January 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Tom 15708]

12z Euro still showing a strong wave...looks to be a bit stronger this run thru HR 102...gotta take off and run some errands but it looks like we may have a system to monitor...Happy Sunday!

[Tom 15708]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Euro is getting much stronger with the Thursday wave.

Isn't it nice for once to see last minute trends like these???  Come on baby....let's start off this pattern change right!

[Hawkeye 3894]

The GFS has a strong low up in Canada.  The Euro has nothing up there.

[Niko 6867]

On 1/9/2021 at 10:55 AM, Stacsh said:

No big storms anytime soon.  Looks to get colder after next thursday with a couple clippers maybe?  Boring times.  

Good news is that LES should be ramping up with NW flow and even weak clippers will do nicely here.   Sunny and mid 30's today will feel nice.  

Looks to get colder, but there is a chance for some bitter cold air as well. Have to wait and see how all this will transpire in the coming days. Thankfully, it does look more active down the road.

[Niko 6867]

Lows dipped down into the mid teens last nite. Holding in 20s so far today under cloudy skies. Dry weather continues until next Thursday.

[Niko 6867]

@OKwx2k4

The south is being inundated w watches and warnings, along w cold temps. Hope you were included in one of those headlines. Even FL is having a cold snap!

[bud2380 3099]

Euro 

[OmahaSnowFan 964]

Epic winter indeed

[tStacsh 24]

Euro is such an outlier.  I think it can be thrown out for the time being.   It’s not even close to any other model.  

[bud2380 3099]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Euro is such an outlier.  I think it can be thrown out for the time being.   It’s not even close to any other model.  

It’s actually not terribly far off from the UK or Canadian. The GFS is the one that is more of an outlier. No models are in great agreement yet though. 

[jaster220 8076]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

12z Euro still showing a strong wave...looks to be a bit stronger this run thru HR 102...gotta take off and run some errands but it looks like we may have a system to monitor...Happy Sunday!

2 runs?

This reflects my thinking:

But, this far out will not let deterministic solutions
pull too much weight for the forecast until ensembles start to show
more support for it.

[jaster220 8076]

3 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Euro 

Fringed with 1/2" here? Book it! LOL @ pattern changes.

[james1976 3705]

Not much on 18z GFS

[Niko 6867]

Snowing now in parts of LA

[FAR_Weather 4954]

28 minutes ago, Niko said:

Snowing now in parts of LA

Snow is actually no stranger to Northern Louisiana.

However, it is ridiculous that Houston is getting snow while I'm right at the freezing mark.

Screwwwwww this split flow pattern.

[Niko 6867]

23 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Snow is actually no stranger to Northern Louisiana.

However, it is ridiculous that Houston is getting snow while I'm right at the freezing mark.

Screwwwwww this split flow pattern.

Its pathetic!

We are half way through this Winter (or nearly there) and nothing to show for.

[james1976 3705]

CMC with widespread 1-3 for thu-fri. GFS just some backside snow showers. Windy with colder temps are a good bet regardless. 

[Grizzcoat 3022]

Euro caving to the GFS this run....

[Hawkeye 3894]

Models are meeting in the middle.  The low isn't up in Canada and it's not in Iowa, but in between.  It's a pretty intense upper low they are all showing.

[Grizzcoat 3022]

almost looks like system gets cut off from the upper level flow. Most would benefit.

[Grizzcoat 3022]

00Z Euro. Kuchera

[FAR_Weather 4954]

9 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

00Z Euro. Kuchera

That would be a dream come true, especially on my day off.

[FAR_Weather 4954]

GFS is also way North, albeit less juiced. 

GDPS takes the low through Central Manitoba.

[FAR_Weather 4954]

Meanwhile, Waco, TX got 6" today.

[OKwx2k4 3928]

1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

Meanwhile, Waco, TX got 6" today.

They stole my snow. Those mother.....lol. jk.

[OKwx2k4 3928]

I'm not going to lie, this pattern change is wearing down my patience. Getting tired of waiting, but I'm still holding. Pacific has been stealing the show for a few weeks now. I still believe the BSR is applicable, but then there's that much going on up there, models will struggle.

Not sure how our ongoing SSW ranks on all time list, but it's a really extreme one. Looking longer range the ensembles do show the cold filling in to Canada, so a trend has started. That's positive to see.

[Tom 15708]

Fired up a storm thread for the 14th-16th storm threat...

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/6761-jan-14th-16th-upper-mwgls-storm-system/

[Bruce Stern 4]

BREAKING NEWS: It finally snowed ... in southeast Texas and Louisiana LOL! So wishcasting for a pattern change weeks ago was somewhat correct — just a bit outside on the region though

Already Jan. 10. Winter is going FAST. Time to start thinking spring! Baseball and boating is right around the corner and I, for one, couldn’t be more excited. Maybe I can start doing some wishcasting for warm weather in March — there has to be a model showing it somewhere, right? I am calling it now: signs pointing to an EPIC repeat of March 2012. 80-degree temps, sunshine and NO SNOW all throughout the month. 

Think spring, boys. It’s the only shot you winter nuts have at keeping your sanity at this point

 

 

[St Paul Storm 3963]

everyone hit their ignore buttons....

[westMJim 1746]

Friday marks the halfway point of meteorological winter. Now I am sure we will get snow in the 2^nd half of meteorological winter and it could snow well into March and even April. But that said the 1^st half of this winter has been one for the record books for how mild it has been and the lack of snow fall. The one issue is with the lakes still wind open and now midwinter one has to be concerned for any cold and how much lake effect that could bring. At this time it is 29 here with cloudy skies. I had to go to the south side of town yesterday and boy there is a lot less snow on the ground on the south side then here where I live.

 

[FAR_Weather 4954]

1 hour ago, St Paul Storm said:

everyone hit their ignore buttons....

What is this, his 5th account? Lmao

[snowstorm83 1282]

Some people just get way too caught up in this. It might snow, it might not. It it is what it is. Can't control the weather. But March 2012 was so outrageous I'd be more comfortable forecasting an epic winter than that lol. 

[Grizzcoat 3022]

March 2012 is like Feb 1936- ( July of 12' was no WHERE near 36')  just in reverse. And no place in Upper Midwest has seen a switch from Feb 1936 to July 1936-- but no one either knows about it- or does- and doesn't admit it. That's when the climate was a changing folks.

[Hawkeye 3894]

2 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Some people just get way too caught up in this. It might snow, it might not. It it is what it is. Can't control the weather. 

I enjoy reading the long-range forecasting discussion.  I certainly hope for exciting weather, as others do.  However, as you get older and the years really start to fly by, you will increasingly learn to accept that, ultimately, you'll get what you get.  While I've received more snow this winter than many, at this point in my life we could have a totally snowless winter and it just wouldn't bother me much.

[Sparky 1517]

3 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Some people just get way too caught up in this. It might snow, it might not. It it is what it is. Can't control the weather. But March 2012 was so outrageous I'd be more comfortable forecasting an epic winter than that lol. 

I have fond memories of that month, but then it got cold again and froze some things and the summer was way to hot and dry! Better not to have it that warm in March!

[Grizzcoat 3022]

3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

March 2012 is like Feb 1936- ( July of 12' was no WHERE near 36')  just in reverse. And no place in Upper Midwest has seen a switch from Feb 1936 to July 1936-- but no one either knows about it- or does- and doesn't admit it. That's when the climate was a changing folks.

Just off the tip of my head without looking- but FEB 36' in DSM avg 8.6F (record coldest) - I do believe some places in ND Avg near -10F for the month YES check it out it you dont believe) only to see July of 1936 have an avg high of 99.4F in DSM- with 14 days in a row 100+ max temps. Lucky now to get ONE. (Water vapor anyone?_ Jokers now blame everything on climate change. - when it's most likely OCeans ( true heat)  in the balance. )-- and if you think humans control ocean temps, your just as sick as you think I'am-- only that 99.8% of the heat capacity of world is controlled by H20 vapor, the oceans have been warming- and effecting land mass. Bio Fuels- elec cars, whatever measures, (though maybe good for the earth) are going to effect these overall temps. They will not. Sadly- it's a solution? that's trying to be showed with facts the other way. Rant over.

[weatherfan2012 249]

15 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I'm not going to lie, this pattern change is wearing down my patience. Getting tired of waiting, but I'm still holding. Pacific has been stealing the show for a few weeks now. I still believe the BSR is applicable, but then there's that much going on up there, models will struggle.

Not sure how our ongoing SSW ranks on all time list, but it's a really extreme one. Looking longer range the ensembles do show the cold filling in to Canada, so a trend has started. That's positive to see.

I'm Riding the Larry Cosgrove train he has been pretty accurate this far and has always supportive the mid January throught march pattern producing.In fact he is bullish on what he sees for February.

[Grizzcoat 3022]

i know this may ring off deaf ears for those on climate change and all--- and I agree stats can be made to make "stats" what you think-- but here is a climate change stat with over 150 years of data that happened in the same year--- ND MAX and MIN happened in the same year-  my goodness the liberals then  like now- would have gone ape shi!-  

North Dakota

122 °F / 50 °C

July 6, 1936

Steele

−60 °F / −51 °C

February 15, 1936

Parshall

181 °F

 

[OmahaSnowFan 964]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

i know this may ring off deaf ears for those on climate change and all--- and I agree stats can be made to make "stats" what you think-- but here is a climate change stat with over 150 years of data that happened in the same year--- ND MAX and MIN happened in the same year-  my goodness the liberals then  like now- would have gone ape shi!-  

North Dakota

122 °F / 50 °C

July 6, 1936

Steele

−60 °F / −51 °C

February 15, 1936

Parshall

181 °F

 

Thanks for proving once again this is a political topic.

[Niko 6867]

SEMI is under a cloud cover until further notice. The extended shows cloudy skies w some precip by the weekend, (rain/snow) w colder air, but not bitter cold, "Yet."

Note: MLK Day looks to be stormy for the EC, as a potential Miller A looks possible for them.

Btw: No accumulating snow in sight for SEMI. Maybe some snowshowers by the weekend, as most of the precip will be well north of MI, but, nevertheless, snowshowers for Sat-Sun n Mon, but nothing of significance. Crazy, weird Winter.

@jaster220 Your headline reads WWA for ICE! UGHHHH...stay safe there.

@OKwx2k4 Plenty of action down south....hopefully you are using/have used your shovel/blower.

@Sparky Had a question for ya about gardening, but I cannot seem to remember what it was. I will let you know. Son of a .....

Temp attm of 27F under cloudy skies.

 

 

[Sparky 1517]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

SEMI is under a cloud cover until further notice. The extended shows cloudy skies w some precip by the weekend, (rain/snow) w colder air, but not bitter cold, "Yet."

Note: MLK Day looks to be stormy for the EC, as a potential Miller A looks possible for them.

Btw: No accumulating snow in sight for SEMI. Maybe some snowshowers by the weekend, as most of the precip will be well north of MI, but, nevertheless, snowshowers for Sat-Sun n Mon, but nothing of significance. Crazy, weird Winter.

@jaster220 Your headline reads WWA for ICE! UGHHHH...stay safe there bud.

@OKwx2k4 Plenty of action down south....hopefully you are using/have used your shovel/blower.

@Sparky Had a question for ya about gardening, but I cannot seem to remember what it was. I will let you know. Son of a .....

Temp attm of 27F under cloudy skies.

 

 

I’m not a master gardener! Ha

[tStacsh 24]

5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

i know this may ring off deaf ears for those on climate change and all--- and I agree stats can be made to make "stats" what you think-- but here is a climate change stat with over 150 years of data that happened in the same year--- ND MAX and MIN happened in the same year-  my goodness the liberals then  like now- would have gone ape shi!-  

North Dakota

122 °F / 50 °C

July 6, 1936

Steele

−60 °F / −51 °C

February 15, 1936

Parshall

181 °F

 

You would think you would know what the difference between climate and weather is. Sad you are a victim of political propaganda aimed at your emotions.    But it’s going around these days.  

[tStacsh 24]

On 1/10/2021 at 1:22 PM, Tom said:

Isn't it nice for once to see last minute trends like these???  Come on baby....let's start off this pattern change right!

Ugh. Wishful thinking.  More of the same as predicted.  

[Grizzcoat 3022]

43 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

You would think you would know what the difference between climate and weather is. Sad you are a victim of political propaganda aimed at your emotions.    But it’s going around these days.  

Are you saying today's climate in the Upper Midwest is more extreme than the 1930's? A whole decade of weather??

[jaster220 8076]

@Hawkeye Isn't there a thread for that system??

[jaster220 8076]

3 hours ago, Niko said:

SEMI is under a cloud cover until further notice. The extended shows cloudy skies w some precip by the weekend, (rain/snow) w colder air, but not bitter cold, "Yet."

Note: MLK Day looks to be stormy for the EC, as a potential Miller A looks possible for them.

Btw: No accumulating snow in sight for SEMI. Maybe some snowshowers by the weekend, as most of the precip will be well north of MI, but, nevertheless, snowshowers for Sat-Sun n Mon, but nothing of significance. Crazy, weird Winter.

@jaster220 Your headline reads WWA for ICE! UGHHHH...stay safe there.

@OKwx2k4 Plenty of action down south....hopefully you are using/have used your shovel/blower.

@Sparky Had a question for ya about gardening, but I cannot seem to remember what it was. I will let you know. Son of a .....

Temp attm of 27F under cloudy skies.

 

 

LOL. Safe from what, MDOT trucks running around on dry pavement? Desperate winters demand desperate headlines. My grid calls for 20% chance of Freezing Drizzle. say WAT??

[Grizzcoat 3022]

That's some unreal mild air -- "lows" for next WED? Where is the Arctic Air everyone is talking about?

[Tom 15708]

4 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Ugh. Wishful thinking.  More of the same as predicted.  

Not really, the pattern is turning around and maybe your "reverse psychology" will pay dividends in the end... ....so far, my calls for storm dates have all transpired to date, except for the details of where the past two systems ended up tracking, which unexpectedly tracked way to far south than I'd imagine.  With regards to the cold and teleconnections, they are all trending in our favor or flavor, whichever you prefer...

While on the topic of storms and the potential for this pattern to really fire up post 15th, over the past several days the models flipped towards a deeper -EPO.  This teleconnection along with the -PNA had me worried (and still does) as it could ruin our snow potential for those of us farther E across the Sub.  Needless to say, I'm a bit more enthusiastic with the pattern to close out the month.

 

With that being said, last night's Euro Weeklies have reversed course for the latter part of the month and is showing an extended and rather strong signal for a west-based Greenland Block.  This 500mb pattern is ideal for west/east tracking systems across the board and is looking more or less like a traditional La Nina type of pattern.  Big potential for plenty of winter storms to track this month and finish strong.

 

00z GEFS for Week 2 looking really nice...the "Nanook From the North" is coming to North America...storms will ride along the southern periphery of the extreme cold that is lurking and seeding farther South in due time. Those who don't believe the pattern change is coming are in denial.

 

[Tom 15708]

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

That's some unreal mild air -- "lows" for next WED? Where is the Arctic Air everyone is talking about?

I wouldn't worry about what a Day 9 Euro temp map is showing bc if it can be easily explained looking at the 500mb pattern.  How often have we seen the Euro (and other models) show a cut-off piece of energy dive into the 4 corners or N Mexico in the extended, then begin to correct?  The immense blocking being advertised is eye candy for one, two, we have not seen this type of blocking in years.  Expect, the unexpected, like we are seeing with the storm system we are tracking.  It's nice to see positive trends inside 5 days wrrt to tracking storm systems.

 

 

 

[Grizzcoat 3022]

Not sure I buy into the LRC some of you talk about , but here is the pattern lately in C.IA that seems to be repeating itself every 16-18 days. Dec 12th- 6.6" of snow. Dec 29th- 9.6". And now the system for this Friday 1/15-- exactly 17 days after Dec 29th.  I'am calling Feb 1st of 4-6" of snow.