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January 2021 Observations and Discussion


Grizzcoat

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Overnight trends have been north with the snow mean heading into the weekend.  Looks like the trend has been for a 1st lead wave and then a stronger second wave.  Last night's Euro/EPS seeing this set which has been a similar theme we have seen since this pattern set up in the Autumn.

Here are the snow maps for the 1st wave and then 2nd stronger one...

1.png

2.png

3.png

 

00z Euro Control...

 

 

Should be noted that there’s question as to whether or not it will be cold enough for many of us in this sub to support this significant snow storm. Temp trends for this period continue to get warmer bc ofc they are. Maddening in the heart of winter. 

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Overnight trends have been north with the snow mean heading into the weekend.  Looks like the trend has been for a 1st lead wave and then a stronger second wave.  Last night's Euro/EPS seeing this set which has been a similar theme we have seen since this pattern set up in the Autumn.

Here are the snow maps for the 1st wave and then 2nd stronger one...

1.png

2.png

3.png

 

00z Euro Control...

 

 

I can't believe I am saying this but I would even take a 1/3 of what Euro is showing. I love tracking major snowstorms but this winter has taught me to accept what is being given to us. Another work week of nada but maybe the weekend will bring us a surprise.

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Hey it is snowing again here at my house. Yesterday Grand Rapids officially reported 0.3" of snow fall (it all melted yesterday) and so far today here at my house I now have 0.1" of new snow on the ground. As of this morning Grand Rapids has now had 2.5" of snow this January and is now up to 7.8" for the season. At this time there is light snow falling and the current temperature is at 32

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Attm, its 30F under cloudy skies and there is a light snowcover around. Feels wintry and I will accept this, considering how this Winter has been going.

Still keeping an eye on this weeks snow potential (towards the weekend and into early next week). Cold air will be in place for once. Fingers crossed!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I know this is so far down the road there is no point in worrying about it, but I fail to believe the Euro is handling 850s properly with this setup.  The SLP on the MO/Ark border, but has 850s surging above 0 all the way to Dubuque, IA?  I don't think so.  The one trend we've seen so far this year, is that even on these border line thermal events, we have had enough cold air to produce snow.  I haven't seen a 33 degree rainer yet.  This storm on the Euro also looks a lot like what was showing up on models at the end of December that dropped 8.5" in my backyard.  A positively tilted trough that models initially showed as two pieces of energy, with a lead wave of over-running moisture and then a secondary low forming behind it.  The storm ended up producing basically all the snow from the over-running moisture as the secondary low hung back.  I'd have to look back and see what happened with the secondary piece, but I believe it stayed further south and weaker.  Either way, a long ways out and lots to change yet, but at least models are coming into agreement on something to watch.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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This morning's GFS is faster and flatter with the northern stream wave next weekend, so the surge of mild air is more tame and the snow is farther south.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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10 minutes ago, james1976 said:

12z GFS with a lot going on from Saturday through all of next week 

Yeah. But the much hyped Arctic charge is turning into a bluff.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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50 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Yeah. But the much hyped Arctic charge is turning into a bluff.

Lincoln doesn't get below 20 the entire run despite multiple snow chances....that's pretty outrageous for late January going into Feb. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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A few light snowshowers attm w temps AN once again, at 34F. Looks wintry out there. Lets build up the glacier y'all. Kinda hard to see my subdivision road from my house, but I have a feeling, its slippery because my driveway and pathway looks icy. If time permits, might need to go out later and clear it up a little, unless I let Ma Nature do the job for me on Thursday when temps hit near 40F briefly....😆

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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SWMI looking good today, per radar. LES finally kicks in.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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24 minutes ago, Niko said:

SWMI looking good today, per radar. LES finally kicks in.

hit or miss.  Unless you are under the intense banding (my house) it's not much (my work).  I looked at my ring camera and we have snow covered roads near my house and i'd guess a fluffy inch on the grass.  But nothing here in Downtown GR.   (7 miles away).  

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12z Euro coming in colder and farther south with the 1st wave and then a juicy secondary low forms in the deep south but doesn't cut like in previous runs due to more blocking in S Canada.  Interesting run.  Another system on its heels that develops in the Rockies.  Looks like the cold air is winning which is a plus, provided the storms keep coming out of the SW.  This was a part of the LRC where the trough in the SW kept pumping waves out into the central CONUS.

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Euro 10-day snowfall.  There are certainly no cutters in there with strong blocking shearing systems eastward once they approach the lakes region.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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39 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Euro 10-day snowfall.  There are certainly no cutters in there with strong blocking shearing systems eastward once they approach the lakes region.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Definitely a step in the right direction. Lots to iron out here but at least the cold is winning leading to snow instead of a cold rain.

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1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

hit or miss.  Unless you are under the intense banding (my house) it's not much (my work).  I looked at my ring camera and we have snow covered roads near my house and i'd guess a fluffy inch on the grass.  But nothing here in Downtown GR.   (7 miles away).  

Huge difference weatherwise within 7 miles in distance

Snowshowers here imby. There is snow otg, so looking wintry

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

hit or miss.  Unless you are under the intense banding (my house) it's not much (my work).  I looked at my ring camera and we have snow covered roads near my house and i'd guess a fluffy inch on the grass.  But nothing here in Downtown GR.   (7 miles away).  

Have just under a inch here. The road was covered but it has now melted. 

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WPC liking the northlands for wave 1 but undecided wrt wave 2.

 

hazards_d3_7_contours.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Just want to say sorry to Tom. I truly appreciate your expertise and am sorry if for some reason I made it seem otherwise. Frustrating year for snow.

No need to apologize bud.  I wasn’t referring to you.  I can only imagine what your feeling with the lack of snow, esp since you just moved up north to live in a region that should have a lot of snow!  Ughh, it must feel dreadful.

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Another day, another stack of tenths. Also the first sub-freezing day in the last 6. Had flakes flying on/off all day so it at least looked and felt the season. Ground cover here is <1" but Kzoo area where I work looks to have a solid 2" and much more in the way of plow piles from the storm on NYD. Grass is solidly covered there. Today featured clipper trough enhanced LES that has been lacking. @whatitdo The flakes flying today was a much more typical SWMI winter's day. Too bad we didn't have a true snow pack to freshen-up like we normally do this time of year.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hmm..that'd be my region.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1205 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

Primarily MVFR conditions are expected overnight and Tuesday due
to extensive low cloud cover and occasional light snow showers and
flurries. A burst of heavier snow is expected Tuesday evening at
our southern terminals which will cause conditions to deteriorate
to IFR/LIFR there from around 00Z through 06Z Wed.

&&

Wouldn't mind if this wanted to over-perform

1266542030_202101190zNMM_mslp_pcpn_frzn_fh17-30.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Hmm..that'd be my region.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1205 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

Primarily MVFR conditions are expected overnight and Tuesday due
to extensive low cloud cover and occasional light snow showers and
flurries. A burst of heavier snow is expected Tuesday evening at
our southern terminals which will cause conditions to deteriorate
to IFR/LIFR there from around 00Z through 06Z Wed.

&&

Wouldn't mind if this wanted to over-perform

1266542030_202101190zNMM_mslp_pcpn_frzn_fh17-30.gif

Ya, I agree, this cool looking wave along the jet streak could deliver some nice banding...

1.gif

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For the late weekend system, both the GGEM/EURO are pretty similar while the GFS is farther N and warmer.  Last night's 00z Euro showing this for the 1st/2nd wave....it's still showing a warm nose out ahead of the main SLP which brings a snow to mix scenario around here and back to all snow on Monday.

1.png

 

00z EPS...

3.png

 

 

But wait, it doesn't stop there....the next storm system is right on its heals and both the op and ensembles are seeing it...

2.png

 

 

 

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