December 29th - 30th Snowstorm

[Stacsh]

HRRR keeps it all snow in SMI, that doesn't seem right.  

[CentralNebWeather]

06z RDPS

[bud2380]

The HRRR drops 6" in 2 hours in central Iowa.  While those are not very believable, it does show the potential for very heavy snow rates. 

[james1976]

DMX mentioned the higher totals of the HRRR. Too bad the globals don't jump back on that wagon. 

[Stacsh]

GFS seems to be warmer than every other model for SMI.   Local mets going with quick burst of snow to rain, but every model besides the GFS is showing 4-6 inches of snow and warming up at the very end to the mid-30's.  GFS has low 40's.  Interesting.  

[bud2380]

12z HRRR so far through 39 hours.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z NAM 

[bud2380]

This should make Hawkeye pretty happy.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z NAM 3km

[The Snowman]

Am I missing something that happened? These 12z runs suddenly seem pretty generous for eastern Nebraska, even if they are the usual over-amped suspects

[james1976]

I wonder if DMX will tweak their amounts due to the HRRR. 

[bud2380]

I wouldn't put much stock in the NAM, it's an outlier and the NWS has said so.  The HRRR always seems to do crazy stuff like this, I would decrease the totals you see on it significantly, but perhaps the placement is on track.  We'll just have to wait and see how it unfolds at this point.  

[East Dubzz]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

I wouldn't put much stock in the NAM, it's an outlier and the NWS has said so.  The HRRR always seems to do crazy stuff like this, I would decrease the totals you see on it significantly, but perhaps the placement is on track.  We'll just have to wait and see how it unfolds at this point.  

Nah.. 17” of snow?? LOCK IT IN.

[jcwxguy]

Hrrr lightning

[james1976]

Convective elements would be quite something but I haven't seen the NWS mention it.

[Minny_Weather]

2.5 WHOLE INCHES on NAM! #winning

[FV-Mike]

I like what the HRRR is showing. Anything to end the rut the Chicago area and points east. 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z RDPS

[CentralNebWeather]

12z ICON 

[james1976]

9 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z RDPS

I hope this model is NOT onto something. Pretty much a no show north of highway 20.

[bud2380]

5 minutes ago, james1976 said:

I hope this model is NOT onto something. Pretty much a no show north of highway 20.

The Canadian has been very consistent with this further south band, it may be a tad too far south though.  I think the NWS snow forecast map is probably a pretty good one.  Anyone within the 4-8/5-9" region they have could see isolated higher totals, as is typically the case. 

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR is great, but I'm not liking how the NAM continues to surge sleet up into the CR/IC area.  Never underestimate the ability of warm air aloft to ruin a snowstorm.

[james1976]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

The HRRR is great, but I'm not liking how the NAM continues to surge sleet up into the CR/IC area.  Never underestimate the ability of warm air aloft to ruin a snowstorm.

No doubt. How many times. Luckily I think ill stay all snow up here.

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS is about the same, but the snow is less intense.  The snow band is a bit spotty.  This model has the biggest sleet/rain surge of any.  Maybe its thermals are too warm, but I'm thinking the HRRR may be too cold.

[CentralNebWeather]

My location:

GFS - 3.2”

RGEM - 10.3”

NAM - 5.2”

“pick a card, any card.” 

[jaster220]

16 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

12z GFS is about the same, but the snow is less intense.  The snow band is a bit spotty.  This model has the biggest sleet/rain surge of any.  Maybe its thermals are too warm, but I'm thinking the HRRR may be too cold.

Warmest model, via Kuchera = dusting here. Lock it!

[Minny_Weather]

12Z RGEM has better Fgen than 06Z... But lower amounts?

[bud2380]

no change on the Canadian

 

[Grizzcoat]

Long range RAP (15z) has 1' plus right through the heart of the Hawkeye State.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Canadian on pivotal weather. Has been the most consistent model. Does that mean it will verify?  Who knows. 

[BMT]

Snow blower fired on the first pull.  I think I just jinxed us

[bud2380]

Here is the RAP that Grizz mentioned.  It's still on the north end of guidance.  But it shows the potential for some big totals anyways.

 

[gabel23]

Hastings mentioned this morning expect some changes, will see if those warnings get expanded. 
 

temperatures, both at the surface and aloft will have a large impact
on snow and ice accumulations. With the uncertainty in the forecast,
there could be significant changes to the current forecast as the
time comes closer for this system.

[Bryan1117]

9 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z Canadian on pivotal weather. Has been the most consistent model. Does that mean it will verify?  Who knows. 

If this verifies, the Oma-dome most certainly exists haha...

Literally I am expecting anything from an inch of snow/sleet to 10" of snow at this point LOL. 

[Hawkeye]

Parallel GFS

[james1976]

Whats up with these short range models going bonkers?

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

If this verifies, the Oma-dome most certainly exists haha...

Literally I am expecting anything from an inch of snow/sleet to 10" of snow at this point LOL. 

We are only hours away, and models can vary by 6” or more. It’s not like we are tracking a storm this Friday. My wife asked me this morning about this big storm I talked about last week and when it was supposed to come. I answered late tonight and tomorrow, but I have no idea what will occur. She gave me her famous “are you kidding me look.”  I’ve gotten that look in many none weather situations.

[Bellona]

4 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Whats up with these short range models going bonkers?

I don't know It would be amazing if that verified though!

[St Paul Storm]

24 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Whats up with these short range models going bonkers?

Seems awfully familiar. Remember what they did with the storm here before Christmas? 12-18” and we ended with 8”. The dynamics with this system don’t really scream whopping totals. At least not a wide swath. We’ll see. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Good ol' Jim Flowers mentioned the lightning showing up in the HRRR and the SREF higher numbers likely to verify if there was convection