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December 29th - 30th Snowstorm


bud2380

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Of course, the snow falls overnight Tuesday night, which I hate.  I want to be able to actually see it falling.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Is Kuchera reasonable with this system or too early to tell?

Temps are in the mid 20s in that 26-30" bullseye, so technically yes. But even the 10:1 is outrageous amounts for the region. Also can't forget how different the GFS is. For LNK, most of the precip is during the day Tuesday vs. evening/overnight on the Euro. GFS also has the temp shooting to 48 overnight while the Euro is in the 20s at the same time. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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DMX current thoughts:

Models have continued on insisting and very robust system for
Tuesday and Wednesday next week.  The system will arrive onshore in
California on Monday before traversing the southern Rockies on
Tuesday. Meanwhile, a second shortwave will drop southeast into the
western trof helping to amplify the system and swing the southwest
shortwave northeast into the central United States.  The gulf will
be open and available to contribute ample amounts of moisture to the
system with impressive low level moisture transport ahead of the
system.  The consistency with the deterministic and ensemble model
output has been impressive thus far in showing widespread impacts
across Iowa since about this past Tuesday and the 12Z runs have not
disappointed. All ensemble output continues to show a high
probability of significant precipitation across the state starting on
Tuesday and persisting into Wednesday night. GEFS remains the
farther north, Canadian ensemble takes a farther south route with
the Euro splitting the difference.  Both the GEFS and Euro ensemble
produce from 1"-1.5" of QPF for broad areas of the state at this
time.  The snow threat remains greatest across the northern half of
the state with a mix or rain in the south.  More details will be
hammered out over the upcoming days as additional certainty is added
with updated forecast cycles.  Will also continue to hammer home the
potential for significant weather into the middle of next week and
impact to travel.
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10 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

DVN AFD is a total waste of time. It sounds like they took one look at the GFS and based everything on that. 

Must be Christmas Day. Very short afternoon disco from NWS Hastings says if Euro is correct more snow, if GFS correct less snow. And it night get windy. Mailed that forecast in today. Not exactly the in depth discussion I’m looking for. Maybe a high school kid is running the office today. 😀

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9 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Must be Christmas Day. Very short afternoon disco from NWS Hastings says if Euro is correct more snow, if GFS correct less snow. And it night get windy. Mailed that forecast in today. Not exactly the in depth discussion I’m looking for. Maybe a high school kid is running the office today. 😀

 

That was a pathetic discussion. Then even more laughable is their 4-6 inch call if the MAX happens. Since when was this storm showing as that weak and moisture deprived? Euro shows over a foot.

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1 minute ago, The Snowman said:

18z GEFS builds totals on the back end of the snow swath relative to the 12z run, drops the swath of 6" totals a tick south as well

18z gefs.png

Gah... Move the purple North a bit more for my sake.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Here's the parallel GFS snow map from Pivotal... pretty different than the one posted above from weathermodels.com.  Pivotal's maps show a lot of sleet and rain over southern/central Iowa.  It's quite different than the op GFS.  The op has the northern wave trailing the southern.  The parallel is opposite.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

ICON north. 

Warmer and rainier, despite the continued trend toward a faster northern wave and slower southern.  When I saw that I expected this run to be south, not north.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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