January 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

Was in Grand Forks tonight for work. Drove thru moderate snow coming home. About 1.5" of powder on my balcony. 4*F.

[westMJim]

Officially 0.2" of new snow fell in Grand Rapids yesterday. That now gives grand Rapids a total of 2.7" for January and for the season Grand Rapids is now at 8.0" At this time it is cloudy here with a temperature of 26. There is a trace of snow on the ground. That includes some of the snow that fell late yesterday and the old snow piles that have hung on since the heavy wet snow that fell in late December.

[Clinton]

6z Euro with some small changes from the 0z thru the weekend.

[dubuque473]

I have a chance at a few inches today..

 

[Stacsh]

On 1/17/2021 at 6:01 PM, whatitdo said:

 

Yep. Feels like a lousy southern winter event if that. Need more cold 

Never underestimate the lake.  You might score well with tonight's lake enhancement.  Looks to stay a 1/2 county south of me tonight.  

[Tony]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

For the late weekend system, both the GGEM/EURO are pretty similar while the GFS is farther N and warmer.  Last night's 00z Euro showing this for the 1st/2nd wave....it's still showing a warm nose out ahead of the main SLP which brings a snow to mix scenario around here and back to all snow on Monday.

 

00z EPS...

 

 

But wait, it doesn't stop there....the next storm system is right on its heals and both the op and ensembles are seeing it...

 

 

 

Maybe for once this winter this will pan out to something plowable as most of us really want to track a fun storm for once this winter. Don't want to get on the hype train just yet but having the Euro on your side is a plus. I know it hasn't performed the best this winter but really none of the models have.

[MIKEKC]

Kansas City and I'm sure other surrounding cities should be on pace for a record warm meteorological winter. We are currently running close to 6 degrees above average for Dec. and Jan. We will add to that this week with 45-60 degree weather in the region this week. 

 

Lezak mentioned a block forming in his blog this morning which will influence the model data. we shall see as I like the active look to the data, don't like the temperature outlook. Most if not all of the storms will be rain in KC. Plenty of time for that to change.  

[Clinton]

Nice blog today from Lezak discussing the blocking that is setting up.

https://www.kshb.com/weather/weather-blog-looking-ahead-to-afc-championship-sunday-a-series-of-storms

[Niko]

14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Nice blog today from Lezak discussing the blocking that is setting up.

https://www.kshb.com/weather/weather-blog-looking-ahead-to-afc-championship-sunday-a-series-of-storms

Thanks for sharing this bud! Very informative!

[Niko]

Attm, its 28F under cloudy skies w a light snowcover around. Have to watch tanite as an intense LES band might affect SEMI. I think I might be a little too far north for it, but nevertheless, I could get clipped by it.

 

Note: still watching the late weekend storm. Not crawling into it as of yet. Way too early. Nice to have a potential though, "finally." Have to boost those snowfall totals in the dept.

[Niko]

2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Never underestimate the lake.  You might score well with tonight's lake enhancement.  Looks to stay a 1/2 county south of me tonight.  

I might be a little too far north.......

[Hawkeye]

GFS for the initial wave that produces long-duration, light-to-moderate snow.  The GFS has now turned the bigger second wave into a suppressed rainer.  Remember how the GFS, just a couple days ago, was cutting this bigger wave up to Lake Superior?  The blocking won and the GFS lost.

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

For the late weekend system, both the GGEM/EURO are pretty similar while the GFS is farther N and warmer.  Last night's 00z Euro showing this for the 1st/2nd wave....it's still showing a warm nose out ahead of the main SLP which brings a snow to mix scenario around here and back to all snow on Monday.

 

00z EPS...

 

 

But wait, it doesn't stop there....the next storm system is right on its heals and both the op and ensembles are seeing it...

 

 

 

I had my kicking leg back ready to punt and now this?? Euro better not be trolling mby

[Hawkeye]

GFS has another 1-4" for many along I-80 Tuesday/Wednesday.  That system looks like it will be better, but the GFS isn't very robust with the cold sector precip.

Here's the total for all waves.

[jaster220]

@whatitdo

Congrats on joining the WWA party. Should be a good time this evening.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

We added Kalamazoo County to the advisory. With the likelihood of
the snow to impact the intersection of I 94 and US 131 we went
ahead and included this county in the advisory. The morning
guidance that is coming shows a several inches of snow possible
for the Kalamazoo region as well.

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

GFS has another 1-4" for many along I-80 Tuesday/Wednesday.  That system looks like it will be better, but the GFS isn't very robust with the cold sector precip.

Here's the total for all waves.

Too far out to worry about any single model specifics. Just good to see the globals with system(s) in our neck of the woods imho. Ofc, with much more storm action/success this winter you may have more confidence at this range. Understandable tbh. I remember the good years when everything seemed to work out around here too.

[Tom]

12z GGEM looks like an I-80 on north snow scenario with the 1st wave...2nd storm looks juiced but tracks farther south as a rainer like the GFS...

 

[Hawkeye]

GFSv16 (parallel) is generally weakish and suppressed with everything after the initial wave.

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

12z GGEM looks like an I-80 on north snow scenario with the 1st wave...2nd storm looks juiced but tracks farther south as a rainer like the GFS...

 

Mentioned elsewhere, timing of ejection will be critical in this set-up. Going to be days waiting for that to get sorted out.

[Hawkeye]

It'd be a shame if the stronger, juiced-up second wave gets wasted as a suppressed rainer.

[Tom]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Mentioned elsewhere, timing of ejection will be critical in this set-up. Going to be days waiting for that to get sorted out.

Yup, I agree wrt the 2nd stronger wave, just commenting on the run...needless to say, there appears to be some consistency in today's 12z suite thus far.  Interested to see the Euro/UKIE later today.

[bud2380]

Canadian is similar to the GFS with back to back events on Saturday/Sat night and then a small break and more precip Sunday and Sunday night.  Here is snow totals through midnight Sunday night.

 

[bud2380]

The snow never ends on the Canadian.  It's just wave after wave of snow.  It would be a dream come true if this is what happened.

 

[Hawkeye]

GFS and Canadian both show a surge of mild air at the end of the month.

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The snow never ends on the Canadian.  It's just wave after wave of snow.  It would be a dream come true if this is what happened.

 

Which is why it won't, lol.

 

 

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

GFS and Canadian both show a surge of mild air at the end of the month.

So if it does happen, would be like a repeat of Feb 2018 here. Over-running wave train followed by 61F and historic flooding. Let's hope not. Don't need more misery piled on this winter season.

[jaster220]

22 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

It'd be a shame if the stronger, juiced-up second wave gets wasted as a suppressed rainer.

Unless there's some strong arctic HP coming on down, Idk why it would?

[Hawkeye]

UK through Monday morning.... some of this is today's weak, narrow clipper.

The UK looks like it will suppress the bigger Tues/Wed wave as well.

[Tony]

This is for todays event from LOT Aviation. Could be interesting for a couple hours

The latest few iterations of the RAP have become increasingly
aggressive in showing the advection of a narrow plume of steep
lapse rates into the snow growth zone this evening. Should the
thermal instability become available, a narrow band of heavy snow
characterized by snow rates approaching 1"/hr and visibility
below 1/2SM may develop somewhere across northern Illinois
(looking at 00-03Z for timing). At this point, it appears the
best potential for such a band to develop would be south and west
of all terminals. However, trends will need to be monitored
closely.

[Tony]

37 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The snow never ends on the Canadian.  It's just wave after wave of snow.  It would be a dream come true if this is what happened.

 

Oz Euro and 12z Canadian do look like a nice hit for most of us. I know there are a lot of moving parts, as always, to figure out like some phasing issues, how strong of a blocking will be in place and ejection issues. Looks like a decent baroclinic zone draped around the area which is a plus. Looking forward to the 12z Euro 

[Grizzcoat]

This is no hint of Arctic air anymore in any range of guidance.. 10 days ago all I heard was SSW and Arctic is coming. What happened to the SSW and Arctic air that was almost certainly coming???

[Hawkeye]

Today's clipper has trended northeast and it appears my area will get very little.  Chicagoland should get an inch or two.

[Tony]

7 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

This is no hint of Arctic air anymore in any range of guidance.. 10 days ago all I heard was SSW and Arctic is coming. What happened to the SSW and Arctic air that was almost certainly coming???

Might happen in February but I have never been a big fan of super cold plus those artic highs always seem to suppress big storms or shred them to nada.

[Tony]

This is cruel and unusual punishment and if this came to fruition Trump would have to place the GFS on the pardon list.

[Niko]

Very pleased to announce a new "Greek Market" in downtown Detroit. I was there earlier today doing some shopping.

It reads "coming soon," but it has been already opened to the public now for several weeks.

http://greektownmarket.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/baklikon.jpg

 

[GDR]

Better get that pardon done fast because this time tomorrow he has no power!!

[Hawkeye]

The Euro has become very weak with the weekend snow across the region.

Just a few days ago Tom posted about keeping politics out of the forum, but some of you people just can't help yourselves. 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro is unimpressive with the first couple waves.  The energy that ejects from the sw hits the blocking and goes poof.

[snowstorm83]

It seems like every model has been keeping any appreciable accumulations post day 7 in southeast Nebraska. Going to be discussing this in the Feb thread if the the time frame doesn't move as the days pass 

[BMT]

I'll take the Canadian for $300

[Hawkeye]

The Euro has the final slug of good energy slowly traversing the region late in the period.  Alas, after dumping big time on NE into central IA, this energy also hits the blocking over the lakes and gets squashed southeastward.