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January 2021 Observations and Discussion


Grizzcoat

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24 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

whatitdo-

I will respond once to this thread and that will be it. First off- not a degreeed MET, but i have been pretty much grandfathered in with my job as one and work with several. Most MET's actually agree with Climate Change, but how is the question. Most MET's DO disagree with AGW (man made to the extent it's shown in the media) but will revert to "I agree" or they suffer "set backs' in their career. Trust me. Seen it happen many times on the broadcast MET front with many tv people let go because of their beliefs agst full out AGW. If you want a list- I can provide it. Many i know personally.  I could go on and on and on about many data points that point to a natural variation in climate being induced as AGW- one is urban heat island, but I know - that of course gets thrown out. I understand why- but no way is DSM IA going to break the all time min of -30F set on JAN 5th 1884 when official measurements were taken in river valley. If  FEB 1996 didn't break it(-26F) at the Airport - with all time record lows set in MN,IA,WI (-47F in IA) nothing will. My point before I leave is that it's not apples to apples when you compare temperatures from even 30 years ago.   Enjoy you day- but this is the last post I will have this topic in this thread. Peace out.

no worries my man i sincerely appreciate the input. We could discuss the AGW stuff in another thread sometime if that were to happen. FWIW I do agree there is an amount of unfair and lazy comparisons about this topic in the sense you have alluded to on both fronts. Have a good day as well!

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The GFS and parallel GFS both have a weak system moving through the region early next week, followed by a more significant system around Jan 23-25.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Let's keep the AGW and Political talk separate from this board as there are several members on here (including myself) that would rather discuss weather related business in here.  You can choose to contribute in a a different section of this Forum in the tab below:

 https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/forum/20-long-range-forecast-and-climate-discussions/

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I took a walk this morning and was very surprised to see how much staying power this layer of snow has.  It was a 100% SUNNY day yesterday with a high of 38F and the snow pack barely melted.  This has been the longest streak of 1"+ snow cover I have seen in a number of years.  I think its been since Dec 29th when we received 2.6" of snow that I've had a consistent snow cover in a remarkably AN temp pattern.  Those sloppy systems at the end of Dec that brought freezing rain certainly helped "build the glacier"...LOL, wish it was deeper like you guys out west and north.  I'm just glad I get to see snow OTG at this point.  I hope today's clouds help minimize any more snow melt and we get some snow-on-snow with the next system.

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

I took a walk this morning and was very surprised to see how much staying power this layer of snow has.  It was a 100% SUNNY day yesterday with a high of 38F and the snow pack barely melted.  This has been the longest streak of 1"+ snow cover I have seen in a number of years.  I think its been since Dec 29th when we received 2.6" of snow that I've had a consistent snow cover in a remarkably AN temp pattern.  Those sloppy systems at the end of Dec that brought freezing rain certainly helped "build the glacier"...LOL, wish it was deeper like you guys out west and north.  I'm just glad I get to see snow OTG at this point.  I hope today's clouds help minimize any more snow melt and we get some snow-on-snow with the next system.

I might not have an 1"+ otg, but, man, those patches of snow imby are still there and mind you, some are big ones that do not wanna melt. Feels good to at least capture a scenery like that w slightly ANT's. Better than bare ground.

Its funny you mentioned this today because "Today" was the first time in a while that I saw full blown sunshine w no clouds at all for at least a couple of hrs b4 clouds rolling back in again. That vitamin D felt good. We can certainly use it. As I was driving earlier today to go and check out this new boite that opened up near my area (take-out only of course), the sky seemed to have this deep blue, clear color, along w temps in the mid 40s, which just made me wanna drive more and more to enjoy this delightful outdoors. Absolutely stunning Wednesday afternoon weatherwise here in SEMI today.

Btw: Good potential next week for snow.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS and parallel GFS both have a weak system moving through the region early next week, followed by a more significant system around Jan 23-25.

Yes, something to keep an eye on. I have my attn on this one.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Been outside enjoying the nice weather today! I have a small yard pond that has not frozen over this winter, except for a very brief thin layer a couple of times that quickly melted. Many winters the ice is several inches thick by now. Even my goldfish have been swimming around instead of being dormant. Jan temp anomaly is currently +3.8 here.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Pretty detailed thoughts from LOT for the long range. 

Looking beyond day 7, pattern across north America continues to
appear on very consistent run to run trends of ensemble forecasts
that it will become more favorable for more sizable precipitation
and snow producers. Driving force will be a spiking poleward
ridge in the vicinity of Alaska (negative East Pacific Oscillation
(-EPO)), downstream troughing onto the west coast (negative
Pacific North American pattern (-PNA)), and quite notably, a very
impressive signal for a deeply negative North Atlantic
Oscillation (-NAO), marked by closed contour ridging over southern
Greenland on the ensemble means. Typically, strong negative
height anomalies onto the west coast portend milder Pacific driven
patterns. However, in this case, should medium range guidance be
on the right track, the high amplitude ridging to and north of
Alaska will set up cross polar flow into our source region and the
-NAO would act as a roadblock from systems cutting very far
north. So, in sum, the relatively active pattern over the next
several days could become quite active with more regular plowable
snow threats at least through the end of January.

 

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NOAA:

Today`s regional/global models maintain a surprisingly progressive
upper air pattern through the weekend given the closed nature of the
low and the amplification of the long wave structure. This is
partially due to the next round of height falls occuring in the
Plains and Midwest resulting another Great Lakes low pressure system
by Sunday. This one is not as large or closed off but offers better
snow potential with sufficiently cold air already in place even
during the day into Sunday night. Early indications point to a
larger swath of an inch or two potential accumulation by Monday
morning.

Lets start building that glacier.
&&
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Sundays system looks decent for my area for a couple of inches as of now.......

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2021_01/941863003_ScreenShot2021-01-13at3_29_28PM.thumb.png.3726de836401c6a71803af1b6cfd328d.png

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GFS  hr228 crushes SWMI/SEMI w a lot of snow. Something to keep an eye on.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Quote

Most MET's actually agree with Climate Change, but how is the question. Most MET's DO disagree with AGW (man made to the extent it's shown in the media)

Thanks for an "insider's look". Nice to know that most MET's land exactly the same place I do on the topic. One would never know that when listening to the official narrative coming from the scientific community via media.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12 hours ago, Tom said:

I took a walk this morning and was very surprised to see how much staying power this layer of snow has.  It was a 100% SUNNY day yesterday with a high of 38F and the snow pack barely melted.  This has been the longest streak of 1"+ snow cover I have seen in a number of years.  I think its been since Dec 29th when we received 2.6" of snow that I've had a consistent snow cover in a remarkably AN temp pattern.  Those sloppy systems at the end of Dec that brought freezing rain certainly helped "build the glacier"...LOL, wish it was deeper like you guys out west and north.  I'm just glad I get to see snow OTG at this point.  I hope today's clouds help minimize any more snow melt and we get some snow-on-snow with the next system.

43F and sunny here for a few hours this pm. Felt just like a nice early March day. Snow's pretty much toast other than piles (never got to drifts) where people bothered to move the little we got. I have 2 south facing rose bushes that still have some green leaves that never died. A house on the cross street has grass as green as mid-summer, and it's a NORTH facing lot. You know what's really pathetic? Just a half county north or NW of here still had like a solid 3" and up by Lansing I saw areas with even more despite the low 40's and sun. Had to be up that way on my day off.

But wait, there's more! The first 12 days of this month are actually a MASSIVE improvement over the same period a year ago, lol.

Jan 1-12, 2020:  2 Sub-freezing days, 0.8" frozen

Jan 1-12, 2021:  6 Sub-freezing days, 2.4" frozen

Talk about MET winter dumpster fires!

I've had one legit winter day (night actually) when I snapped that photo of my Christmas lights late on the 29th. It was raining by the time I awoke the following morning. All other snows have been immediately melting or that ZR on NYD. I don't include the dusting on the 25th. Cold it was, but didn't even cover the ground. Glad you've had some better covering over your way bud. I know it was a long time coming there as well.

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 hours ago, Niko said:

GFS  hr228 crushes SWMI/SEMI w a lot of snow. Something to keep an eye on.

Has to be wrong then 🤣

Was correct - congrats Indy!

EDIT. Kinda important you say which run of a model you're referring to. I see it must've been the 18z as the 12z was a rainer, and the 14/0z is a whiff south. Either are more likely than a direct hit imho. Nice try tho. Can you wake me when a decent snow is knocking on my door, not on a single Op run beyond 200 hrs?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Has to be wrong then 🤣

Was correct - congrats Indy!

EDIT. Kinda important you say which run of a model you're referring to. I see it must've been the 18z as the 12z was a rainer, and the 14/0z is a whiff south. Either are more likely than a direct hit imho. Nice try tho. Can you wake me when a decent snow is knocking on my door, not on a single Op run beyond 200 hrs?

Why do we keep getting whiffed on significant snowfall smh. Even GRR is underwhelmed that all our chances for snow for next 7 days are light and add up to 2 inches at best. 

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We are now 14 days into January 2021 and it is still mild with very little snow fall. The mean for the month is now at 29.8 and that is good for a departure of +5.0 and Grand Rapids remains at 2.2” of snow fall for the month. And for the season 7.5” Grand Rapids is now over 30” below average is the snow fall department. And even in norther Michigan reporting locations are now below average for total snow fall

https://www.weather.gov/apx/snow

At this time it is clear here with a temperature of 29.

 

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11 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

 

For midwest/great lakes region though, GEFS and GEPS do not agree; in fact they are very different especially in 1/25 - 1/29 timeframe. GEFS with a lot of positive snow depth change; GEPS with minimal and maybe even less snow depth change. Bets on which one plays out?

I'd go with trends.  Always.  And the trend is not our friend.  Everything past 10 days showing cold has not panned out this year up to this year, why would it change now? 

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15 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I'd go with trends.  Always.  And the trend is not our friend.  Everything past 10 days showing cold has not panned out this year up to this year, why would it change now? 

lol no reason it would change at all. Honestly probably won't look at any model forecast past 120 hours. Seems like the more attention paid to the long range, the more likely it doesn't pan out. I'd rather just be more or less surprised in the 5 day time frame rather than anticipate a change >5 days out only to be disappointed. Grateful for the long range forecasters here and abroad in their success for predicting potential storms/cold and their time frames, but location on where it tracks is the extraordinary challenge - only mother nature herself truly knows ya feels

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2 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

lol no reason it would change at all. Honestly probably won't look at any model forecast past 120 hours. Seems like the more attention paid to the long range, the more likely it doesn't pan out. I'd rather just be more or less surprised in the 5 day time frame rather than anticipate a change >5 days out only to be disappointed. Grateful for the long range forecasters here and abroad in their success for predicting potential storms and their time frames, but location on where it tracks is the extraordinary challenge - only mother nature herself truly knows ya feels

Well said. Especially " Grateful for the long range forecasters here and abroad in their success for predicting potential storms and their time frames, but location on where it tracks is the extraordinary challenge - only mother nature herself truly knows ya feels"

Dude this current system is on the doorstep if not in the vestibule.  And look at the models. No wonder trained METS call models "guidance". It does take serious skill to forecast (accurately - or good enough to not get canned)  and they earn every D**n penny.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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14 hours ago, whatitdo said:

Why do we keep getting whiffed on significant snowfall smh. Even GRR is underwhelmed that all our chances for snow for next 7 days are light and add up to 2 inches at best. 

As I posted prior. We had a crazy active stretch of winters (14/15/16) with waaay AN amount of warning level storms. The last 3 winters, nature's been finding creative ways to balance that out against all odds of indices, etc.

Quote


Overall, we are not impressed with any of the snow chances
through the 7 day forecast. There will be some occasional snow,
both synoptic and lake effect, but nothing that is going to rise
to a significant level.

Personally, with 11-12 giving our region a "decent" amount of snow for such a lame winter, I'd have to go back to the Mega-Nino's of 97-98 and 82-83 for an example of winters this BAD. There was also the cold but snow-less 79-80 which featured a similar dearth of LES. I still had my home in Traverse in Feb of '98 and iirc, they recorded ZERO snowfall that entire month which is truly anomalous for that locale. Just horrible timing for you to be here your first winter - sorry

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 hours ago, westMJim said:

We are now 14 days into January 2021 and it is still mild with very little snow fall. The mean for the month is now at 29.8 and that is good for a departure of +5.0 and Grand Rapids remains at 2.2” of snow fall for the month. And for the season 7.5” Grand Rapids is now over 30” below average is the snow fall department. And even in norther Michigan reporting locations are now below average for total snow fall

https://www.weather.gov/apx/snow

At this time it is clear here with a temperature of 29.

 

At this time it is clear(ly not our winter):

 

20210113 MRCC 30d Snowfall vs avg.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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15 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Personally, with 11-12 giving our region a "decent" amount of snow for such a lame winter, I'd have to go back to the Mega-Nino's of 97-87 and 82-83 for an example of winters this BAD. There was also the cold but snow-less 79-80 which featured a similar dearth of LES. I still had my home in Traverse in Feb of '98 and iirc, they recorded ZERO snowfall that entire month which is truly anomalous for that locale. Just horrible timing for you to be here your first winter - sorry

hahah it's all good man; still more snow I've seen in a season than I can remember. Is there a link to the data you have from those winters you've mentioned? And just based on how it's going so far, do you think this one will at least give us close to the snowfall totals from the winters the past 3 seasons? I feel like I'd be lucky to break 30 even 20 inches for the season right now seeing kalamazoo has really only had 7-9 inches so far. 

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29 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Euro showing quite a storm over the Central Plains at the end of the 12Z run.  GFS and CMC also showing storminess next weekend.  A time to watch for those of us that have been missed for the last several weeks.

Euro 100.png

Looking forward to it.  Thats the first of a couple of big storms that will effect our regions to close out Jan.

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14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looking forward to it.  Thats the first of a couple of big storms that will effect our regions to close out Jan.

Looks good.  Late January to April is when we seem to have our big storms in the last decade.  Hoping to get back to tracking a storm or two.  Seems like it's been awhile.

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21 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Could really use some storms around here as the drought continues.  

When was the last time even a moderately strong pacific low came ashore dropped to the 4 corners area and completely traversed the rockies without breaking apart?  Drought conditions really show how rare that has been, going back to last winter.  

Drought Monitor for usdm

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2 hours ago, whatitdo said:

hahah it's all good man; still more snow I've seen in a season than I can remember. Is there a link to the data you have from those winters you've mentioned? And just based on how it's going so far, do you think this one will at least give us close to the snowfall totals from the winters the past 3 seasons? I feel like I'd be lucky to break 30 even 20 inches for the season right now seeing kalamazoo has really only had 7-9 inches so far. 

Do you live right in Kazoo of if not what direction? For Kalamazoo the average snow fall is around 74" but it would be more to the west. Now for some of the winters that you asked about. While for Grand Rapids not Kazoo here are the snow fall totals for some recent winters. 2016/14 116.0" for 2014/15 78.1" for 2015/16 61.1" going back a little more the winters of 2007/08 had 107.0" and the winter of 2008/09 had 104.5" On the other side of the coin the winter of 2011/12 only 51.2" Last winter only 53.5" fell and in 1999/00 54.5" fell 7.8" of that fell in April. And of course so far this winter only 7.5" has fallen so far.

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9 hours ago, whatitdo said:

hahah it's all good man; still more snow I've seen in a season than I can remember. Is there a link to the data you have from those winters you've mentioned? And just based on how it's going so far, do you think this one will at least give us close to the snowfall totals from the winters the past 3 seasons? I feel like I'd be lucky to break 30 even 20 inches for the season right now seeing kalamazoo has really only had 7-9 inches so far. 

Not clear. The string of recent good winters or the trio of duds??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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