bud2380 Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Models have been consistent in showing a very strong storm for Tuesday/Wednesday next week for several days now. Models have been fairly consistent, but have of course wobbled. The biggest questions/concerns at this point are of course storm track and the extent of warm air lifting into the storm. There appears to be cold air at the surface to work with at the beginning of the storm, but with warm air moving in, all p-types are on the table with this one. Here is the GFS model for reference. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Is a 200 mile shift North too much to ask for?? 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 12z ICON has been suggesting a 2 piece scenario the last couple runs and when I looked back at the LRC pattern, it had a similar scenario. Not saying its right this time as the energy could very well eject out in one piece given the teleconnections. I'm not buying into this option until I see all the other models show this scenario. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 ICON shifting north and much warmer. Lots of rain this run with a relatively small area of heavy snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z ICON has been suggesting a 2 piece scenario the last couple runs and when I looked back at the LRC pattern, it had a similar scenario. Not saying its right this time as the energy could very well eject out in one piece given the teleconnections. I'm not buying into this option until I see all the other models show this scenario. It's interesting, It would be ok if it was stronger and colder. I may end up rooting for a north shift lol. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Clinton said: It's interesting, It would be ok if it was stronger and colder. I may end up rooting for a north shift lol. TBH, at this range, the ensemble mean is the way to go...I'm not to thrilled with this storm at all....just gotta feeling its going to track right over me... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 8 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z ICON has been suggesting a 2 piece scenario the last couple runs and when I looked back at the LRC pattern, it had a similar scenario. Not saying its right this time as the energy could very well eject out in one piece given the teleconnections. I'm not buying into this option until I see all the other models show this scenario. I think this solution does line up well with the LRC and wouldn't surprise me a bit if it verified. We'll see... 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Gfs will be further north and warmer than 6z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 I think the GFS is going to be warmer and further NW than the 00z or 06z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 way further north, 850 line gets into southern MN this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 For much of eastern Iowa, we get a nice sleet storm, followed by a dry slot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Surface low tracks into SC Minnesota. Barf. Why would I ever dream a surface low would track south of Iowa. LOL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 51 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Is a 200 mile shift North too much to ask for?? It's on it's way. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Surface low is about 200 miles further north this run. From near CR on 6z run to near MSP on 12z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Minnesota, get ready. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Close to thermal issues here on that run. Gotta play with fire to get a big dog though. I’d take that risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 It's getting more likely for me to see strong/severe T-storms rather than any significant snowfall. Pretty crazy... 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Looking at the snow cover map you'd think it was still November, so a November low track can't really surprise us. Maybe next month for most of us. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 I appreciate the relative consistency of the GFS. But.....it’s the GFS out to 130 hours. It’s like the NAM at hour 84. Don’t believe it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Welp... Go Canada?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Go Canadian! 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 I'm going to put all of my faith in the Canadian until it crashes and burns. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 If the EURO shows what the GFS does today I'll be concerned. Until then, all my faith is in the king EURO! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 UKIE seems like a happy medium between the Canadian and GFS. The southern flank of this, would be looking at substantial icing on this run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 I mean the derecho took out 50% of our tree canopy. Might as well have a devastating ice storm ruin the rest of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 The UKIE is close enough though that it gives some hope of a small nudge south. I'm not sure what can help drive this further south. Seems like the pieces aren't there for suppression. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 If there is blocking shouldn't it track more south? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 12z GEFS have gone NW...IA low magnet in I’ll effect...bummer...the glacier will build to the NW. @Madtownand those who have sleds should benefit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 While we're on the topic of parallel models, the latest version of the GFS (v16) looks awfully close to the Canadian. This is today's 12z run. Snow graphics aren't available so total precipitation is the best I've got... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 This just reeks of a Dakotas/MN special. Maybe some front end snow/ice for us then rain. On an anecdotal note, can you really expect a strong-ish surface low with a ton of moisture to not track through Iowa in some capacity? Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 12z GFS Mean 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 From FGF: Confidence is growing in a potential Colorado low-type system to move into the Midwest around mid week. The majority of ensemble guidance from CMCE, ENS, and GEFS deepens a southern stream upper trough out of the southwestern CONUS into the central CONUS. Exact track and strength of this system is still unknown as spread is large (greater than 60%) with its evolution within ensembles. There is a notably large QPF footprint both in spatially and magnitude already being depicted, which can be analogous to impact footprint. While two thirds of all ensemble members keep the bulk of precip south and east of the area, there is around a third of total members that bring the northern precip shield into the area around Wed/Thu timeframe. Each ensemble system contributes an equal share to this third of total solutions, so there isn`t one particular model that is competing against the others. With this analysis in mind, this midweek system cannot be completely discounted in possibly affecting the eastern North Dakota and northwest/west-central Minnesota area. So while the probability of impacts from this potential mid week system is low, it should continue to be monitored; especially considering the potential for this system to bring notable impacts under its track. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Euro gonna cut through Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 We don't even get the front-end thump anymore because the flow is straight out of the south and the surge of moisture goes up through the plains. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Omaha to MSP special. Nothing interesting in eastern Iowa. Mostly dry slotted with some snow, ice and rain. Not looking good here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 In the end- calling my shot now, Brookings,SD to DLH special. North shore of MN gets 1-2' with 6-12" 50-75 miles either side of a line from near Brookings to Duluth. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Well good thing I was in the TC for this last storm I guess. I'll be in Iowa next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 I'm guessing the northern solutions will hold until the energy moves on shore Sunday evening or so...but even that may not change anything. If this misses I'll being moving into the new year still looking for my first full inch of snow (0.6" so far). Is it too early to start talking about the winter of 11-12??? (only 3.1" here that winter) 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Definitely biased but wonder if this another head-fake that models do around this forecast timeframe, where they get a solution ~10 days out, lose it 5-8 days out and get it back to some extent when it happens. At the same time the pattern seems to favor a sharp cutter like what today's models are showing ... only real certainty is that there'll be a lot of model-watching in the next few days! Merry Christmas Eve to those who celebrate, also! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 humm CMC Mean 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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