Clinton Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 12z Euro Mean 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 12z EPS seemed to stop the bleeding ... also is there a way I can throw some money at member #02 to help it verify?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 How did the Euro op snowfall look? Mean looks pretty good for me yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, james1976 said: How did the Euro op snowfall look? Mean looks pretty good for me yet. Very similar.....maybe a little more north? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Thank you @gabel23. I can't complain with that run but man, that north bleed needs to stop for central and eastern Iowa members. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Prolly too early to say but I'd imagine 10 or maybe 15:1 would be a good bet with no artic air in place. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, james1976 said: Thank you @gabel23. I can't complain with that run but man, that north bleed needs to stop for central and eastern Iowa members. No kidding! I wish we could get a west East slider so everyone can get into the action! I’m sitting pretty good but lots of time for this to change. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 NWS Hastings afternoon disco: A potentially more impactful storm system then arrives for Tuesday. Deterministic model runs have been fairly consistent in showing a closed upper low with attendant surface low passing through Kansas and eastern Nebraska. Being 5-6 days out, there is inherently still quite a bit of uncertainty, but ensemble guidance indicates a relatively high likelihood of impactful snow Tuesday/Wednesday over the entire forecast area. In fact, the European ensemble average actually shows 6-8 inches of snow stretching across a large portions of the area. There are lots of details left to work out (storm track, precip types, etc), but this is definitely an impressive signal, and those with holiday travel plans should monitor upcoming forecasts very closely. Conditions should start to improve on Wednesday, although this could change if the aforementioned system slows down at all. Therefore, we will keep a slight chance for snow through Wednesday night. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 The north-northwest movement on this is very apparent to Lincoln. Bullseyes was right over falls city two days ago, now more like Columbus. Never good being in the bullseye this far out. I would assume this shift will continue and end up being a sw to NE Nebraska special. Just my opinion. Only 4-4.5 days out. Not feeling super confident. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 18z GFS would require ice storm warnings in Iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 GFS may have wobbled south 10 miles or so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Wow.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Yup its entire track through the Midwest was a tad SE each frame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 18z had some backside snowshowers across Eastern Iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Exactly 1 of 20 GEFS members show heavy snow in EC and SE Iowa. At this point I'd settle for the front end thump that was showing in earlier model runs, but even that has gone away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 This is still 5 days away basically. The models could tell me it's going to be 75 with light breezes or 200 inches of snow at this point and either solution could be true. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 19 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Exactly 1 of 20 GEFS members show heavy snow in EC and SE Iowa. At this point I'd settle for the front end thump that was showing in earlier model runs, but even that has gone away. storms like this simply dont pan out for us. There's a reason why I'm not following this one run to run. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 hour ago, GDR said: That was 12z run.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 I posted it to compare 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Anyone have the 18Z Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 I can only get to 90 hours on the off hour Euros. Storm isn’t in motion yet by 90 hours. Which tells you how far away this still is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Anyone have the 18Z Euro? Only goes out to 90 hours I think Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 23 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Only goes out to 90 hours I think For some reason I was thinking 144 hours but I guess that still is cutting it close Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: For some reason I was thinking 144 hours but I guess that still is cutting it close I was thinking the same thing but Wxbell is only going to 90 rn. Weird. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 The way these kind of storms go... I feel like there’s a much better chance this ends up in Canada than SE and E Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 39 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: For some reason I was thinking 144 hours but I guess that still is cutting it close Clinton can get it to 144 on the site he uses. But it only goes to 90 on weather models. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 GFS even further north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Anyone have the 18Z Euro? Just saw this it was in line with the 12z for the most part. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Canadian continues to be colder and further south. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: Looks like an improvement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Just for reference later, here is the 18z Euro Control 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Canadian still throwing us Iowans a bone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 The SLP on the Canadian goes from central KS to far SE MO. Compared to the GFS which takes it into SE MN. Only a solid 500 mile difference 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 UK just like the GFS. Canadian on an island all by itself. And I’m going to go down with it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, bud2380 said: The SLP on the Canadian goes from central KS to far SE MO. Compared to the GFS which takes it into SE MN. Only a solid 500 mile difference Will be interesting what the Euro has on the 0z run. Split the difference? By sometime late tomorrow, the NAM will also be in range to start seeing the storm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 CMC tonight lightly taps into some artic air and wraps it in. This model provides some hope for colder and further south trend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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