Hawkeye Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Of course, the snow falls overnight Tuesday night, which I hate. I want to be able to actually see it falling. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Is Kuchera reasonable with this system or too early to tell? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 3 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, james1976 said: Is Kuchera reasonable with this system or too early to tell? Temps are in the mid 20s in that 26-30" bullseye, so technically yes. But even the 10:1 is outrageous amounts for the region. Also can't forget how different the GFS is. For LNK, most of the precip is during the day Tuesday vs. evening/overnight on the Euro. GFS also has the temp shooting to 48 overnight while the Euro is in the 20s at the same time. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Loving the trends. I’d like to see the euro come even further south but at least I’m up to 8”. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Loving the trends. I’d like to see the euro come even further south but at least I’m up to 8”. Long live the king euro!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 EPS mean ticks south compared to the 0z. Totals through Hour 144. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Can we just lock that in? My God 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Looking at individual GEFS members for LNK, they range from 23" to 0"..... sooooo yeah. 1 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Looking at individual GEFS members for LNK, they range from 23" to 0"..... sooooo yeah. I don’t think I’m going to feel confident in the models until morning of. Just have this gut feeling that this isn’t our storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Looking at individual GEFS members for LNK, they range from 23" to 0"..... sooooo yeah. My gosh. That is insane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 12 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Looking at individual GEFS members for LNK, they range from 23" to 0"..... sooooo yeah. 0-30" it appears! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 FWIW, a look at the WPC's preferred model blend using runs through 06z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Korean model 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 GFS is clearly out to lunch on this one. Teleconnections support the EURO. Look for the GFS to cave in the next couple days 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 31 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Korean model 1 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 DMX current thoughts: Models have continued on insisting and very robust system for Tuesday and Wednesday next week. The system will arrive onshore in California on Monday before traversing the southern Rockies on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a second shortwave will drop southeast into the western trof helping to amplify the system and swing the southwest shortwave northeast into the central United States. The gulf will be open and available to contribute ample amounts of moisture to the system with impressive low level moisture transport ahead of the system. The consistency with the deterministic and ensemble model output has been impressive thus far in showing widespread impacts across Iowa since about this past Tuesday and the 12Z runs have not disappointed. All ensemble output continues to show a high probability of significant precipitation across the state starting on Tuesday and persisting into Wednesday night. GEFS remains the farther north, Canadian ensemble takes a farther south route with the Euro splitting the difference. Both the GEFS and Euro ensemble produce from 1"-1.5" of QPF for broad areas of the state at this time. The snow threat remains greatest across the northern half of the state with a mix or rain in the south. More details will be hammered out over the upcoming days as additional certainty is added with updated forecast cycles. Will also continue to hammer home the potential for significant weather into the middle of next week and impact to travel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 18z ICON 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Man, the gulf is just wide open. How long has it been since Iowa has had this much moisture transport into a winter storm? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 DVN AFD is a total waste of time. It sounds like they took one look at the GFS and based everything on that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, bud2380 said: DVN AFD is a total waste of time. It sounds like they took one look at the GFS and based everything on that. Must be Christmas Day. Very short afternoon disco from NWS Hastings says if Euro is correct more snow, if GFS correct less snow. And it night get windy. Mailed that forecast in today. Not exactly the in depth discussion I’m looking for. Maybe a high school kid is running the office today. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 18z GFS even further NW. Unbelievable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Best to discount the GFS until other models get on board. It's solution is not making sense 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 18z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Must be Christmas Day. Very short afternoon disco from NWS Hastings says if Euro is correct more snow, if GFS correct less snow. And it night get windy. Mailed that forecast in today. Not exactly the in depth discussion I’m looking for. Maybe a high school kid is running the office today. That was a pathetic discussion. Then even more laughable is their 4-6 inch call if the MAX happens. Since when was this storm showing as that weak and moisture deprived? Euro shows over a foot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said: Best to discount the GFS until other models get on board. It's solution is not making sense I believe it was the furthest north with this last storm too and it won out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Just now, james1976 said: I believe it was the furthest north with this last storm too and it won out. Completely different setup this time. Low is coming out of the southwest with blocking 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said: Completely different setup this time. Low is coming out of the southwest with blocking Yeah I understand that. I just have a bad feeling. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said: That was a pathetic discussion. Then even more laughable is their 4-6 inch call if the MAX happens. Since when was this storm showing as that weak and moisture deprived? Euro shows over a foot. I thought the same thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 18z parallel GFS is doing ... something 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, The Snowman said: 18z parallel GFS is doing ... something Trending towards the CMC is what it looks like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, The Snowman said: 18z parallel GFS is doing ... something God... I would go insane if this happened. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 18z GEFS builds totals on the back end of the snow swath relative to the 12z run, drops the swath of 6" totals a tick south as well 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 minute ago, The Snowman said: 18z GEFS builds totals on the back end of the snow swath relative to the 12z run, drops the swath of 6" totals a tick south as well Gah... Move the purple North a bit more for my sake. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 18z ICON, so long as I'm throwing models around, seems like it too raised totals in the Nebraska / Kansas area, maybe just a hair south as well but not significant 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Here's the parallel GFS snow map from Pivotal... pretty different than the one posted above from weathermodels.com. Pivotal's maps show a lot of sleet and rain over southern/central Iowa. It's quite different than the op GFS. The op has the northern wave trailing the southern. The parallel is opposite. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 18z Euro Control was about 50 miles further south with the surface low than previous run also about 6hrs slower. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 12 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z Euro Control was about 50 miles further south with the surface low than previous run also about 6hrs slower. Wow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 ICON north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: ICON north. Warmer and rainier, despite the continued trend toward a faster northern wave and slower southern. When I saw that I expected this run to be south, not north. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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