January 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

00z Euro has a few days of sub zero nights for parts of MN/WI/U.P. this week...with more cold later in the week following the Clipper that traverses along the Canadian border heading into early next weekend.

 

Last night's 00z Euro shifted way north with the snow but the 00z EPS farther south with the show shield...

 

 

00z GEFS...

[Tom]

With only snow piles remaining and some snow in shaddy areas, my snow cover has disappeared the other day which ended the streak of 1"+ snow at over 2+ weeks (16 days).  Looking at the current snow cover map, it's comical how Cook/Lake counties remain snow free and within a few miles west there is snow OTG.  It is nice, however, to see that a lot of you in the MW are enjoying a snow pack.  Pretty impressive streak...question is, how much more will we add to this??

 

 

 

[dubuque473]

Maybe another half an inch. I think I have shoveled my deck 4 times in past few days with these little whipper snapper events.

[Tom]

Another morning, another light snow event with a temp of 30F...the landscape is white again...yesterday, ORD picked up 0.7"...could we break 1" today???  

[bud2380]

Looks like we picked up about a half inch here. 

[Hawkeye]

I received 0.9", a bit better than I expected.

[Hawkeye]

I'm not crazy about what the models are showing for the bigger event a week out.  They are suggesting a digging northern wave will lead to the development of a surface trough extension up into the Dakotas, which produces good snow up north.  Then, either the southern energy gets suppressed or the mild air gets pulled up into Iowa to produce rain, which is what this morning's GFS is showing.

[jaster220]

A rarity this season

 

[james1976]

I picked up 1.1" of fluff overnight. Nice surprise 

[gimmesnow]

13 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Warmest late fall and first part of winter on record so far around here. 

 

Europe is getting absolutely hammered with the PV and snow.

This seems just like last year, Russia and Europe freeze while North American cooks. What the heck is constantly causing this?

[james1976]

GFS is starting to show the powerhouse at the end of the month that @Tom has been mentioning.

[Minny_Weather]

Been getting constant mood flakes this morning. 26°F.

[Grizzcoat]

Picked up a surprise 1.8" this AM.

[hlcater]

Given teleconnections, I find it hard to believe there will be many systems tracking north of Iowa over the next 10 days. Think the GFS is probably overdoing it with how far north the southern extent of the next few systems is. I’d put money on that being somewhere in S IA/MO.

The massive west based Greenland block won’t allow it.

[snowstorm83]

GEFS looking active through 240. 

[hlcater]

15 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

GEFS looking active through 240. 

Makes sense really, and most, if not all of that QPF in our area should be snow. It's not exceptionally cold by any means, but the storm track should be far enough south to keep p-type in check. As I said earlier, I think IA/NE/MN/WI are in a good spot to capitalize on any systems that pass through the area through the end of the month. 

[whatitdo]

 

well there's that

[Niko]

1 hour ago, whatitdo said:

 

well there's that

Yep...February is not looking very cold, just average or slightly below average and a lot of above average temps. I have a feeling Spring will arrive early this year.

I am keeping an eye on next weekend's storm, although I am concern for suppression.

[Niko]

Light snow attm w temps at 34F.

I swear, It feels like we are getting our first snowfall of the season right now (late October or early November) when snow has a hard time sticking because that is how it looks outside right now, wet roads and a little white on car tops and rooftops. This does not feel and look like mid January.

Btw: the 40s return again by midweek!

[tStacsh]

6 minutes ago, Niko said:

Light snow attm w temps at 34F.

I swear, It feels like we are getting our first snowfall of the season right now (late October or early November) when snow has a hard time sticking because that is how it looks outside right now, wet roads and a little white on car tops and rooftops. This does not feel and look like mid January.

Btw: the 40s return again by midweek!

It’s been lightly snowing for 2 days and we’ve lost most our snowpack.  Unusual for the coldest time of year.   Ugh 

[whatitdo]

18 minutes ago, Niko said:

Light snow attm w temps at 34F.

I swear, It feels like we are getting our first snowfall of the season right now (late October or early November) when snow has a hard time sticking because that is how it looks outside right now, wet roads and a little white on car tops and rooftops. This does not feel and look like mid January.

Btw: the 40s return again by midweek!

 

11 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

It’s been lightly snowing for 2 days and we’ve lost most our snowpack.  Unusual for the coldest time of year.   Ugh 

Yep. Feels like a lousy southern winter event if that. Need more cold 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, james1976 said:

GFS is starting to show the powerhouse at the end of the month that @Tom has been mentioning.

I'm sure it will find a way to smash Iowa and miss this region. Time to punt this winter for the SMI crew. Spring may get cold and nasty or it may torch. Heck it may just be a continuation of this endless autumn we've been stuck in.

[Hawkeye]

While it hurts to look at the GFS and see it cutting late-month storms well north, the parallel GFS is much different and shows a more suppressed pattern.

[Niko]

Right now as temps get a little colder, snow is sticking everywhere. Snowcovered roads, finally. Temp at 33F. If my area receives 2" then I'll call this a win.

[Madtown]

Looks like the cold might show in early Feb if we get lucky. The pattern doesn't want to let up. Looked like a big change, but we end up with another week of split flow and normal to maybe a degree or 2 below normal and no storms till u get out to day 7. The beat goes on and I am ready to destroy this drum!!!

[Slowpoke]

The cold is coming, the cold is coming! I feel like Charlie Brown falling for that over and over again. It’s looking like another week of boring weather here in lower Michigan. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Go and read the first page of this thread for January that was created right before Christmas.

Here’s a hint: lots of incorrect forecasts of southwest flow most of the month producing 3 weeks of amazing storms covering the country with things not seen in years or never before.

So what went wrong? What piece of the puzzle didn’t “play ball”?

[Madtown]

A taste of how desperate everyone up here is for snow. Snowmobile Trail report from a club.

[hlcater]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

While it hurts to look at the GFS and see it cutting late-month storms well north, the parallel GFS is much different and shows a more suppressed pattern.

Something like the GFS16 is probably more likely to be closer to reality than the op, just as a very crude and subjective claim.

[whatitdo]

On 12/24/2020 at 2:18 PM, whatitdo said:

if there's no ssw i feel we may be in trouble 

Narrator: “they were definitely in trouble”

[snowstorm83]

GFS warm and north for next weekend, low 50s reach southeast Neb. Fargo does well lol

[Bruce Stern]

3 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Go and read the first page of this thread for January that was created right before Christmas.

Here’s a hint: lots of incorrect forecasts of southwest flow most of the month producing 3 weeks of amazing storms covering the country with things not seen in years or never before.

So what went wrong? What piece of the puzzle didn’t “play ball”?

This board isn’t about predicting what is going to happen but rather to discuss the ways EPIC and HISTORIC may happen — no matter how slim the chances. That’s fine but trying to present the constantly-incorrect info as anything other than wishcasting does a disservice to anyone reading these threads hoping for accurate information.

All of the busted models — that the “experts” keep going back to — and cries to wait 2 more weeks remind me of another current event in the news LOL!

[snowstorm83]

Euro more north as well but not near as warm as GFS. Looks icy for i-80 folks, yuck. Both models have an early week system as well but that's getting into fantasy range and I need to ignore that. 

[Grizzcoat]

2 hours ago, Bruce Stern said:

This board isn’t about predicting what is going to happen but rather to discuss the ways EPIC and HISTORIC may happen — no matter how slim the chances. That’s fine but trying to present the constantly-incorrect info as anything other than wishcasting does a disservice to anyone reading these threads hoping for accurate information.

All of the busted models — that the “experts” keep going back to — and cries to wait 2 more weeks remind me of another current event in the news LOL!

That's easy to say when you've got no predictions yourself. Monday morning QB'ing don't work here. At least people like TOM put up why they think they do (albeit a little bias-- I get it) but at least support is provided. Where is your support for April? That's what Tom did last NOV. ( for this time period)  Be interested what you think for April. AS far as historic- DSM just saw Top 10 snowfall for DEC. And saw the snowiest period back in 2019 with JAN-FEB. This site has some merit. Just bcuz your backyard is getting shut out doesn't mean someone is wrong on snows. It HAS happenend. Try forecasting for an area other than you own by 250 miles and see how you do-- esp with precip do. ( Tom does better than most think)  ( I used to forecast for an area well outside my home -- and it's TOUGH with and without biass.  DSM snowfall through 1/17 is 28.9. AVG snowfall 30 yr mean is 35.3 THrough the season. Busted models>? For your area? Not here. They have been underdone for snowfall so give Tom a break and try it yourself. Whadya think for April? And than we can compare and contrast apples to apples. IMO- your a troll that hasn't gotten snow and are upset.  I get it. But everyone is not like you. Put up a forecast - or shut up. Jaster doesn't complain agst TOM and his region has been shut out and Jaster don't give remarks like that. Why? Because Jaster and other poster understand it VERY well could be them with above normal snowfall. It hasn;t been- but give TOM a break. Long range weather casting ( past 2 weeks) is tough. About a 15-25% success with precip and under 50% with temps. So some on here busted? They at least laid at the why's before the what.

[OKwx2k4]

Winter and the SSW made a fool of me again. Relevant winter is all but over for me. The cold will probably show back up about springtime and ruin it. 

Woo.....hoo.....

Sorry if I've misled folks again for the 6th year running. It wasn't intentional. Glad you all are patient with me and great friends.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

That's easy to say when you've got no predictions yourself. Monday morning QB'ing don't work here. At least people like TOM put up why they think they do (albeit a little bias-- I get it) but at least support is provided. Where is your support for April? That's what Tom did last NOV. ( for this time period)  Be interested what you think for April. AS far as historic- DSM just saw Top 10 snowfall for DEC. And saw the snowiest period back in 2019 with JAN-FEB. This site has some merit. Just bcuz your backyard is getting shut out doesn't mean someone is wrong on snows. It HAS happenend. Try forecasting for an area other than you own by 250 miles and see how you do-- esp with precip do. ( Tom does better than most think)  ( I used to forecast for an area well outside my home -- and it's TOUGH with and without biass.  DSM snowfall through 1/17 is 28.9. AVG snowfall 30 yr mean is 35.3 THrough the season. Busted models>? For your area? Not here. They have been underdone for snowfall so give Tom a break and try it yourself. Whadya think for April? And than we can compare and contrast apples to apples. IMO- your a troll that hasn't gotten snow and are upset.  I get it. But everyone is not like you. Put up a forecast - or shut up. Jaster doesn't complain agst TOM and his region has been shut out and Jaster don't give remarks like that. Why? Because Jaster and other poster understand it VERY well could be them with above normal snowfall. It hasn;t been- but give TOM a break. Long range weather casting ( past 2 weeks) is tough. About a 15-25% success with precip and under 50% with temps. So some on here busted? They at least laid at the why's before the what.

Thanks Grizz, I know this guy and a couple others on here try to single me out but it doesn't bother me.  In fact, its a motivation.  Sure, I get it, most of the people come on here looking for snow/cold as this Forum gains more active members during the cold season.  I try to look for weather patterns that are favorable for snow/cold, not the latter....of course, I do have a bias towards seeing snow and cold because that's what I yearn for.  I spend months in the warm season fantasizing about the winter and when it comes down to showtime, I dig and analyze the LR pattern.  To my defense, I do make calls for warmer patterns and ones that are not favorable for snow/cold. When I bust on my calls, I own up to it.  Glad that you schooled this dude about how easy it is to sit back and criticize someone when they don't have the guts or skill to make a forecast.  I don't see him, or others that are on here, that critique those who put forth opinions/forecasts get any positive feedback or appreciation when LR calls pan out and transpire.  I'm all for constructive criticism.  That's how us human beings grow intellect and learn from mistakes.  The reality is, this is a hobby, we are not in control of the weather and nature will always have the final say.  Make it a great day on Martin Luther Kings B day!  #HappyMonday

 

[Minny_Weather]

Pretty sure I've reported every one of that guy's posts. It's clear that his intent isn't to be a productive member of the community.

[Tom]

Overnight trends have been north with the snow mean heading into the weekend.  Looks like the trend has been for a 1st lead wave and then a stronger second wave.  Last night's Euro/EPS seeing this set which has been a similar theme we have seen since this pattern set up in the Autumn.

Here are the snow maps for the 1st wave and then 2nd stronger one...

 

00z Euro Control...

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Please for the love of God cover the bare grass before the temps plunge to normal.

[james1976]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Overnight trends have been north with the snow mean heading into the weekend.  Looks like the trend has been for a 1st lead wave and then a stronger second wave.  Last night's Euro/EPS seeing this set which has been a similar theme we have seen since this pattern set up in the Autumn.

Here are the snow maps for the 1st wave and then 2nd stronger one...

 

00z Euro Control...

 

 

Dear God yes to that 240 Kuchera