January 2021 Observations and Discussion

[hlcater]

There's significant system in the long range (~252) with a fairly decent amount of deterministic and ensemble support. Powerhouse longwave trough traverses the country during the period and assuming a neg tilt/quality ejection from the 4 corners, could lead to a significant system for someone in the midwest. In the warm sector, assuming moisture, the general look aloft is analogous to significant severe weather outbreaks in the lower OV and Dixie.

One of the better analogs upstairs is 2/5/2008.

[Hawkeye]

Next Saturday on the Euro.  Yes, please.

[MIKEKC]

Rain and 34 degrees in KC. Terrible winter! Gut punch for me to wake up at 5am in the dead of winter and see it raining. 

 

GFS....next 16 days....more of the same....well above average temps and rain storms. STUPID WINTER!

 

At least we're getting moisture.

 

[Hawkeye]

3 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Rain and 34 degrees in KC. Terrible winter! Gut punch for me to wake up at 5am in the dead of winter and see it raining. 

 

GFS....next 16 days....more of the same....well above average temps and rain storms. STUPID WINTER!

 

At least we're getting moisture.

 

KC and Cedar Rapids aren't that far apart, but the difference is huge in winter.  It's just so much more difficult to get good snow in KC.

[bud2380]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Next Saturday on the Euro.  Yes, please.

I've been so busy with this storm, I barely paid attention to the extended.  I'd take this.  

[Niko]

Attm, its 29F under cloudy skies. WWA posted for my area for couple of inches of snow.

Looks like an active week coming up.

[Niko]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Nice to see the 12z UKIE showing the system and today's 12z Euro is going big again on Sat...we'll prob be firing up a storm thread tomorrow after today/tomorrow's storm system.

I'll name this one, maybe it will give Jaster and others the big one this time. Pin it whenever you are ready. Let me know if the dates need to get changed.

[Madtown]

 Hope we get 4-8" up here out of it... salvage 3 or 4 weeks of the snowmobile season yet.

[OKwx2k4]

*Checks models*

I get it, it's March in Oklahoma. Lol. We skipped February entirely.

I'm paying for that cool summer I got last year. Meanwhile California is going to spend 2.5 weeks below average. Because in 2021 that makes perfect sense!

Congrats to my friends up in Wisconsin, Iowa, Chitown and parts of Michigan in the next 2-3 weeks. Let it snow.

[Hawkeye]

The GFS is trending closer to the UK/Euro with next weekend's storm (i.e., trying to close off a 500 mb low farther south).

[bud2380]

Canadian and Ukie with a pretty decent snowstorm for the weekend. GFS still too warm. Which is not surprising considering the model bias 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro is about to blow up another biggie at the end of tonight's run.

[Grizzcoat]

Just saying- but if the Euro  for the weekend holds --- DSM is going to right around 2 place. 17" through the 25th. A few inches today and 4 or 5 weekend does. The 37 in 1886 is impressive for even Duluth.  Someone on here said snowfall is decreasing in the Upper Midwest. I assure you that even with some dud years these Top 10 years really inflate the avg's  DSM will have back to back TOP 10 snowiest months (Jan - FEB 19' ) * and Dec 20 Jan 21.  within two years of each other.

* snowiest JAN / FEB on record.

 

ALSO-  ALL three records for Snowiest Day / Highest 3 day total / and most snow on the Ground from JAN 1942--- -get this-- IT NEVER SNOWED AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH OF JAN 1942. NOW- THAT'S ONE UNREAL STAT.

[Tom]

For those who have ever wondered what the landscape looks like back in AZ where I reside for several months out of the year, this local reporter is about 5 miles to the East of where I live and the back drop are the mountains I look at every day.  I drive on that hwy 87 up into the mountains quite often into Payson area to go hiking, etc.  I'm thrilled that the PHX area along with the mountains have seen a lot of precip from the series of storms that tracked through the area.  I'm hearing 1-2 Feet of snow will fall up near the Payson area.  This is such a blessing from mother nature.  SW Flow will continue for the rest of this month aiding in more storm systems to track in this region.

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/video/893667

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Very cool!  But I thought you had to be at least 60 before you became a snowbird. 

Haha, ya, snow birds typically fly into the warmer climates during the winter but I don’t.  So, you can say that I follow the weather I’d prefer to enjoy. I love winter but I dislike the shoulder season of Spring, hence why I go there around March and stay for a while till it warms up back in the MW.  

 

 

[westMJim]

The snow has mostly stopped here there is some light snow grapple falling but not much  and I now have the driveway cleared and I took a snow fall measurement and I have 2.5" of new and total snow on the ground. With that snow grapple falling the temperature here is now at 28

[Hawkeye]

How about that Canadian 10-day snow map?  This is all new snow after the current storm.  Even half of this would be great.

[Stormhunter87]

I just want to point out that whatever they did with the Canadian models has turned out great. It has been reliable and great and tracking storms. It's amounts are a bit off but honestly it's been spot on this year.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, Stormhunter87 said:

I just want to point out that whatever they did with the Canadian models has turn out great. It has been reliable and great and tracking storms. It's amounts are a bit off but honestly it's been spot on this year.

Yep. GFS has been garbage since the upgrade. Late to the party or never invited. 

[Stormhunter87]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Yep. GFS has been garbage since the upgrade. Late to the party or never invited. 

Crazy thing is gfs smells the storms well, but then it is a train wreck. Although yesterday two runs before the event it was spot on for the amounts. Then the runs after bleh lol. It's a mess.

[MIKEKC]

Clinton and I have a chance at 1-2 inches of snow(maybe 3 inches in spots) tonight and we don't even get a storm thread. We have been dominated by rain storms down here while you lucky folks to our north have seen beautiful snowstorms. 

I know its a small storm and nothing compared to you big boys up north, but we'll take it. And...its actually going to snow with temps well below freezing. Almost every snow event here in the last 2 years has been with temps around 30-31, limiting snow accumulation. 

HAHAHA.....awesome to see all the big snow totals to the north of KC. Hope you all enjoyed it.  Now, please snow here tonight, because after this chance, it looks like we go back to the norm.....rain storms.

Go Chiefs!! Run it back!!

[westMJim]

The snow has picked up again here. At this time NW GR is getting moderate snow fall. 

[CentralNebWeather]

30 minutes ago, Stormhunter87 said:

Crazy thing is gfs smells the storms well, but then it is a train wreck. Although yesterday two runs before the event it was spot on for the amounts. Then the runs after bleh lol. It's a mess.

still NWS meteorologists will use it against Canadian and Euro when a storm is seen, but in the end side with Euro or Canadian. I read every disco from the region, so I still see a love or reliance on the GFS. Kind of strange actually. 

[BMT]

6 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

still NWS meteorologists will use it against Canadian and Euro when a storm is seen, but in the end side with Euro or Canadian. I read every disco from the region, so I still see a love or reliance on the GFS. Kind of strange actually. 

It's like calling your own baby ugly.  Hard for them to admit its faults.  

[Stormhunter87]

22 minutes ago, BMT said:

It's like calling your own baby ugly.  Hard for them to admit its faults.  

Okay that's really on point.

[westMJim]

I just took a new snow fall measurement and here at my house I am now up to 4" total for this event. I still think we will have to keep a eye on the weekend system.

[CentralNebWeather]

33 minutes ago, BMT said:

It's like calling your own baby ugly.  Hard for them to admit its faults.  

Now that is a great line. I might have to use that. 

[Clinton]

46 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Clinton and I have a chance at 1-2 inches of snow(maybe 3 inches in spots) tonight and we don't even get a storm thread. We have been dominated by rain storms down here while you lucky folks to our north have seen beautiful snowstorms. 

I know its a small storm and nothing compared to you big boys up north, but we'll take it. And...its actually going to snow with temps well below freezing. Almost every snow event here in the last 2 years has been with temps around 30-31, limiting snow accumulation. 

HAHAHA.....awesome to see all the big snow totals to the north of KC. Hope you all enjoyed it.  Now, please snow here tonight, because after this chance, it looks like we go back to the norm.....rain storms.

Go Chiefs!! Run it back!!

Sadly if I get 2.5 it will be my biggest snowfall this season.  Warm temps and rain through the 4th of Feb then maybe something.

[westMJim]

Today is the anniversary of the two biggest snowstorms of my life time. And of course they are the storms of January 26th 1967 and 1978.

[CentralNebWeather]

21 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Sadly if I get 2.5 it will be my biggest snowfall this season.  Warm temps and rain through the 4th of Feb then maybe something.

That storm the Euro and Canadian are showing from February 4-6 could be something, then arctic air comes behind it potentially. Long ways away, but might be a storm to track next week. 

[Minny_Weather]

Flurries falling currently with a stiff North wind. 4°F, WC -14°F.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

That storm the Euro and Canadian are showing from February 4-6 could be something, then arctic air comes behind it potentially. Long ways away, but might be a storm to track next week. 

Euro ensembles favor your area 4th-6th.  Pretty impressive this far out.

[Minny_Weather]

First WCA of the year for Fargo.

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
154 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-
038-039-054-271800-
/O.CON.KFGF.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210127T1800Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada,
Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster,
Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle,
Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah,
Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh,
Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush,
Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake,
Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids,
Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Cando, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla,
Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds,
Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, New Rockford,
Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley,
Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Valley City, Fargo,
Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin
154 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 40 below
  zero.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northwest and west central
  Minnesota and northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until noon CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

 

[Niko]

Attm, its 29F w snowshowers redeveloping over my area. Next couple of days will feature highs in the lower 20s and lows in the S.D's and low teens under partly cloudy skies, b4 the next weather system, which will be sometime during the weekend time frame and early next week.

[mlgamer]

Got a dusting here last night and it is still on the ground. SO....with another 1-2" forecast for tonight, I'm gonna say I'll get to enjoy a poor man's version of snow on snow for the first time in awhile. You just have to take what they give you...

[Stormhunter87]

May have to keep an eye on next week's storm. Cpc did mention it for this area.

[CentralNebWeather]

Jim Flowers latest video he discusses the storm for next Thursday. He says if you thought this was big you ain’t seen nothing yet. Whoa. 

[snowstorm83]

Might be able to score another inch overnight, though short range models aren't very promising. I think the city of Lincoln will have a mental breakdown if accumulating snow occurs tonight anyways. 

[Grizzcoat]

A few daylight pics of the Twin peaks on the side of driveway. My "snowblower" son!!

[CentralNebWeather]

Jim Flowers latest quote:  “Hope yesterday was not a shot across the bow for next week, when they look good this far out they usually go west. Looks like groundhog storm from a few years ago”.