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January 2021 Observations and Discussion


Grizzcoat

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6 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Originally being from SoDak and having grandparents that lived in Spearfish, this event always fascinated me!

It rose 49 degrees in 2 minutes and then later fell 54 degrees in 27 minutes😳😳😳

https://www.weather.gov/unr/1943-01-22

 

29C6FB1A-9C0D-4383-9F3F-BF682C28F5CB.jpeg

If you click on the link- there is another link in that one on the bottom with more details-- totally out of this world; here is a portion-

"I live at St. Onge, about 5 miles north and 3 miles east of the station. When I left, the temperature was between 5' and 10' below zero F., which was expected. About half way south, the windshield on the car frosted so suddenly and 80 heavily that I was well toward the ditch before I could get stopped. When I got out to clean the windshield of the car, it felt like a warm spring day with about 15 miles of wind from the SW. When I reached the station, about 8:15 a. m. the tem erature wm 45' F., with WSW 44-mile wind, and rain showers. kaving no extra thermometer at the sta- tion, I took the operator who had just gone off watch, and returned to St. Onge, where I had a glass, centigrade, chemical thermometer which I knew was reasonably accurate. We left St. Onge about 9:15 a. m.The indicated temperature was then -18.0' C. In the nest 2 miles the temperature rose to -16.1' C. -- in the next 1/4mile it raised to -13.0' C. This distance is in a creek bottom from 20 to 50 feet below the surrounding land. In the next 200 to 300 feet, t,he windshield frosted as it had before. We got out to clean it. From t,racks in the snow we found that we were only 10 feel from where I had stopped an hour before! The thermometer read plus 9.8 C.' We had come up about 80 feet out of the creek bottom. A little further south and a little higher up we looked back. There was a line of white, thick stratus following the creek, the tops from 100 to 150 feet above the surface, with heav snow blowing from the north- east. The wind was about 30 mile Sk where we were, 1/4 mile away."    That's NUTS!!

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38 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

If you click on the link- there is another link in that one on the bottom with more details-- totally out of this world; here is a portion-

"I live at St. Onge, about 5 miles north and 3 miles east of the station. When I left, the temperature was between 5' and 10' below zero F., which was expected. About half way south, the windshield on the car frosted so suddenly and 80 heavily that I was well toward the ditch before I could get stopped. When I got out to clean the windshield of the car, it felt like a warm spring day with about 15 miles of wind from the SW. When I reached the station, about 8:15 a. m. the tem erature wm 45' F., with WSW 44-mile wind, and rain showers. kaving no extra thermometer at the sta- tion, I took the operator who had just gone off watch, and returned to St. Onge, where I had a glass, centigrade, chemical thermometer which I knew was reasonably accurate. We left St. Onge about 9:15 a. m.The indicated temperature was then -18.0' C. In the nest 2 miles the temperature rose to -16.1' C. -- in the next 1/4mile it raised to -13.0' C. This distance is in a creek bottom from 20 to 50 feet below the surrounding land. In the next 200 to 300 feet, t,he windshield frosted as it had before. We got out to clean it. From t,racks in the snow we found that we were only 10 feel from where I had stopped an hour before! The thermometer read plus 9.8 C.' We had come up about 80 feet out of the creek bottom. A little further south and a little higher up we looked back. There was a line of white, thick stratus following the creek, the tops from 100 to 150 feet above the surface, with heav snow blowing from the north- east. The wind was about 30 mile Sk where we were, 1/4 mile away."    That's NUTS!!

Nice catch, I missed that other link!

I vaguely remember my grandpa telling me how he went to school with no coat and short sleeves, but while at school the windows suddenly formed the thickest frost he’s ever seen and then after school all the kids being unprepared for the bitter cold again!

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On 1/20/2021 at 1:31 AM, Grizzcoat said:

Good stuff OKwx2k4. Tom and others have admitted (myself also) that we are biased toward snow and cold, hence the reason most of come here. It sure did look like an Arctic Express as recent as 12Z Sat runs that highs below 0 for this coming Tuesday the 26th. Well that extreme is gone, but also is the extreme on the other side that is now not as bad and some signs of arctic trying to make a push at end of GFS run. But the computer guidance is only so good and that's why I iike seeing others thoughts etc and visit this site. To those whom criticize Tom and others ( I have also, but in a constructive way - rather than demeaning) what's your forecast?? In a field (long range forecasting) where your WRONG much more than being right, how easy to watch from the sidelines then pile on the bs that a few here do. 

Remember folks - meteorology and the forecasting of weather is one of a few scientific disciplines in where there is a near to infinite amount of variables involved. anyone who tries to tackle long range forecasting - degreed or not (still don't know what Diff Calc does to help you forecast in the 11-16 range ) I have respect for. Batting .333, being only wrong 2/3's is tremendous respect.  OKwx2k4- next snow event that lines you up - your getting a thread for it no matter if it's just one soul. You deserve it buddy!!

I can't thank you enough. Just can't. I'm too blessed.

And I'm absolutely looking forward to it!

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After 14 hrs above freezing with a sunny high of 41F yesterday, we are down to patchy snow. Mostly one of those "snow remains on the north side" shadow 'scapes. Not far away, where there was a decent 2-4" covering the sun couldn't so easily get to the brown weeds/grass underneath and there is still a good amount of cover so it will be a "snow on snow" event for them. Here in Marshall it will be primarily a "from scratch" scenario. Hoping for the best tho.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Late next week system needs to be watched as a piece of energy from the SW corner ejects. Someone might need to start a thread for this potential storm.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 hours ago, Niko said:

Late next week system needs to be watched as a piece of energy from the SW corner ejects. Someone might need to start a thread for this potential storm.

Ya, I think we should hold off until later this weekend...nevertheless, another opportunity showing up for parts of the MW into the OHV...

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It just dipped into the single digits imby (9F) and that implies this is the coldest air of the season...Brrrr...I did just step outside and it is a weee bit nippy out there...but I love it!  The mini torch we had the other day did melt some of the snow that feel earlier in the week leaving some open patches but still looks like winter out there.  I'm hopeful to get somewhat of a refresher or coating of new snow today.

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Was out this morning furniture shopping and it felt quite cold walking to my car (temps in the teens) w a wcf in the low s.d's. Finally, some cold weather. Skies were partly cloudy.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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If I ever get the stupid idea that a west-based La Niña is a good thing for winter weather in the south-central states, ever ever again, my dear friends here have my full permission to reprimand me and remind me of 2020-21. 🤣 That is all. Lol.

At this point, a bland ocean contrast would be great. Lol. Maybe Florida can score some snow next month! Haha.

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19 hours ago, Tom said:

It just dipped into the single digits imby (9F) and that implies this is the coldest air of the season...Brrrr...I did just step outside and it is a weee bit nippy out there...but I love it!  The mini torch we had the other day did melt some of the snow that feel earlier in the week leaving some open patches but still looks like winter out there.  I'm hopeful to get somewhat of a refresher or coating of new snow today.

10F here. Half-full water bottle in my car froze solid, and that was starting last evening with a very warmed interior. Haven't had as much as a slushy in my car any winter morning up to this point.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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00Z GFS not nearly as warm in the extended as previous runs. Low 30's for max. And this is still in the cards--- temps at NOON 2/6

sfct.conus.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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20 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

LolOkGFS_2.png

GFSNGP_sfc_temp_366.png

This part of the LRC is going to deliver the coldest air of the season for many on here right around Super Bowl weekend.  I'm fully expecting a major winter storm to cut up into the GL's right before the Super Bowl and a powerhouse Arctic shot.  Many LR signals indicate this will be the beginning of a long term, long wave pattern change across North America.  You'll be right in the vicinity of see some snow out of this pattern.

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One of the biggest features of this year's pattern has been the long term, long wave, west-based Greenland Block.  This is going to be a welcomed and key player for driving our weather pattern for the rest of this month and into Feb.  As we get deeper into the season, this block, along with the -AO will pay a lot more dividends for sustainable cold in the future.  Not to mention, is the final SSW event that will be ongoing to be the last straw to break the camels back???  This will feature the Febrrrrrruarry.....#ArcticAttack

A few days I made a suggestion to look for models to correct on the strength and magnitude of this blocking pattern across eastern Canada.  Without further ado, last nights 00z Euro Op/EPS have trended stronger with the west-based Greenland Block and this will undoubtedly alter the storm track going forward.  There is one final system that will likely add in the snow dept for parts of our Sub on the last days of the month.

 1.gif

 

Last nights 00z Euro op began to digest the stronger HP and suppressed the storm system showing up on the 31st.

5.png

 

In fact, the EPS has a much more sizable amount of real estate covered with the potential for snow across the GL's region from this system.  Of note, this would add more wrt the snow stats in the already back-loaded pattern that is setting up shop for this month and likely for the remainder of met Winter and early Spring.

2.png

 

So, where do we go from here???  If you are like me, wondering, is this turnaround that's coming this week going to have some legs???  Nature can be cruel but she can also be considerate for winter wx enthusiasts.  Is the latter forthcoming???  Yes, I truly believe that now we are seeing positive trends in the LR pattern that have been influencing our warm pattern begin to flip.  The MJO has rotated through the warmer phases for the majority of this month (3/4 and now 6/7)...

2.gif

 

On the other hand, there are now signals that the MJO is heading into Phase 8 and 1 during the 1st half of Feb....here's the temp composite for phases 8/1 in Feb...

1.png

 

In recent days, the CFSv2 weeklies and monthlies are trending quite boldly that a major pattern flip is on the horizon as we approach Feb.

2.gif

 

What is causing the models to suggest such a flip??  I believe it is the 2nd major Strat warming event that will hit...guess when...right when we open up Feb!  Isn't it fascinating to see this event line up at the open of a new month??? I find it pretty neat when nature lines up on the calendar. 

3.png

 

As we count down the remaining days of January, there are a couple more chances of snowfall across our Sub that will hopefully deliver for those who have been missed....may we all reminisce in the snowy bliss!

 

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Well there is some light snow falling here at the current time but so far just a trace amount is on the ground. As of this morning the seasonal snow fall remains at 9.4" at Grand Rapids. That is just under 3 feet below average. At Muskegon the seasonal total is 16.7" just under 40" below average. And at Lansing the total there is 13.8" That is over a foot below average.
Here is how it stands up north.
https://www.weather.gov/apx/snow
 

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Attm, cloudy skies w temps in the 20s. Some snow is possible today from wave1, along w minor accumulations. Steadier snow arrives tomorrow nite.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The Euro continues to show a big WAA snow event next weekend.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just now, Hawkeye said:

The Euro continues to show a big WAA WWA snow event next weekend.

Corrected for this region.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 minutes ago, BMT said:

Can you post a map? thanks in advance!

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Man, look at that wall of snow. Sweet! Also, that HP area there looks to be this time around further east, instead of right on top of me, so that hopefully helps the situation a bit.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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6 minutes ago, Niko said:

Man, look at that wall of snow. Sweet! Also, that HP area there looks to be this time around further east, instead of right on top of me, so that hopefully helps the situation a bit.

Except on the model the system peaks over IA/IL and weakens quite a bit before reaching Michigan.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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23 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Except on the model the system peaks over IA/IL and weakens quite a bit before reaching Michigan.

Well, I appreciate the pleasant news.....this newsflash is days away!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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56 minutes ago, Niko said:

Well, I appreciate the pleasant news.....this newsflash is days away!

You have the GFS on your side, though.  The GFS is all rain here with heavy snow (changing to rain) in Michigan.  Much will change between now and next weekend.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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27 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

You have the GFS on your side, though.  The GFS is all rain here with heavy snow (changing to rain) in Michigan.  Much will change between now and next weekend.

100%........good to have a system to track though.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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50 minutes ago, james1976 said:

How about that 970 powerhouse showing up around Feb 5th? Long ways out I know but I think @Tom has this one on his radar.

Smokes Iowa. Should be $$

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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One last post before I take a napski...the pattern that keeps on....giving???  Glad to see the Euro Op/EPS growing bolder with the strength of the Hudson Bay Block.  Current guidance is advertising a stout 1050mb HP placed north of the GL's later this weekend.  Meanwhile, a rather vigorous wave tracks out into the MW during the Sat/Sun period and slowly pivots somewhere near the Lower Lakes region.  The snow signal is growing for many members around the GL's, esp folks in IL/WI and into IN/MI.  This will likely be the next storm we track.

00z EPS...

1.png

 

 

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With yesterdays snow fall Grand Rapids is now at 10.2" for the season that is still almost 3 feet below average as of this date. Last year on this date Grand Rapids had recorded 32.5" by now on its way to a well below average seasonal total of just 53.5" So Grand Rapids is now 22.3" below were we were last year at this time. We should add to this years total this week. At this time it is cloudy here and 27

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

One last post before I take a napski...the pattern that keeps on....giving???  Glad to see the Euro Op/EPS growing bolder with the strength of the Hudson Bay Block.  Current guidance is advertising a stout 1050mb HP placed north of the GL's later this weekend.  Meanwhile, a rather vigorous wave tracks out into the MW during the Sat/Sun period and slowly pivots somewhere near the Lower Lakes region.  The snow signal is growing for many members around the GL's, esp folks in IL/WI and into IN/MI.  This will likely be the next storm we track.

00z EPS...

1.png

 

 

Should be another interesting one to watch unfold

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36 minutes ago, Tony said:

Should be another interesting one to watch unfold

Nice to see the 12z UKIE showing the system and today's 12z Euro is going big again on Sat...we'll prob be firing up a storm thread tomorrow after today/tomorrow's storm system.

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1 minute ago, Tom said:

Nice to see the 12z UKIE showing the system and today's 12z Euro is going big again on Sat...we'll prob be firing up a storm thread tomorrow after today/tomorrow's storm system.

Unfortunately Euro shreds it apart as it heads into Illinois. Probably be another storm like today but will still be watching it

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