December 29th - 30th Snowstorm

[whatitdo]

10 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Canadian. More brewing with the second wave after this. This storm is crazy. Still no idea what to expect. 

I don't buy this for SW michigan at this time frame - feel it will be a rainer till the 2nd wave rolls in and makes things interesting

[CentralNebWeather]

With all this weather action, I saw the ends of the Raiders/Dolphins and Liberty/Coastal Carolina games. My gosh those were amazing. Can’t begin to describe them here. 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

With all this weather action, I saw the ends of the Raiders/Dolphins and Liberty/Coastal Carolina games. My gosh those were amazing. Can’t begin to describe them here. 

The Raiders being eliminated from the playoffs brings a smile to my face!

[CentralNebWeather]

CMC through 84 hours is very good to Nebraska with no rain or ice. 

 

[Clinton]

0z GFS Mean

[Minny_Weather]

I'm tempted to just say throw out GFS. That was wacky.

 

[Hawkeye]

UK is still well southeast of other models with the southern/second system.

[jaster220]

31 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z GFS Mean

That [M]ean covers a TON of real estate!

[bud2380]

I’d be very happy with this. 

[Hawkeye]

GDPS and UK are stubbornly holding to a farther south snow band from wave 1.

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

That [M]ean covers a TON of real estate!

The CMC mean is even bigger.  No clue who is going to get snow from this,

[Clinton]

0z CMC Mean

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro no different with wave #1.  Maybe a tick north.

[The Snowman]

First call 3"

[bud2380]

There’s still so many differences between the models. I wish the UK or Canadian would pan out. Euro is just a touch too far north with the warm air. 

[Hawkeye]

Major change on the Euro from last run to this one.  Last run has a sharp trough connecting the north and south energy.  The new run sweeps the northern energy through the region, more like other models.

12z

00z

[Hawkeye]

[Money]

Euro crushes Iowa this run with the second wave 

[Hawkeye]

I think odds are the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area won't get much from either wave, but here is the latest Euro.  Someone could get some real nice snow if the two waves can overlap.

[Grizzcoat]

regardless of where the heaviest bands set up, guidance is slowly shrinking that band and reducing totals overall. Which is to be expected. 4-8" in heaviest - with isolated 9"+. James looks to be in sweet spot. 

[Minny_Weather]

NAM continues to be the best solution for me.

[Tom]

What I'm noticing (and what has happened a couple times this season) and this will ultimately be the key for us farther east, is the separation of the N stream and S stream energy.  Based off of the latest guidance, it's now looking likely that we will be focusing in on the southern stream energy developing deep down near the gulf states and ride up into the OHV.  I believe we tracked a system as such way back in the Autumn months and were hoping to see a system like this during met Winter.  Well, here we are, it may be coming into fruition.

 

00z Euro...cuts a bit to far west for my liking but I'm liking the trends so far for a deep, moisture laden storm coming up from the deep south.  

 

@OKwx2k4, joining the party???

 

After looking into the 00z EPS, there is a noticeable shift SE with the 6" mean and overall snow shield across the Lower Lakes region....trend is our friend???  Also of note, it has certainly weakened the once broad based 6-12" snow mean across the Great Plains into Upper MW.

 

 

 

[dubuque473]

Appears I am in the sweet spot on a lot of these maps.

DVN going with 3-7” as of now.

[Tom]

Looking back in years past, I think the last time the MW/GL's tracked a large winter storm was back on Jan '99 if I'm not mistaken.  Iirc, that storm started off on NYE into New Year's Day and delivered quite the blizzard in the region.  I was a senior in H.S. back then and remember filling up my car with gas the day before the storm (the price of gas was .95/gal back then).  It would be awesome if this storm could come together and deliver something similar.

Meantime, 06z GEFS still showing a wound up S stream Lower Lakes cutter....

[OKwx2k4]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

Looking back in years past, I think the last time the MW/GL's tracked a large winter storm was back on Jan '99 if I'm not mistaken.  Iirc, that storm started off on NYE into New Year's Day and delivered quite the blizzard in the region.  I was a senior in H.S. back then and remember filling up my car with gas the day before the storm (the price of gas was .95/gal back then).  It would be awesome if this storm could come together and deliver something similar.

Meantime, 06z GEFS still showing a wound up S stream Lower Lakes cutter....

This is starting to look like that crazy type of storm that jaster, you and myself were all dreaming up a few years back. Holy smokes. 

This gets some of our other friends some badly needed snow also. I hope it works out for all of us.

[Tom]

14 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

This is starting to look like that crazy type of storm that jaster, you and myself were all dreaming up a few years back. Holy smokes. 

This gets some of our other friends some badly needed snow also. I hope it works out for all of us.

I'm still a bit nervous where I sit as there could still very well be a warm nose out ahead of this storm like we saw earlier on in the season.  The trends in the GEFS backing westward need to stop...I'd like to see more H.P. to the north rather than having it slide east before the storm cuts up this way.  It's like the "up tenth" time this season and in seasons past, we literally need all elements come together.  If its not one thing, it's another...so, hopefully this is the one that breaks the trend.

[OKwx2k4]

Just now, Tom said:

I'm still a bit nervous where I sit as there could still very well be a warm nose out ahead of this storm like we saw earlier on in the season.  The trends in the GEFS backing westward need to stop...I'd like to see more H.P. to the north rather than having it slide east before the storm cuts up this way.  It's like the "up tenth" time this season and in seasons past, we literally need all elements come together.  If its not one thing, it's another...so, hopefully this is the one that breaks the trend.

I'm going to throw a major caveat that cannot be ignored. Theres a growing swath of area anywhere from me to Maine that could get absolutely demolished in an ice storm.

If this becomes a jammed up, sheared out trough with long-term overrunning, we're going to have a major disaster on our hands. There's not a stacked column of cold air sitting here ready to go like the last time.

Things just got very exciting is what I'm saying.

[bud2380]

6z RDPS continues to be very favorable to Iowa city and Cedar Rapids 

[bud2380]

SREF plumes for Cedar Rapids range from 0-13” with a mean of 6”. 

[Wheezer]

8 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Yeah, those are very much more than subtle changes.

These are normal progressive changes we see with every event on models.  Always overdone at 7+ days, then days 6-5-4 , the trend shift and more reasonable qpf, day 3 mods come to a general agreement,  day 2 , make a forecast.  Same thing every storm.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

This is starting to look like that crazy type of storm that jaster, you and myself were all dreaming up a few years back. Holy smokes. 

This gets some of our other friends some badly needed snow also. I hope it works out for all of us.

0z Euro is perfect for me.  Best part is it snows Friday great way to kick off the weekend.

[Minny_Weather]

FGF still isn't favoring any particular model. Another short AFD for 2 days out.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I'm still a bit nervous where I sit as there could still very well be a warm nose out ahead of this storm like we saw earlier on in the season.  The trends in the GEFS backing westward need to stop...I'd like to see more H.P. to the north rather than having it slide east before the storm cuts up this way.  It's like the "up tenth" time this season and in seasons past, we literally need all elements come together.  If its not one thing, it's another...so, hopefully this is the one that breaks the trend.

I've noticed several of the models showing a lot of frz rain and sleet with this southern wave.  Kinda scary, the GFS V16 and the Euro, show heavy amounts of ice as well as snow.

[bud2380]

6z Euro. Not much change. I fear this will be correct and not the colder and snowier UK and Canadian. 

[Clinton]

6z Euro Control dropping a lot of ice and snow.  Has a significant west shift.

[bud2380]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro Control dropping a lot of ice and snow.  Has a significant west shift.

That’s insane. Might need a separate thread for that system soon if trends continue. So far models have the New Years storm as far west as central KS and as Far East as central IN 

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, the second storm is all over the place on models.  That 06z Euro control run is way west.

[Clinton]

Just now, bud2380 said:

That’s insane. Might need a separate thread for that system soon if trends continue. So far models have the New Years storm as far west as central KS and as Far East as central IN 

Its crazy.  I think we could just extend the date on this thread to Jan 2nd since the precip never completely stops.

[Clinton]

Here are the 6z long range models for the second storm.  The Euro Control is posted above.  Both the EC and the GFS V16 produce significant amounts of ice through central MO and E Iowa.

6z GFS V16

6z GFS

 

[Hawkeye]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Here are the 6z long range models for the second storm.  The Euro Control is posted above.

6z GFS V16

 

The west shift needs to stop.  This is two 06z models that are now too far west.