Money Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Nothing like a 8-10 inch thump followed by rain and mid 30’s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Love me a good Christmas time rain storm around here. Been the normal here for a few years now. Our true winter doesn’t start until January anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Is it too early to wave the white flag? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 My Brookings to DLH call might be to far SE. Aberdeen to Thunder Bay? Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Which one blinks first...GFS or the King? I like seeing a consistent MN smash job but still way too early. These are pure guesses until sampled. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 NWS is calling the GFS faster and further north solution “suspect”. So let’s see what the other models say. And again, we aren’t even within NAM range yet. So this is still quite a ways out to pinpoint any specifics. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 The last couple runs of the GFS have slowed, but it's still north. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 I was encouraged by last nights UK. The SLP going into Wisconsin seemed to be a kiss of death but it had the snow band further south anyways. Hopefully a trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Is this not showing a good hit for Iowa? What am i seeing wrong? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 GEM still way south and even brings snow into IL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 minute ago, james1976 said: Is this not showing a good hit for Iowa? What am i seeing wrong? pretty much most of that is sleet/freezing rain. Part of Iowa gets over .5-.75 fzr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 CMC showing a secondary low pressure riding up the front much like the ICON. If this were to verify and strengthen it would greatly impact accumulations from SW. MO up through eastern Iowa. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 GEM brings 10-20+ into IA/IL/WI. Snows for over 36-48 hours. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, james1976 said: Is this not showing a good hit for Iowa? What am i seeing wrong? Tropical Tidbits is horrible for snowfall maps bc of sleet/freezing rain issues. Here’s a better map Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 The Canadian would be awesome. I just don't buy it without support from other models. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 I got it. Thanks for the heads up. Hopefully the GFS is NOT up to something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 12z CMC 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Cmc actually stayed steady from 00Z. Love to believe, but the only good thing to come from Canuck Land is hockey and 80's music. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 CMC isn't perfect but it keeps me in the game, so there's that. 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 UK looks further south based on SLP track per meteocentre. But the low is also weaker. Only 1008mb in far SE Kansas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Canadian kuchera 3 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 UK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Parallel GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Looks like the trend has been a weakening overall, but on the Nebraska end especially. 12z GEFS for reference. Still a decent mean for the eastern half of the state. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 The GFSv16, UK, and Canadian are all very similar. The regular GFS is nowhere near. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Wow, some big changes. The difference with the UK is the northern stream energy. Other models dive the northern energy down behind the southern energy, which lifts the southern energy on a nw track. The new UK dives the northern energy ahead of the southern energy, so there is a farther southeast initial surge of moisture and there is no wrapped-up storm that follows. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Craig? 5 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Craig? Where did you find this? Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, james1976 said: Where did you find this? Lol I'm friends with one of the Mets at the North Platte office and he shared that. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Seeing the changes makes you remember that climatologically speaking, getting a 12”+ snowfall here in eastern Nebraska is pretty D**n hard. Last I saw, happens once or twice every decade I believe. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 NWS Omaha already has "Snow" for Tuesday & Tuesday night, one of just a few times I've seen that kind of confidence from the NWS this far out. Also kind of awkward considering the latest model runs, but of course they're the degreed & professional meteorologists here, not I! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 0z Parallel ECMWF, more or less the same as the operational Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Craig? Besides the snow amounts claim this far out, I’m not seeing winds at 60 mph either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 14 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Seeing the changes makes you remember that climatologically speaking, getting a 12”+ snowfall here in eastern Nebraska is pretty D**n hard. Last I saw, happens once or twice every decade I believe. That's the truth. Last time for LNK was March 1998. 10-12" range is much more common though and I would count double digits as big dogs. I loved the 2/23/19 storm, but if it was just a couple hours slower pulling out we would've been approaching a foot. Don't get me wrong though, I'll take a 6-10" storm all day every day. Edit: If you count 3 day totals then 12/24-26 2009 would make the cut with 12.8", but I'm not sure if that was continous snowfall or not. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 I am seeing some big changes that are starting to show up. UKIE and GEM are showing it. Potentially northern stream interacts w southern stream and gains a lot of energy, which could possibly favor Clinton's area, Chicago and points east. Perhaps models are not seeing the huge -NAO developing and thus creating model mayhem here. Expect more south trends as time goes. That is my best guess as for now. Could also be wrong! Fun times ahead. 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 ECMWF coming in south(!) 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 12z ECMWF snow map through Hour 120 2 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 bye i'm passing away now 4 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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