the missing link has been the cold.  With that being said, if the PV does contribute as it should for North America, then I don't see why there wouldn't be a wintry/snowy pattern setting up over the next couple weeks, if not, several more weeks to come.  

Last night's 00z EPS continues to illustrate a wild pattern and sniffing out several snow storms and the one that has big potential is for later next weekend.

7.png

 

Nice job Tom but I just don't see any big storms in the future for us at least. Most likely a miss to the south with this blocking going on. Too bad as plenty of available moisture with these storms. Just the way this year has been and unfortunately will continue.

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32 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z Canadian for next Saturday the 23rd.  Storm shows up then disappears on the models.  Now it is back again.  Can only hope at this juncture a week away.

Canadian 100.png

And then it fizzles out to nothing...again another miss to nothing

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12 hours ago, whatitdo said:

Wow 21.6 - let’s see if we can get up to that lmao. Chances first year i move we get the lowest snowfall total on record would be ridiculous. Thank you for this man, where'd you get it? 

NOWdata site.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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00Z Euro is a bit more progressive with the cold. Not a barney rampage by any means, but a nice reprieve from the blowtorch that this winter has been. Storm next weekend has significantly less moisture than 12Z. Basically gives ND/MN a wide swath of high-end advisory snow with the first wave, and a narrow band in NE/IA 8" or so in the second wave.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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While sippin' on my morning coffee, enjoying the light snow falling from the sky, I'm happy to say the landscape has turned white again.  With snow on my mind, as I'm sure there are many of us on here, the pattern is looking mighty fine for opportunities of white gold.  The shift towards a more active pattern are not fantasy anymore.  The models, including the CPC boys, are all seeing the mid-range and long-range increasingly becoming more consistent with one another that a lot of our Sub Forum will be in the prime location across the CONUS to experience snow producing systems.  I believe the system for next weekend will be a far reaching "share the wealth" from what I'm seeing at this distance.  There is plenty of arctic air to tap and blocking in store to deliver a real winter storm...finally...and this is just the beginning.

Both EPS/GEFS are dialing up a wintry look...the 2nd half rally is under way, first across the MW/GL's, then the central Plains get a taste with our next potential storm to track next weekend.  This part of the LRC was one which always featured a cut-off piece of energy that dug into the SW region and sent multiple waves of energy out into the central CONUS.  There is a possibility that during the Thu/Fri period some of you across the S MW/KC/MO region could see some snow.  In both previous LRC cycles, this part of the pattern produced down south.

1.png

2.png

 

3.png

 

Following the above mentioned storm system, once the cut-off low exits the pattern we will prob focus in a more dynamic system between the 28th-31st.  Last cycle, this storm produced a double barrel low that lacked any cold air but now we will have the cold air in place.  I got a feeling this will be a slow moving multi-day, multi-wave storm system.  If you look at the Week 2 blocking pattern setting up, one can imagine the road blocks in place to slow down the pattern heading into late January.  

Last night's 00z EPS signaling a "finger" of cold right through a majority of our Sub... @Niko, there is that look I was talking about when you posted that Jan temp map.  Although, this temp pattern is coming a little later than original anticipated, its coming nonetheless.

5.png

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Please lock in the Canadian model for KC next weekend. (10 inches in KC) 

7 days out, what could go wrong? One good thing for KC and surrounding areas is that we have had beautiful moisture the last 16 days. I've had 2.67 inches of rain/melted snow since Dec. 28th. Prior to that, 1.14 inches in 73 days. VERY DRY! Now, soil moisture has been recharged. 

We had a bad first half(lack of cold and snow), who's says you can't have a great second half and win the game! 

Come on winter's second half!

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While there was some snow in the air yesterday officially only a trace was reported. This winter season so far has really been historical. So far the coldest it has official gotten here at Grand Rapids is 14° It still has not gotten to 13 or below so GR will move into the 3rd place replacing January 17 1908.  In 2nd place is 2013 with January 21st 2013 (during the winter of 2012/13) and in 1st place is January 30th in 1932. With just 7.5” of total snow fall Grand Rapids is also currently in 3rd place for the least snow fall this late in the winter season. In first place is January 1907 and in 2nd place is January 1906. Of note is that both winters has the record lowest total snow fall in a season at Grand Rapids with 1905/06 at 20” and 1906/07 at 30.1”

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3 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

Please lock in the Canadian model for KC next weekend. (10 inches in KC) 

7 days out, what could go wrong? One good thing for KC and surrounding areas is that we have had beautiful moisture the last 16 days. I've had 2.67 inches of rain/melted snow since Dec. 28th. Prior to that, 1.14 inches in 73 days. VERY DRY! Now, soil moisture has been recharged. 

We had a bad first half(lack of cold and snow), who's says you can't have a great second half and win the game! 

Come on winter's second half!

The CMC would be sweet, not sure if that storm can produce 10in of snow, but I do think we could see 10 inches of snow before the month is over.

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Talk about "Spread The Wealth." This has a potential. Fingers crossed. Deep, cold air will be in place as well.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2021_01/snku_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.1548e5f89994af1f3a001d8a0480f923.png

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, 33F under cloudy skies. Still patchy snow around.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tonight's weak disturbance, which had been expected to drop up to an inch of snow, has dried up on the CAMs.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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