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January 2021 Observations and Discussion


Grizzcoat

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30 minutes ago, hlcater said:

All our pattern needs is cold. The activity is there. But will be hard to build up a deep snowpack in such a mild pattern.

Yep, 6.5" in Lincoln is already hard to enough to get. It happens, but now even in the heart of winter it'll be mostly gone by early next week. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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The Euro Weeklies just came out and they pretty much mirror what the JMA weeklies showed earlier today.  Coast to coast storms throughout the month and then the 500mb pattern amps up suggesting arctic air becoming a player by the 15th(ish) and into Feb.  Massive west-based Greenland block throughout the run.  Incredible pattern that can produce quite a snowy regime.  I'm fired up!

The Week of the 10th...this is when the real party gets started...I'm looking for a couple Big hits (13th-15th) & (18th-21st)...this will  be loaded...

 

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I saw the mid week storm on the Euro next week that Tom posted above, could be our next one to track.  What else I noted, which has been shared by some is the extreme above normal temps throughout most of Canada.  I looked at the 10 day Euro and for most of Canada, but in particular the eastern half of Canada 850mb temps are 20-30 degrees above normal for almost the entire next 10 days.  Truly impressive.  I'm not well versed in this enough to say what it means, other than it should prevent storms from tracking straight into Canada.  There isn't any impressive cold in the lower 48, but from what I have seen, still cold enough for snow.  Quite possibly much like this last system, just cold enough for snow and followed up by normal to slightly above normal temps behind the system, instead of the typical cool shot we see after storms.  I actually prefer that because then we get some melting, especially on driveways and secondary roads.  So if the storm track is further south and temps are near normal (as forecast), I don't see any reason to believe that we can't get another storm or two over the next couple of weeks.  Models have hinted at some snow and we're seeing it on today's Euro as mentioned.  

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9 hours ago, Tom said:

The Euro Weeklies just came out and they pretty much mirror what the JMA weeklies showed earlier today.  Coast to coast storms throughout the month and then the 500mb pattern amps up suggesting arctic air becoming a player by the 15th(ish) and into Feb.  Massive west-based Greenland block throughout the run.  Incredible pattern that can produce quite a snowy regime.  I'm fired up!

The Week of the 10th...this is when the real party gets started...I'm looking for a couple Big hits (13th-15th) & (18th-21st)...this will  be loaded...

 

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From Met "OHwx"

Quote

With an active sub-tropical jet and developing split flow over the western U.S., along with a persistent, west-based -NAO, this would begin increasing the risk for winter storms across the eastern and central U.S. around or just after January 10th. It would not immediately be a very cold pattern, but it could be a snowy one for some areas. 

The EPS continues to retrograde the trough into northeast Asia in the 10-15 day range while the Pacific jet continues pulling back. I'm not sure this lasts long, but could give a window for ridging into Alaska after mid-month. With a split flow over the western US and continued -NAO, a window of ridging over Alaska could both introduce colder air, but also lead to a quite active pattern for the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes into the Northeast beginning around or just after the middle of January. 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

From Met "OHwx"

 

Thanks for sharing this info which pretty much lines up to a "T" with what I have in mind.  We have many positive factors that are beginning to line up for our region to finally be placed in an ideal location to reap the rewards.  I think this system we are seeing on New Year's day is going to be a tell-tale sign where to expect the storm track to develop for the S Stream cutters that I'm anticipating over the next several weeks.  When this years LRC pattern began setting up in Oct/Nov, I knew we needed to have a -NAO to develop in order to be the benefactor.  That was my pre-season idea and one I saw early on whereby the climate models kept missing in their Long Lead forecasts.  It's now becoming evident all of the models didn't see the west-based -NAO, the key blocking pattern for the MW/GL's region.  This prevents hard cutters to track NW of us and a big reason why we kept being on the sidelines over the past several years....will our patience be rewarded???  Time will tell...but my gut says we look pretty darn good ATM.

 

Speaking of which, if it wasn't for the west-based -NAO, the next system on the calendar is looking likely to track/pivot right over the MW/GL's region mid next week.  Check out the latest GEFS trends for this system and a BIG reason why I commented the other day to watch for the models in the extended period to trend colder/snowier because I've seen this script play out before.  The EPS has also trended better for a lot of us around these parts for this storm.  This will in all likelihood be our next system to track that has a "hybrid clipper" type look that will plug into GOM moisture.  I love tracking these slow moving/pivoting systems.

 

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Happy New Year!  Good riddance to 2020 a year that everyone will remember but would rather forget. Now here is some information on the past month and year at Grand Rapids Michigan.  For December the mean at Grand Rapids was 32.4 that is a departure of +3.2° The high for the month was 53 on the 10th and the low was 18 on the 15,25 and 31st  That low of 18 is the 2nd warmest low for any December in recorded history at Grand Rapids with the warmest being 21 in 2015. For the year the mean was 50.1° and that makes 2020 the 12th warmest of record at Grand Rapids. There have been 6 of the top 12 in the last 20 years. There was 37.44” of rain and melted snow in 2020. The high for the year was 94 on July 3rd and 7th the low for the year was a mild +4 on February 14 and 15th That is the 5 warmest low for any year at Grand Rapids. And it was just the 13th year that Grand Rapids did not get to zero or below. All in all a rather mild year.

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The latest CanSIPS seasonal came out today and wouldn't ya know it...this run shows the massive -NAO blocking pattern all across eastern Canada.  Prob the biggest miss I've seen and no model saw it coming.  I'll be honest, heading into the winter season, when I saw the Super ensemble (Euro/Ukmet) showing absolutely ZERO high lat blocking, I was getting worried.  Once I saw the Strat warming in the longer range models in late Nov/early Dec, my worries began to subside.  Now, here we are, a nowcast moment, we see the grace of Ol' Man Winter returning.

 

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On 12/31/2020 at 5:27 AM, Tom said:

Happy New Year's Eve!  As we wrap up what has been a year full of anomalous wx throughout our country, what do we have to look forward to this month??  Boy, I'll tell ya...there are a many great things on the horizon for winter wx enthusiasts.  The data keeps showing me what my gut has been saying all along that the models were getting it all wrong over the last few weeks for this month.  Why?  Well, there are many reasons as to why but I'll comment on a few of them that to me are the most important.

High Latitude Blocking...Check...

Major Mid-Winter Strat Warming...Check...

Active STJ...Check...

Cold Air...Check...while marginal during Week 1, it progressively gets colder heading into Week 2...

 

Following our New Year's system, we are going to enter a pattern that will feature several "Bowling Ball" systems.  You can send a special "Thank You" to mother nature for delivering an ideally placed SSW and monster Greenland Block.  I'm not expecting significant storms for the first couple systems that will track through the central Plains/MW region, but the later period (13th-15th) has my attn to become a large scale "Southern Stream Dream"...

The EPS/GEFS are starting to hone in on our next weaker system tracking due west/east across the central/eastern Sub during the 5th-7th period (my initial call was between the (6th-9th).  I am expecting the models to trend a bit cooler to allow for more snow production as they digest the blocking a bit better along with their tendency to be too warm in the medium range.  Following this system, there appears to be another sneaky one that could follow this storm right on its heels in Back-To-Back fashion on the 9th-11th period.  Then, the pattern turns ripe for arctic air to filter into the pattern and produce what could be the seasons first real monster storm of the season.  Last night's 00z Euro Control flashed what I had envisioned.  @OKwx2k4 this could be your storm...

 

 

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In a nutshell, if your looking for an active pattern, look no farther...the northern tier folks may miss out on the bigger storm systems but should have opportunities, esp when the pattern turns more out of the NW or a stray clipper enters the pattern while rounding the base of an exiting trough (this is a feature of this year's LRC pattern that I've noticed since the autumn).  By the time we enter the middle part of the month, I firmly believe it's going to be a ridiculous ride for the remainder of January.  Saddle Up...Winter Is Coming Back...

 

I'll end this post by sharing the U.S. snow cover map...overall, a lot of us are finally sharing in the wealth...IMHO, this will pattern will continue in the weeks ahead...

nsm_depth_2020123005_National.jpg

 

My apologies, this will be my last comment on this post (it's taken my about 45 min to put this together)...what better way but to finish off this LR post with today's latest JMA weeklies run...all I gotta say, saddle up folks...this model is flashing a monster west-based Greenland Block along with a -AO (I knew it was missing the blocking but now catching onto it)...

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Week 3-4...Temp/Precip...Wet/Active and COLD!!!  The arctic attack will be back during 2nd half of the month...I'm tickled with excitement my friends...

 

Y202012.D3012_gl0.png

 

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That was a GREAT write up. I'm pretty sure you covered everything very very well.

It's looking like what I'd call a "blitz" of storms. Going to be crazy, hard to keep up with and mostly a lot of fun. :)

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

The latest CanSIPS seasonal came out today and wouldn't ya know it...this run shows the massive -NAO blocking pattern all across eastern Canada.  Prob the biggest miss I've seen and no model saw it coming.  I'll be honest, heading into the winter season, when I saw the Super ensemble (Euro/Ukmet) showing absolutely ZERO high lat blocking, I was getting worried.  Once I saw the Strat warming in the longer range models in late Nov/early Dec, my worries began to subside.  Now, here we are, a nowcast moment, we see the grace of Ol' Man Winter returning.

 

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It took a lot for you and I to make the calls we did through all that. Glad we didn't let 90+ percent of modeling throw us off what we knew. Remained both objective and correct. Takes courage and hard work to do that, buddy. Well done, sir.

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15 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Also, if you are looking for where the cold is, check Siberia.  Temps held in the -30s to -40s+ below for huge chunks throughout the next 10 days on the 00z GFS I looked at last night.  

When that gets pushed off over the top, going to give 2011 a run at cold.

#1978-79

#2000-01

#2010-11

I think that was as good of an analog set as any. Still holding.

I won't post 4 times in a row again. I'm so sorry.

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December's snow fall extremes here in the recent years is a ridiculous example of an atmosphere that swings like an old clock pendulum. But the undeniable trend has been warm and "snow-less". 

My Dec average = 13"

2020 = 3.6"

2019 = 7.1"

2018 = 2.0"

2017 = 24.2"

2016 = 27.6"

2015 = 5.3"

2014 = 1.2"

2013 = 17.2"

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

December's snow fall extremes here in the recent years is a ridiculous example of an atmosphere that swings like an old clock pendulum. But the undeniable trend has been warm and "snow-less". 

My Dec average = 13"

2020 = 3.6"

2019 = 7.1"

2018 = 2.0"

2017 = 24.2"

2016 = 27.6"

2015 = 5.3"

2014 = 1.2"

2013 = 17.2"

 

It will change. I know it will.

The other side of that pendulum swing is in progress right now as the tropics dump stored heat to the arctic. A 929 low in AK is a clue here, along with most tropical activity since 1755.

Add low solar, volcanic activity, etc, and you get the idea.

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The roads in my neighborhood are still pretty bad. I think they plowed just the snow on the top and it left an icy layer behind. I guess they're just waiting on the warm up now lol. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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From PP
Friday, January 01, 2021 8:14:38 AM
European weekly update starting showing the impacts of the major blocking and polar vortex weakening
 

From the Anchorage weather service yesterday:

A new Alaska land-based low pressure record has been set! Shemya, Alaska, dropped to 924.8mb at 2159Z (1259 AKST) today. The previous accepted record was from a ship in Dutch Harbor at 925mb in 1977. Pressure is now slowly rising at Shemya.

TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST: European weeklies that updated Thursday night showing below-normal temperatures from the central Plains to the Southeast. This will be mainly impacted by the frequency of storms in the region. There will probably not be a lot of Arctic air available due to the warm pattern in Canada leading up to this period, but we feel that many places will still average 3-5 degrees Fahrenheit below normal for the period. There can be more ice and snow as well, perhaps even in the Southeast (lower to moderate confidence).

European weeklies week two 7-day departures ending Jan. 17:590x442_01010132_eurowkend17th.jpgEuropean weeklies week three 7-day departures ending Jan. 24590x442_01010132_euro7day24th.jpg

A sudden stratospheric warming event (rush of warming in the stratosphere) has begun and will peak during the first week of January. This will weaken the polar vortex sending cold to the midlatitudes. The question still remains as to what side of the globe will have the biggest surge of cold. We expect the U.S. to get some arctic surges, but the moderate La Nina, bad positioning of the MJO and persistent milder marine air flooding the northern tier of the nation can work against arctic takeover in week three and early week four period. The coldest air for the U.S may hold off until the very end of January and start of February.

Lets break it down by looking at the at upper heights from the European weeklies last night.

The strong block in central and eastern Canada and a strong jet across the Northwest and western Canada through mid-January will be the dominant features. The southern chill will be mainly impacted by the higher-than-normal frequency of storms producing below-normal temperatures. But what about the influence of the polar vortex disruption and arctic air intrusions for the U.S.? Referring to yesterday's post, to get a strong arctic push, we need to see a change in the northern Pacific from an upper-low over an upper-high setup to a full upper-high pushing north into Alaska. The European weeklies that updated Thursday night are showing some signs of this occurrence, but later in the month.

European weeklies 7-day average upper level heights ending Jan. 17590x442_01010201_euroweekhgtwk2.jpgEuropean weeklies 7-day average upper level heights ending Jan. 24590x442_01010201_eurowk3hgt.jpgEuropean weeklies 7-day average upper-level heights ending Jan. 31: Here there is a connection to northeast Asia over the pole and through western Canada and into the U.S. This is a good setup for arctic air invasion, last few days of January into the start of February. 590x442_01010202_eurowk4hgt.jpgThe MJO is forecast to pass through phase 3 and 4 during the middle of January. These are mild phases for the East. This will fight against Arctic air reaching U.S., especially the East. If the MJO is able to swing to phases 7 and 8 later in the month, then we would have more support for major Arctic air reaching the U.S. 590x590_01011034_mjo.jpgPHASE Chart: This shows that phase 3 and 4 are milder phases across the North and East during this period. 590x434_12300127_phase.jpg

So,

- Expect high frequency and big systems to move into the Northwest and Northern California next two weeks.

- Temperatures above normal across the northern Plains and Midwest through mid-month, turning colder late month

- Active southern storm track due to strong blocking in the eastern Canada through week three of January at least. Potential big storm east between the 11th and 12th.

- Arctic air from polar vortex weakening heads first to Europe and eastern Asia mid January but can reach the U.S. late January and early February, leaning toward northern Rockies Plains to the South and interior Southeast. An east coast storm may pull the cold east. MJO supports late surge rather than mid month surge.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Big potential w the Jan 3rd-4th snow system coming this weekend for SMI. This can be an overachiever w several inches possible and could be within the "Warning" criteria in spots.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Temp currently at 32F w freezing drizzle. More snow developing tanite w some light accumulations possible.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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13 hours ago, Tom said:

The latest CanSIPS seasonal came out today and wouldn't ya know it...this run shows the massive -NAO blocking pattern all across eastern Canada.  Prob the biggest miss I've seen and no model saw it coming.  I'll be honest, heading into the winter season, when I saw the Super ensemble (Euro/Ukmet) showing absolutely ZERO high lat blocking, I was getting worried.  Once I saw the Strat warming in the longer range models in late Nov/early Dec, my worries began to subside.  Now, here we are, a nowcast moment, we see the grace of Ol' Man Winter returning.

 

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It was good to see this part of the pattern show up on todays 12z Euro Control.  The artic is coming!

Slide08.jpg

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