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January 2021 Observations and Discussion


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12z GFS looking interesting for Wed-Thurs. Thermals look marginal of course though. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Just started the change over here. Bitter sweet as we sit and wait to put our pup down. 

Let's keep the AGW and Political talk separate from this board as there are several members on here (including myself) that would rather discuss weather related business in here.  You can choose to co

A few daylight pics of the Twin peaks on the side of driveway. My "snowblower" son!!

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LNK has jumped from 0 QPF on the 00z/6z to 0.39" on 12z so that's not bad trend at least. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Models are suppressing the system south as it moves into the midwest.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

December's snow fall extremes here in the recent years is a ridiculous example of an atmosphere that swings like an old clock pendulum. But the undeniable trend has been warm and "snow-less". 

My Dec average = 13"

2020 = 3.6"

2019 = 7.1"

2018 = 2.0"

2017 = 24.2"

2016 = 27.6"

2015 = 5.3"

2014 = 1.2"

2013 = 17.2"

 

It will change. I know it will.

The other side of that pendulum swing is in progress right now as the tropics dump stored heat to the arctic. A 929 low in AK is a clue here, along with most tropical activity since 1755.

Add low solar, volcanic activity, etc, and you get the idea.

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The roads in my neighborhood are still pretty bad. I think they plowed just the snow on the top and it left an icy layer behind. I guess they're just waiting on the warm up now lol. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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I realize CPC has a warm bias- but this is wash,rinse and repeat flood the nation with Pacific air. Latest Week 3/4 Temperature Outlook

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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From PP
Friday, January 01, 2021 8:14:38 AM
European weekly update starting showing the impacts of the major blocking and polar vortex weakening
 

From the Anchorage weather service yesterday:

A new Alaska land-based low pressure record has been set! Shemya, Alaska, dropped to 924.8mb at 2159Z (1259 AKST) today. The previous accepted record was from a ship in Dutch Harbor at 925mb in 1977. Pressure is now slowly rising at Shemya.

TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST: European weeklies that updated Thursday night showing below-normal temperatures from the central Plains to the Southeast. This will be mainly impacted by the frequency of storms in the region. There will probably not be a lot of Arctic air available due to the warm pattern in Canada leading up to this period, but we feel that many places will still average 3-5 degrees Fahrenheit below normal for the period. There can be more ice and snow as well, perhaps even in the Southeast (lower to moderate confidence).

European weeklies week two 7-day departures ending Jan. 17:590x442_01010132_eurowkend17th.jpgEuropean weeklies week three 7-day departures ending Jan. 24590x442_01010132_euro7day24th.jpg

A sudden stratospheric warming event (rush of warming in the stratosphere) has begun and will peak during the first week of January. This will weaken the polar vortex sending cold to the midlatitudes. The question still remains as to what side of the globe will have the biggest surge of cold. We expect the U.S. to get some arctic surges, but the moderate La Nina, bad positioning of the MJO and persistent milder marine air flooding the northern tier of the nation can work against arctic takeover in week three and early week four period. The coldest air for the U.S may hold off until the very end of January and start of February.

Lets break it down by looking at the at upper heights from the European weeklies last night.

The strong block in central and eastern Canada and a strong jet across the Northwest and western Canada through mid-January will be the dominant features. The southern chill will be mainly impacted by the higher-than-normal frequency of storms producing below-normal temperatures. But what about the influence of the polar vortex disruption and arctic air intrusions for the U.S.? Referring to yesterday's post, to get a strong arctic push, we need to see a change in the northern Pacific from an upper-low over an upper-high setup to a full upper-high pushing north into Alaska. The European weeklies that updated Thursday night are showing some signs of this occurrence, but later in the month.

European weeklies 7-day average upper level heights ending Jan. 17590x442_01010201_euroweekhgtwk2.jpgEuropean weeklies 7-day average upper level heights ending Jan. 24590x442_01010201_eurowk3hgt.jpgEuropean weeklies 7-day average upper-level heights ending Jan. 31: Here there is a connection to northeast Asia over the pole and through western Canada and into the U.S. This is a good setup for arctic air invasion, last few days of January into the start of February. 590x442_01010202_eurowk4hgt.jpgThe MJO is forecast to pass through phase 3 and 4 during the middle of January. These are mild phases for the East. This will fight against Arctic air reaching U.S., especially the East. If the MJO is able to swing to phases 7 and 8 later in the month, then we would have more support for major Arctic air reaching the U.S. 590x590_01011034_mjo.jpgPHASE Chart: This shows that phase 3 and 4 are milder phases across the North and East during this period. 590x434_12300127_phase.jpg

So,

- Expect high frequency and big systems to move into the Northwest and Northern California next two weeks.

- Temperatures above normal across the northern Plains and Midwest through mid-month, turning colder late month

- Active southern storm track due to strong blocking in the eastern Canada through week three of January at least. Potential big storm east between the 11th and 12th.

- Arctic air from polar vortex weakening heads first to Europe and eastern Asia mid January but can reach the U.S. late January and early February, leaning toward northern Rockies Plains to the South and interior Southeast. An east coast storm may pull the cold east. MJO supports late surge rather than mid month surge.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Big potential w the Jan 3rd-4th snow system coming this weekend for SMI. This can be an overachiever w several inches possible and could be within the "Warning" criteria in spots.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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13 hours ago, Tom said:

The latest CanSIPS seasonal came out today and wouldn't ya know it...this run shows the massive -NAO blocking pattern all across eastern Canada.  Prob the biggest miss I've seen and no model saw it coming.  I'll be honest, heading into the winter season, when I saw the Super ensemble (Euro/Ukmet) showing absolutely ZERO high lat blocking, I was getting worried.  Once I saw the Strat warming in the longer range models in late Nov/early Dec, my worries began to subside.  Now, here we are, a nowcast moment, we see the grace of Ol' Man Winter returning.

 

1.gif

It was good to see this part of the pattern show up on todays 12z Euro Control.  The artic is coming!

Slide08.jpg

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Next week system has gone liquid on GFS. Canadian snow. When did we just go through this this? Just Tuesday.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Impressive radiational cooling right over the heart of the MW in parts of IA where temps have tanked into the single digits.  Deep snow cover and HP will do the trick.  Has anyone else notice their grid temps trend lower for next week?  Especially those who keep adding to their snow pack around the MW/GL's region.   I once had low 40's but now low/mid 30's are in the grid for next week.  Speaking of snow pack, while we are going through an AN temp regime, I find it rather interesting that through the next 10 days the Euro is forecasting most of us to maintain their snow.  If it holds true, that is #winning in my book.

1.png

 

I forgot to mention, but I wanted to wish everyone a Happy New Year as we welcome 2021!  The start of a new decade is upon us and what I believe will be the beginning of the "Roaring 20's".

 

 

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Models are really bouncing around with the mid-week clipper but the ensembles seem to have a better handle on it.  Over the last few runs, the GGEM and GEFS have been rock steady tracking this system right through MW.  I'll prob fire up a thread for this one later today if the 12z suite of runs remain steady.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

Models are really bouncing around with the mid-week clipper but the ensembles seem to have a better handle on it.  Over the last few runs, the GGEM and GEFS have been rock steady tracking this system right through MW.  I'll prob fire up a thread for this one later today if the 12z suite of runs remain steady.

 

 

This month is going to keep our hands full. I love it though.

Like you said, the roaring 20s. 

As my redneck personality says at times like these, "Let's git er done..." :)

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GFS and parallel GFS are both dismal for the next 1-2 weeks.... GFS is nothing but rain, parallel is nothing, period.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The UK has shifted way south with next week's system.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro is a nothingburger as well, weak and suppressed.  Hopefully, the second half of the month will get exciting.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Something to keep an eye on. As of now, it looks like a quick hitter. Maybe a couple of inches at most, but sometimes, these things can overachieve, so bares watching.

https://s.w-x.co/next_storm_poster_0102.png

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Looks like at least the first half of January is a lost cause. Lincoln is 50% of seasonal snow average already, but no real cold. Lowest high temp so far has been 21. Something's gotta give by late January, I hope. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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One of the largest dense (freezing) fog advisories I can remember.image.png.46cb7bfa38b7d08766ea5cc6e56b878f.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Classic example of the contrast between offices wrt tonight's "event".

GRR:

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021

- Rather mundane weather expected the next 7 days

Overall the pattern for the next 7 days looks pretty uneventful.
The main weather comes tonight into Sunday morning in the form of
a strip of light snow across Southern Lower MI. Outside of that,
there are no major system to deal with or intrusions of Arctic
air.

IWX:

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 717 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021

A quick round of intense snow will overspread the area later tonight
into Sunday morning. Most locations will see one to two inches with
up to 3 inches over northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio. Snow exits
by late morning with highs in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.Update...
Issued at 717 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021

Trends in near term guidance along with upstream sat/radar depiction
of vigorous sw disturbance and attendant baroclinic leaf lifting out
of nrn AR and expansion of radar returns through cntrl TN/wrn KY
along leading edge of return moisture plume. This portents a brief
period of mod-hvy snow likely to develop after midnight. Some nw
displacement of H7 dilatation axis also noted in model guidance and
suspect a robust deformation response aloft will occur overhead for
a time late tonight. Thus have backed prior gridded stripe of higher
qpf a bit nwwd esp under the guise of related H7 pivot point shaping
up further nw from prior. Otherwise with a period of low static
stability aloft timed with wwd arching but brief trowal, some banded
enhancement likely which may yield some over performance in snow
amounts northeast. Regardless rapid newd progression of upper sys
lends a risk of going any higher with top end snow probs even though
they may verify correct in some locations far northeast. Otherwise
primarily a snow event with drizzle persisting this evening before
ice nucleation takes over with arrival of upstream mid level
moisture slug.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Hoping this last wave is the "little wave that could"

206079939_202101031amSurf.jpg.2e92facebaad4bacda93c236be9cc329.jpg

I'd be watching models if they weren't over-promising liars. Only Tuesday night's storm was modeled anywhere close to what the end result was around here. Hearing reports of some serious totals further south. Just don't know if the good stuff can/will make it up this far? Guess I'll find out in the morning during yet another now-cast.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Drive to work (once you get just 8 miles west of here) was VERY picturesque where that heavy snow band came through last night. @whatitdo Did your end of town get in on that as well?

20210102_135551.thumb.jpg.0e736352d21aed689938291cc7d41edf.jpg

 

 

Some decent parking lot piles at work now after the last 2 waves..

20210102_140937.thumb.jpg.e2e3d432cc20eb91468fe8f7c06795a1.jpg

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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20 hours ago, Tom said:

Impressive radiational cooling right over the heart of the MW in parts of IA where temps have tanked into the single digits.  Deep snow cover and HP will do the trick.  Has anyone else notice their grid temps trend lower for next week?  Especially those who keep adding to their snow pack around the MW/GL's region.   I once had low 40's but now low/mid 30's are in the grid for next week.  Speaking of snow pack, while we are going through an AN temp regime, I find it rather interesting that through the next 10 days the Euro is forecasting most of us to maintain their snow.  If it holds true, that is #winning in my book.

1.png

 

I forgot to mention, but I wanted to wish everyone a Happy New Year as we welcome 2021!  The start of a new decade is upon us and what I believe will be the beginning of the "Roaring 20's".

 

 

But wait! I thought nobody south of 45N was going to have any snow to hang onto.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Hoping this last wave is the "little wave that could"

206079939_202101031amSurf.jpg.2e92facebaad4bacda93c236be9cc329.jpg

I'd be watching models if they weren't over-promising liars. Only Tuesday night's storm was modeled anywhere close to what the end result was around here. Hearing reports of some serious totals further south. Just don't know if the good stuff can/will make it up this far? Guess I'll find out in the morning during yet another now-cast.

Radar looks pretty good for your area to get a nice re-fresher.  This may be the only system of any substance for the next 7 days.  Enjoy it while you can and hope you can score a couple inches.  I already received a dusting and it appears that I may still get clipped on the northern edge.

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7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

But wait! I thought nobody south of 45N was going to have any snow to hang onto.

I'd say many of us on here are doing pretty well in this "warm" pattern and scoring some hits, esp those out in IA who have a real good snow pack.  I just hope the snow cover can stick around for a little while longer bc I know the real deal cold is coming soon enough.  My snow pack is so dense and almost like a frozen sheet of ice from all the freezing rain.  Thankfully, it won't nuke as bad as the fluffier snow.  Gotta say, I love waking up and seeing snow OTG.  It's been such a long time since I've seen snow OTG.  I left for Arizona last year on March 1st so you can get an idea of how long its been...LOL...

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I took a look at the LM water temps and its not surprising that they are running warm, but this warm is almost unheard of this late in the season!  There is a small pool of 48 degree water surrounded by a larger pool of 46 degree water across the southern part of LM.  Boy, once that arctic air comes down there are going to be some whicked LES events.

 

Surface Temps

 

Speaking of LES, all the global models are starting to see the shift in the North American wx pattern I have envision by the 15th (ish) of the month.  While it has been a rather active period and most of this Sub (central/northern) members have seen an appreciable amount of snow, there will come a period in the not so distant future where more of us will share in the wealth.  The models are really struggling on the mid-week system due to all the blocking ongoing.  Overnight ensembles primarily take this system through the C/S MW states.  I hope we see some more consistency and a little more "Umpff" from the models today.

 

Following this system, the next one on deck should be showing up between the 10th-12th and the data is suggesting a more southerly route which has the potential to cut up towards the OHV/Lower Lakes region.  I'm not to confident as to how far north it will track bc of the magnitude of the -NAO block.  Nonetheless, the wave train continues and then we will approach the period where I think a more stronger and amplified storm tracks through the MW/GL's region between the 13th-15th that ultimately taps into the arctic. 

The EPS has been slowly trending towards the GEFS/GEPS and last nights 00z EPS run took another step forward.  All the models now see the amplifying N.A. 500mb pattern which suggests tapping into the Arctic source region.  The fun and games are not that far away and will be here to stay...at least through the remainder of this month.  I really think its a "hit and hold" type of pattern that's coming for our Sub Forum.

1.png

 

00z GGEM...

gem-ens_z500aMean_namer_9.png

00z GEFS...

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_9.png

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Looking at the national snow cover map and you can see the obvious snow hole over MT and the Dakota's...need that to fill up by mid month which I think will happen around the 13th (ish) as the jet begins to come out of the NW.  Systems should begin to traverse into the N Rockies as a more La Nina type pattern locks in.  

nsm_depth_2021010305_National.jpg

 

 

 

Regionally, the La Crosse area and near N/C WI are hurting in the snow dept...

nsm_depth_2021010305_Northern_Great_Lake

 

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