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January 2021 Observations and Discussion


Grizzcoat

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20 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

I don't get some of the complaints in this thread. For the last several years we've had a January thaw, where it rains and there's absolutely zero snow fall and it's way too warm. nsm_depth_2021010505_National.jpg

I don't want to be rude, I know a few people here are looking out at brown ground, but this time period has been really, really bad this time of year for the last few years, and look at the snowcover. The snowmobile trails actually are open here, they opened in Dec, something that hasn't happened in a very, very long time.

Yeah, it looks warm for a week or so, but it's constantly been warm the first week or two of January for a few years. I'm looking at the forecast and I see cloudy with low 30s for highs. It means the snow cover is going to stay around and the ski hill will be in good shape. After the last few years, I'm very happy with just that. I'd love storm after storm, but I get to look outside and see snow finally.

I usually expect the first week or so of Jan to be a complete bust, and if we're just going to get low 30s and dry, with maybe a little snow, that's a huge win in my book. I just want it to stay below freezing and to get some snow. In fact if winter was constant 20s and snow showers every few days that would be absolutely amazing.

I appreciate this post. It's nice to see someone acknowledge that despite it's warmth, this pattern has delivered much better in the snow dept than you'd expect. To listen to some on here you'd think they were looking out at snow-less ground when in reality they've just had multiple plow-able snowfalls. This is far far better than last January here when there was only one single meaningful snow the entire month! (17-18th) and even that switched to rain before ending. I'm not too happy to have been fringed again with these storms, and my grass is still more green than brown. So far, this has felt more like 11-12 but most of the Mitt is looking out on ample if not historic snow cover. As for what "should happen" during winter, especially in this warm era, peeps are going to have roll with the extremes as they have become the new normal. Next month will be 3 yrs since I've had a legit Watch/Warn storm! Sounds horrible and it has been, but the prior 4 winters before that I had an incredible 14 Watch/Warn storms! Neither of these periods were what "should happen" but the first did, and now (imo) I'm still paying for it. Nature will balance and it's still doing that for mby. I don't like it, especially after being so spoiled in the 14-17 winters. I remember decades when SMI could expect only 1 (perhaps 2 in a good season) Watch/Warn systems. Then we went into feast mode but long-term averages scream that isn't sustainable. This obviously won't end up being a wall-to-wall winter. I'm just hoping to end the drought of meaningful events around here.  

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

Locally, its nice to see the LR HRRR picking up on LES bands firing up Thu...I would like to see this signal get better as we get closer in time...high rez NAM also seeing a cold N/NE flow off LM that allows for on/off LES activity...

 

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Yea, would be nice to see flakes flying since it is January and nothing else is showing up in the near-mid term. If you are into snow on the ground then I guess you are happy but that doesn't do much for me unless unless snow is also flying every 2-3 days. Winters have changed quite a bit the last several years so hoping we can save this winter with at least 1 blockbuster of a storm, one that sits and spins for days on end.

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1 hour ago, jcwxguy said:

Been getting heavy snow here in fremont for at least an hour so far 

Very nice, nothing but drizzle and light rain here in Omaha this morning. It's a good thing that I wasn't expecting much here once I woke up and saw that temperatures were starting off the day in the upper 30's.

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6 hours ago, bud2380 said:

I didn't see this posted, but I may have missed it.  Japan was recently hit with a tremendous ocean effect snow event.  Up to 7 feet fell in spots.  Below is an article.  In addition the all time highest pressure is believed to have been recorded in Mongolia at 32.31" or 1094mb!  And if that wasn't crazy enough just to the east of that incredibly strong high was an incredibly strong low pressure of 27.2" or 921mb.  Absolutely fascinating.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/04/japan-ocean-effect-snow/

 

image.png.c2266bce388d2d7f7a352001a1428cfa.png

Laws of physics are awesome. Equal and opposite reactions! That's crazy.

My thought about what dynamics it would take to get a 4 foot snowpack over the Ozarks back in 1917-18 would be something like a "Gulf effect" snow so it's so awesome to see that is really still possible! True science is still very neat.

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22 hours ago, whatitdo said:

I remember reading about that SSW event while i was in the carolinas. How bad was it here when that was going on? Did y’all get good snow too or was it just cold? Interested in hearing some stories lol

The best thing about the PV visit was that it came on the heals of the best storm of the winter. The sub-zero temps caused me personal grief as my car stranded me at work. Incredible cold but I think 2014 had both deeper cold and much deeper snow. Both were a short-lived "swing thru" event, followed by immediate above freezing period. So I personally will pass on such in favor of just workable sub-freezing and a decent duration.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

The best thing about the PV visit was that it came on the heals of the best storm of the winter. The sub-zero temps caused me personal grief as my car stranded me at work. Incredible cold but I think 2014 had both deeper cold and much deeper snow. Both were a short-lived "swing thru" event, followed by immediate above freezing period. So I personally will pass on such in favor of just workable sub-freezing and a decent duration.

I like how it's looking post 15th or so. Looks like best chances of prolonged winter weather we've seen thus far. Fingers crossed

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 Stagnant pattern here for the next 6-7 days.  Very unusual for Michigan in January.  We rarely go 4 days without measurable precip in January.  We are looking at 7-8 days right now.     Rex block in full effect.  Nothing to do but watch the long range models and hope.  Euro much less bullish on cold than the GFS in the long range.  

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15 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

 Stagnant pattern here for the next 6-7 days.  Very unusual for Michigan in January.  We rarely go 4 days without measurable precip in January.  We are looking at 7-8 days right now.     Rex block in full effect.  Nothing to do but watch the long range models and hope.  Euro much less bullish on cold than the GFS in the long range.  

Little scary that this 15th might be getting pushed back a day or 2....all know how that can play out.

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44 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Give me that vs bitter cold and wind with just clippers moving through!

I'll welcome it. The next few days look pretty miserable. Cloudy, cold, very little snow left. Hopefully we can move back to a more favorable pattern by the 20th. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Not only is Euro totally boring for most reading - there is no Arctic Air or even a SIGN of Arctic Air anywhere in Central / Southern Canada. It's a TORCH.  sfct_anom.conus.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Seeing some chatter showing up out of Cohen and the national news media about the SSW underway. My basic understanding is that they are unsure if there will be a full propagation through the PV (split lobes) or a large-scale dislodge of the whole thing to our side. Guy has been burned on his projections as badly as I have the past 3-4 years so I understand the trepidation in making a full bore call on it, especially as parts of Canada look to brush high temp records before the dust settles on our side of the globe. Meanwhile, TX is going to get clobbered. 

Getting 2020'd in 2021 and it's only 8 days old. Good news is that I'm not really expecting to see the actual changes til post 20th even if I want to rush them as fast as everyone else. I think the 6 week period closing January and running into week 2 of March may be more than I/we want to make up for it.

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Des Moines NWS is saying its gonna get cold:

Monday through Thursday...more high pressure and warmer temperatures
anticipated early in the week. Big changes forecast by Wednesday
into Thursday with a pair of Arctic cold fronts to blast across the
region. The first front looks to push through Wednesday evening with
the secondary and stronger front likely during the day Thursday.
Strong CAA with winds atop the mixed layer around 45 knots Thursday
as well as some potential for light snow. GFS has 850mb temperatures
down to -7C to -11C and even colder by Friday. ECMWF is not as cold
but is trending in that direction. All that being said, current
forecast high for Thursday is likely way too warm with the strong
push of CAA anticipated that day.
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1 minute ago, Stormhunter87 said:

Sorry for the downer the other day, and thank you for the kind words. Back to weather. I know we are seeing some warm weather but there are some storms showing up. Jim Flowers posted last night saying he is seeing three but ideally would probably get 2 of the 3.

Sorry for your loss. We had to put down our dog Tuesday evening. Its never easy.

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I'm getting a nice heavy snow shower right now off the lake...if ONLY we had temps about 10 degrees colder...man, how many times have I said that before???  Perfect set up for a long duration LES event on this side of the lake.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

I'm getting a nice heavy snow shower right now off the lake...if ONLY we had temps about 10 degrees colder...man, how many times have I said that before???  Perfect set up for a long duration LES event on this side of the lake.

On the east side of the lake here in Michigan it is a nice sunny day. With clear skies last night the low here at my house fell to 19. Officially the low was 20. Most winters that would not even be worth mentioning but so far this winter but this winter season here on January 8th and it only has officially gotten  below 20 four times. And for the season Grand Rapids has only had 7.4" of snow fall. 

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

On the east side of the lake here in Michigan it is a nice sunny day. With clear skies last night the low here at my house fell to 19. Officially the low was 20. Most winters that would not even be worth mentioning but so far this winter but this winter season here on January 8th and it only has officially gotten  below 20 four times. And for the season Grand Rapids has only had 7.4" of snow fall. 

do you have the lowest total snowfall in a winter season on record for the GR area? where would you find this at

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