CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 50 minutes ago, bud2380 said: UK just like the GFS. Canadian on an island all by itself. And I’m going to go down with it The UK did shift its snow band a bit southeast this run. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 48 minutes ago, Clinton said: CMC tonight lightly taps into some artic air and wraps it in. This model provides some hope for colder and further south trend. Would relish the thought that it's seeing the blocking better. But just as likely it's in total blind squirrel mode. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Significant SE shift on the CMC Mean 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Clinton said: Significant SE shift on the CMC Mean There are quite a few turds in the ensembles, generally much drier than other models. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 12z parallel ECMWF for what it's worth 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Hawkeye said: There are quite a few turds in the ensembles, generally much drier than other models. Noticeable. Was gonna mention same. Guessing a weak(er) strung-out storm could get this further south if that does anything for anybody? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Would relish the thought that it's seeing the blocking better. But just as likely it's in total blind squirrel mode. That probably the case. But I have doubts that the GFS and Euro are seeing it at all. Not uncommon at this range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: There are quite a few turds in the ensembles, generally much drier than other models. I noticed that also. Not sure what to make of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Models are not handling the blocking well. I do not see it cutting through Southeast Nebraska, teleconnections will not be supportive of that. Split the difference between what the GFS and Canadian is showing I'd say. Models will have a better handle in a couple days 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, The Snowman said: 12z parallel ECMWF for what it's worth Caution wrt the King. When there's been shifts, he's the most stubborn model to follow the lead 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Canadian is really biased against Canada. 1 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Here's the GFS v16 (parallel GFS) so... yeah 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 minute ago, The Snowman said: Here's the GFS v16 (parallel GFS) so... yeah That's a big shift from previous run correct? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Clinton said: That's a big shift from previous run correct? I suppose so... kind of like it went south but also east but also angled more northerly, if that makes sense... we're essentially just throwing darts at different solutions it feels like! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Most recent Para-GFS on Pivotal seems to be 22/0z Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, The Snowman said: I suppose so... kind of like it went south but also east but also angled more northerly, if that makes sense... we're essentially just throwing darts at different solutions it feels like! And will be until the day of, as seen by MSP yesterday, and DTX today. Models aren't totally clueless, more like a drunk finding his way in a dark alley. My 2 cents 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 ECMWF takes a jog north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Euro follows the rest Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 The Euro is a bit to the northwest. Areas along and north of the platte river should do fine with this run. Man this is gonna be one heck of a battle. The one agreement with the models...the gulf will be wide open so we should see plenty of moisture in one form or the other. Gonna ride with the Euro until it proves me wrong. It's done really well for me so far this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Now that the Euro is going north of me I’m more worried. Guess it’s a good thing we’re still 4-5 days away 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 WPC's early call today. Hey, at least SMI has graduated from pure rainer status for the 1st time this "winter". 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 EPS mean with a nice nudge south 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 00z Euro...gearing up for a MSP special??? 00z GEFS have shifted much farther NW now...6" mean now creeping every so closer towards @FAR_Weather 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Something I have noticed off the EPS snow mean is that it has is showing signs of flattening the snow shield over the GL's region. The 6" snow mean doesn't cut up as much...subtle changes, could be a trend or not...I'm sure there will be more shifts in the coming days. For comparison, here was the 00z from yesterday vs tonight's... Yesterday... Tonight's run... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 3 hours ago, Tom said: 00z Euro...gearing up for a MSP special??? 00z GEFS have shifted much farther NW now...6" mean now creeping every so closer towards @FAR_Weather Even if this ends up shifting a bit, which it probably will, that’s a nice big swath to work with! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Great write up from DVN 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Latest gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 6z ICON is back to the front end thump for eastern Iowa. And thump she does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Kind of like where I sit. This comes ashore Sunday I believe? Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 6z Euro Control with a southern sag 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 12z ICON trying to get me excited. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 12z ICON develops a secondary low along the front. This fits the LRC, now I can hope it trends colder. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Move farther North! Farther! Farther! Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Merry Christmas!!! Just nice to see a big snow shield for a change! Hope it stays that way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 GFS is gonna be north of 6z most likely Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Gfs looks like a soaker for most of Iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 GFS still north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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