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December 29th - 30th Snowstorm


bud2380

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NWS Hastings afternoon disco:

A potentially more impactful storm system then arrives for Tuesday. Deterministic model runs have been fairly consistent in showing a closed upper low with attendant surface low passing through Kansas and eastern Nebraska. Being 5-6 days out, there is inherently still quite a bit of uncertainty, but ensemble guidance indicates a relatively high likelihood of impactful snow Tuesday/Wednesday over the entire forecast area. In fact, the European ensemble average actually shows 6-8 inches of snow stretching across a large portions of the area. There are lots of details left to work out (storm track, precip types, etc), but this is definitely an impressive signal, and those with holiday travel plans should monitor upcoming forecasts very closely. Conditions should start to improve on Wednesday, although this could change if the aforementioned system slows down at all. Therefore, we will keep a slight chance for snow through Wednesday night.

  • Snow 2
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The north-northwest movement on this is very apparent to Lincoln. Bullseyes was right over falls city two days ago, now more like Columbus. Never good being in the bullseye this far out. I would assume this shift will continue and end up being a sw to NE Nebraska special. Just my opinion. Only 4-4.5 days out. Not feeling super confident. 

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19 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Exactly 1 of 20 GEFS members show heavy snow in EC and SE Iowa.  At this point I'd settle for the front end thump that was showing in earlier model runs, but even that has gone away.  

storms like this simply dont pan out for us. There's a reason why I'm not following this one run to run.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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2 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

For some reason I was thinking 144 hours but I guess that still is cutting it close

I was thinking the same thing but Wxbell is only going to 90 rn. Weird. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The SLP on the Canadian goes from central KS to far SE MO. Compared to the GFS which takes it into SE MN. Only a solid 500 mile difference 

Will be interesting what the Euro has on the 0z run. Split the difference? By sometime late tomorrow, the NAM will also be in range to start seeing the storm. 

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