January 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

Euro - all three waves... going the wrong direction for most of us.

[Grizzcoat]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

@Tom, @Grizzcoat, @someweatherdude, @jaster220 and anyone else I forget (there are probably 4 more of you, at least) who make the board what it is. Just keep doing what you do. Forget the haters. We tried, and I'm actually glad that some of you to my north aren't sitting under the great NW flow shaftola today like we would have been under anomalous PV and what EVERY RELEVANT SIGN AVAILABLE showed us long range guys. If you "Critics" (to put it politely) could go back to August/September boards where Tom and I were studying and get closer, please teach us how. I'm all ears. The rarity of events on the other side of our hemisphere is off the rails in terms of history, so quite frankly, get a life and look around every once in awhile. It took literal <1% events over there to shank our predictions so shove off.

You guys have fun up there. I'm legitimately happy for you great guys and beautiful and kind ladies up north around Chicago who are having a blast right now. With all my heart. I know you all miss the snow when it's gone every bit as bad as I do. Keep sharing the pictures, too. I love them. I get to, at least, live vicariously through them for a minute or 2.

Snow and dynamic winter storms will come back my way. Gulf-loaded power punches and I-40 specials will return. If TX and OKC can beat me 2 years in a row, it will come back my way again. If I've brought my winter blues here, I'm sorry for that. I love snow too, ya know. I just can't help it.

Good stuff OKwx2k4. Tom and others have admitted (myself also) that we are biased toward snow and cold, hence the reason most of come here. It sure did look like an Arctic Express as recent as 12Z Sat runs that highs below 0 for this coming Tuesday the 26th. Well that extreme is gone, but also is the extreme on the other side that is now not as bad and some signs of arctic trying to make a push at end of GFS run. But the computer guidance is only so good and that's why I iike seeing others thoughts etc and visit this site. To those whom criticize Tom and others ( I have also, but in a constructive way - rather than demeaning) what's your forecast?? In a field (long range forecasting) where your WRONG much more than being right, how easy to watch from the sidelines then pile on the bs that a few here do. 

Remember folks - meteorology and the forecasting of weather is one of a few scientific disciplines in where there is a near to infinite amount of variables involved. anyone who tries to tackle long range forecasting - degreed or not (still don't know what Diff Calc does to help you forecast in the 11-16 range ) I have respect for. Batting .333, being only wrong 2/3's is tremendous respect.  OKwx2k4- next snow event that lines you up - your getting a thread for it no matter if it's just one soul. You deserve it buddy!!

[Tom]

Fired up a storm thread...

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/6946-123-126-2-wave-winter-storm-potential/

[Tom]

It's the coldest morning of the season as temps are dropping like a rock with a fresh snow cover.  Down to 13F locally, with single digits in the NW burbs while regionally out in parts of IA/MN temps are subzero!  Brrrr, I stepped outside not long ago to take in a deep breath and soak it in.  I love to see the twinkle of the fresh powder from the light off of my street lamp.  The morning sunrise will look fantastic.  #Winter

 

[Grizzcoat]

This probably should go in another thread- buy I'am lazy this AM- as a grandfathered in weather pro (yes that's how I make my living and work with meteorologists (degreed) every day) the following is relevant to any month on this site---

"Science is not something which cannot be understood by the non-scientist. Those who make it such are elevating themselves or choosing to obfuscate for political reasons." As a grand fathered Met, I can bury most  other degreed mets in  meteorological jargon. ( even if they have CALC 04 or can determine the Joules per kilogram of CAPE better than I-- who cares???? -- I will put my 5K degree and 25 years of experience agst a 100K Met degree out of college any day. You see it in the AFD's every day that many young forecasters have either no clue/ or no passion or BOTH>

  I can explain things ( I think) without the scientific rhetoric to be understood by almost all. I do this at times at giving lectures in Winter Camping weather and Back Country weather forecasting when a soul is truly off the grid. . Is your aim to allow others to enjoy and learn about your passion or to impress them with your lack of ability to be understood?

Science is really nothing more than curiosity and common sense tested. With the religion of climate, we have left out the “tested” part. And from what I do professionally- the "tested" part is really getting lost. Thinks ASOS/AWOS sensors= they are junk and get added to the same climate data that were done by humans pre 1984.  I've gone on too long. Carry on.

[westMJim]

For one of the few time this winter I can report that 1.2" of new snow fell here yesterday and I now have a total of 1" on the ground.  At this time there are a few flurries here with a temperature of 21 

[Tom]

Local reporting station had temps briefly dip to 10.9F just after 6:00am convincingly bringing the coldest morning of the season thus far.  At this time, the sun is rising above the rooftops and soon enough I'll see the glow of the snow OTG.  Just made a hot cup of lemon tea and about to go shovel the snow.  This is winter.

 

[Stacsh]

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

This probably should go in another thread- buy I'am lazy this AM- as a grandfathered in weather pro (yes that's how I make my living and work with meteorologists (degreed) every day) the following is relevant to any month on this site---

"Science is not something which cannot be understood by the non-scientist. Those who make it such are elevating themselves or choosing to obfuscate for political reasons." As a grand fathered Met, I can bury most  other degreed mets in  meteorological jargon. ( even if they have CALC 04 or can determine the Joules per kilogram of CAPE better than I-- who cares???? -- I will put my 5K degree and 25 years of experience agst a 100K Met degree out of college any day. You see it in the AFD's every day that many young forecasters have either no clue/ or no passion or BOTH>

  I can explain things ( I think) without the scientific rhetoric to be understood by almost all. I do this at times at giving lectures in Winter Camping weather and Back Country weather forecasting when a soul is truly off the grid. . Is your aim to allow others to enjoy and learn about your passion or to impress them with your lack of ability to be understood?

Science is really nothing more than curiosity and common sense tested. With the religion of climate, we have left out the “tested” part. And from what I do professionally- the "tested" part is really getting lost. Thinks ASOS/AWOS sensors= they are junk and get added to the same climate data that were done by humans pre 1984.  I've gone on too long. Carry on.

Stop being blindly political.  The globe is warming fast because of humans.  not a debate.  Not the thread for this either.  

[dubuque473]

Hit 0 and -15 with the wind.
 

The dogs didn't screw around this morning when I let them out lol.

[jaster220]

(not here in mby) but this little Clipper did actually deliver above the going headline in the hardest hit areas. Several reports greater than the 2-4" theme. When I stepped out of work it was only the 2nd time the wind has had that winter bite to it as it hit my face.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
918 AM EST WED JAN 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             GOBLES                  42.37N 85.88W
01/20/2021  M6.1 INCH        VAN BUREN          MI   PUBLIC

[Hawkeye]

The Cedar Rapids airport dropped to -2º this morning, the latest first subzero temp since 2002.  Here in the city the stations dropped to the low single digits.

[Niko]

Its beautiful outside. Winter Wonderland w a new fresh snowcover and cold temps w readings at 20F. Nothing will melt in the near future, that's for sure. Anywhere from 1-3" fell last nite w that main band. Lows dipped into the teens overnite w snow in the air. Best combo!

[whatitdo]

58 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

(not here in mby) but this little Clipper did actually deliver above the going headline in the hardest hit areas. Several reports greater than the 2-4" theme. When I stepped out of work it was only the 2nd time the wind has had that winter bite to it as it hit my face.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
918 AM EST WED JAN 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             GOBLES                  42.37N 85.88W
01/20/2021  M6.1 INCH        VAN BUREN          MI   PUBLIC

picked up between 1.5 - 2 inches last night. went outside when a moderately heavy band was over us and it was great! One thing so far ive noticed about a midwest/lake effect spot winter is how relatively often it is to have 1-2 inchers a couple times a month. Really helps my mental health lol 

[whatitdo]

10 minutes ago, Niko said:

Its beautiful outside. Winter Wonderland w a new fresh snowcover and cold temps w readings at 20F. Nothing will melt in the near future, that's for sure. Anywhere from 1-3" fell last nite w that main band.

here's to hoping we score on the next potential events. Snow falling in an already winter wonderland landscape is my dreammm

[Clinton]

43 minutes ago, Niko said:

Its beautiful outside. Winter Wonderland w a new fresh snowcover and cold temps w readings at 20F. Nothing will melt in the near future, that's for sure. Anywhere from 1-3" fell last nite w that main band. Lows dipped into the teens overnite w snow in the air. Best combo!

Congrats bud surprise snows are the best.

[Niko]

29 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Congrats bud surprise snows are the best.

Always!

[Tom]

Wow, that convective band from last night produced thundersnow...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1351726282225184769

[Tom]

Looking into the pattern LR, while the models are suggesting a warmer pattern overall, I could see the -NAO paying dividends in terms of storm tracks and seeding enough cold to produce snow storms.  Models in recent runs have been correcting and showing more strength in the west-based Greenland Block.  The blocking HP's in the LR tend to grow stronger as we get closer in time which should benefit most of us on here.  For instance, the 12z GEFS are mirroring what I'm thinking will happen as blocking is growing stronger over the top allowing for storms to cut underneath.  These are trends to look for as we move along.  I also noticed the EPS doing the same thing.

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

4 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Stop being blindly political.  The globe is warming fast because of humans.  not a debate.  Not the thread for this either.  

Funny how he didn’t get reminded of the proper thread

[Tom]

12z Euro run...plan 'n simple...giddy up!  #snowmaggedon

The LRC's double barrel low that tracked across the S MW/OHV back in mid December is showing up and laying down another significant snowstorm from NE all the way into the lower lakes.  This would be very welcomed!

[OmahaSnowFan]

7 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

This probably should go in another thread- buy I'am lazy this AM- as a grandfathered in weather pro (yes that's how I make my living and work with meteorologists (degreed) every day) the following is relevant to any month on this site---

"Science is not something which cannot be understood by the non-scientist. Those who make it such are elevating themselves or choosing to obfuscate for political reasons." As a grand fathered Met, I can bury most  other degreed mets in  meteorological jargon. ( even if they have CALC 04 or can determine the Joules per kilogram of CAPE better than I-- who cares???? -- I will put my 5K degree and 25 years of experience agst a 100K Met degree out of college any day. You see it in the AFD's every day that many young forecasters have either no clue/ or no passion or BOTH>

  I can explain things ( I think) without the scientific rhetoric to be understood by almost all. I do this at times at giving lectures in Winter Camping weather and Back Country weather forecasting when a soul is truly off the grid. . Is your aim to allow others to enjoy and learn about your passion or to impress them with your lack of ability to be understood?

Science is really nothing more than curiosity and common sense tested. With the religion of climate, we have left out the “tested” part. And from what I do professionally- the "tested" part is really getting lost. Thinks ASOS/AWOS sensors= they are junk and get added to the same climate data that were done by humans pre 1984.  I've gone on too long. Carry on.

I am looking forward to all your evidence and knowledge in a peer reviewed paper showing this is all a hoax. I do hope the idiot scientists at say, NASA, will see they’ve been wrong this whole time and will finally admit this was all collusion with China and others

[Niko]

Went to PaPa Joes (food market) to get some warm tomato soup and a loft of bread and as I was driving, I cannot emphasize enough how gorgeous and winterlike it looks outside. Had on some Greek songs while driving and was enjoying the scenery. Finally Mr. January, you are cooperating. Now, give us all some more snow, especially those that haven't had any.

Btw: used my snowblower for the first time this Winter season. Measured 2.2" imby. I'll accept this nice surprise. I was just forecasted to get a passing snowshower. Was not expected to use my snowthrower. @Clinton, you are right sir when you say, "Surprise Snows" are the best because they simply are indeed.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS/CMC continues (at least 4th run in a row of GFS) of a system middle of next week somewhere in the MO,IA region.

[Grizzcoat]

Second run in a row of the Euro going bonkers. Yeah right. Dream on.

 

[westMJim]

I will put this here even though this is more of a winter 2020/21 discussion.  

2020/21 winter update. This winter so far has been mild and there has been a big-time snow drought. The winters total snow fall is now at the least amount it has ever been this late into a winter season. With just 9.4” the old record for the least amount of snow as of January 21^st was 11” set in the winter of 1905/06 and that winter was the least amount of snow fall for any winter season here at Grand Rapids with just 20” reported for the winter season. As if that was not enough the coldest it has been so far this winter is just 14° we are now at 2^nd latest date to not get at least to 13 the record. The record is January 30^th 1932.  Note if it dose not get to 10 or lower by February 1st that would be yet another record.  The record warmest annual 8low here at Grand Rapids is +8 in the winter 1920/21 can you say a 100 year event?

 

[Grizzcoat]

Euro continues 2' totals for the next 6 days.....

[OmahaSnowFan]

I remember with the nice storm we got at the end of December right after Christmas, the Euro was the model that was throwing out huge amounts of 1-2' for several days and was the last to realize it was a pipe dream after all the other models caught up with reality and lowered the amounts drastically. In the end we ended up with 5-8" across the metro area.

[Niko]

A lot of melting going on today. My grass is now visible. Unreal how we cant keep cold air in place continuously this Winter.  Temp at 41F.

[Grizzcoat]

IOWA = snow magnet  (never thought I'd write those 3 words) for most of next week per 00z GFS

 

[Grizzcoat]

Last several runs of GFS have hinted at mini Arctic shot at the end of it's runs. The 00Z run tonight has it the best yet... (for this year at least) --

[Grizzcoat]

I know others have really struggled this winter for snow ( Good Luck to ya' for the remaining winter) but i just ran some #'s for DSM. Official snow cover is measured at 6am. Every day this month has had at least 1" or more of snowcover for official readings and it looks like the entire month will have continuous snow cover of at least 1". Adding up the 6am measurements for the first 22 days (tomorrow mornings will be 1") you get 100". 100 / 22 = 4.5" avg snow cover for DSM. Not bad. Have to go back to 2010 (which destroys it) *** edit*** Jan 19' had more total -- but not as many consecutive days of snow cover) to beat it. And this on top of the 10th snowiest Dec.

[Tom]

3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

I know others have really struggled this winter for snow ( Good Luck to ya' for the remaining winter) but i just ran some #'s for DSM. Official snow cover is measured at 6am. Every day this month has had at least 1" or more of snowcover for official readings and it looks like the entire month will have continuous snow cover of at least 1". Adding up the 6am measurements for the first 22 days (tomorrow mornings will be 1") you get 100". 100 / 22 = 4.5" avg snow cover for DSM. Not bad. Have to go back to 2010 (which destroys it) *** edit*** Jan 19' had more total -- but not as many consecutive days of snow cover) to beat it. And this on top of the 10th snowiest Dec.

That's very impressive and a testament to the fact that IA certainly has had the snow magnet this season.  You guys have done well out there and pretty much avoided post storm torches that would have melted any snow away.  I think that's one of the worst things to experience is having to deal with snow melt post snowstorm and watch it all melt away.  Mother nature can be cruel but she can also be very kind.  I'm happy for those of you in IA and into N IL other than the typical Dakota's territory (sorry @FAR_Weather) have seen a consistent snow cover.  I know for a fact the ski resort in NW IL (Chestnut Mtn) has done very well this season.  TBH, this season I've seen snow OTG for an extended period as well but lacked the depth like you all W/NW of here.  I'm hoping that will change starting this weekend into Feb for many of us!

While on the topic of snow cover, the pattern ahead appears to keep on giving and the ensembles are sniffing out the part of the LRC that produced a double barrel low back on Dec 16th/17th which tracked through the S MW/OHV region.

This system should favor more of our southern MW members...esp near KC and @Clinton but may also serve as another snow on snow scenario for those in NE/IA/IL.

[Stormy]

7 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

I know others have really struggled this winter for snow ( Good Luck to ya' for the remaining winter) but i just ran some #'s for DSM. Official snow cover is measured at 6am. Every day this month has had at least 1" or more of snowcover for official readings and it looks like the entire month will have continuous snow cover of at least 1". Adding up the 6am measurements for the first 22 days (tomorrow mornings will be 1") you get 100". 100 / 22 = 4.5" avg snow cover for DSM. Not bad. Have to go back to 2010 (which destroys it) *** edit*** Jan 19' had more total -- but not as many consecutive days of snow cover) to beat it. And this on top of the 10th snowiest Dec.

We’ve had good snow cover here ever since the that late December snowstorm. It has very high water content so it’s taking longer to melt.

[Clinton]

6z Euro aswell as some other models becoming more bullish on Wed storm.  Target area appears to be Kan and MO.

[westMJim]

Good morning.  The temperature here is now down to 23 with the colder air now coming in it looks like the high for today will be 33 that was recorded at midnight. There has been a trace of snow fall so far today and a few flurries are still flying around here. This winter so far is truly one for the record books. So far just 9.4” of snow has fallen this winter season. This is the least amount of snow fall that has happened this late in the season here at Grand Rapids. The old record is 11” that had fallen in the winter of 1905/06. Another near record is that the low for the winter season so far is just 14 and this is now the 2^nd latest that it has not reached 13 or below. And to top it off it will be two years since the last time it has gotten below zero if it stays above zero by February 1^st  At this time it looks like most of the snow for early next week will stay south of the Grand Rapids metro area.

 

[Niko]

More snow has whiten back the ground as CF#1 rolls on through. At least now, its white again outside. Attm, light snow w temps at 26F. Another CF arrives later today, which will plummet temps tanite into the S.D's in spots. Coldest nite of the season on the way w more snowshowers.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Originally being from SoDak and having grandparents that lived in Spearfish, this event always fascinated me!

It rose 49 degrees in 2 minutes and then later fell 54 degrees in 27 minutes

https://www.weather.gov/unr/1943-01-22

 

[Niko]

A few snowshowers here and there, otherwise, mostly cloudy and cold w temps at 23F.

[Stormy]

Here are snow depth reports across Ia. as of yesterday, after many recent mild days. Map from IEM.

 

[Grizzcoat]

This is interesting, Long ways out - I get it- but rarely do you see the long range Euro and GFS pretty much in agreement with something like the following-- ( I used to doodle maps like this back in weather school)