bud2380 Posted December 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Pivotal is taking forever to load. Here is the GFS through 36 hours on TT. THis includes sleet though, so hard for me to gauge this other than, this is some heavy precip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Okay I am super confused. They just added Cass and Otoe counties into Winter Storm Warnings. This does not include Lancaster or Douglas/Omaha. They also included several counties in SW Iowa. They must be favoring the more southern solutions? OAX: for 4-7" and Wind gust over 35mph Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Pivotal is taking forever to load. Here is the GFS through 36 hours on TT. THis includes sleet though, so hard for me to gauge this other than, this is some heavy precip 18z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, NH4NU said: Okay I am super confused. They just added Cass and Otoe counties into Winter Storm Warnings. This does not include Lancaster or Douglas/Omaha. They also included several counties in SW Iowa. They must be favoring the more southern solutions? That's weird. I thought it might be the higher potential for ice on top of snow but then the WSW is saying 4-7" vs. 3-5" for the advisory. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said: 18z GFS yuck. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 GFS switched back to way warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, NH4NU said: Okay I am super confused. They just added Cass and Otoe counties into Winter Storm Warnings. This does not include Lancaster or Douglas/Omaha. They also included several counties in SW Iowa. They must be favoring the more southern solutions? My guess is that they may add us but knowing OAX probably will wait until tomorrow morning at 5 am. Lol they are terrible for that. They are probably basing it on the serf plumes, and short range models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Winter Weather Advisory for Omaha now has 3-5" and up to 0.25" ice, instead of 3-6" snow and up to 0.10" ice. Updated OAX graphics attached. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, Stormhunter87 said: My guess is that they may add us but knowing OAX probably will wait until tomorrow morning at 5 am. Lol they are terrible for that. They are probably basing it on the serf plumes, and short range models. Crazy that I am agreeing with this but that is right where my mind went in that they are playing it safe... I could easily have seen Sarpy, Douglas, Saunders, and or Washington go before Cass and Otoe.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Output for my location is now saying 3-7 instead of 3-5 my guess is they are hedging between the short range models and the long range ones. They do like to play it super safe. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Of course there has to be p-type issues. We couldn't just get a huge moisture laden storm down here without warm air ruining it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, bud2380 said: GFS switched back to way warm. The para is still cold and has a nice 8-10" band through CR/IC. The op GFS is alone with it's solution of ZR/IP through hwy 20. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Not that it necessarily correlates to this storm, but the GFS struggled with the thermos on the last big storm, no? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, East Dubzz said: Not that it necessarily correlates to this storm, but the GFS struggled with the thermos on the last big storm, no? Always does. It's a decent model but still has major issues. NAM is the same way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, East Dubzz said: Not that it necessarily correlates to this storm, but the GFS struggled with the thermos on the last big storm, no? Yes, it really did. It showed 1/2" of snow for here and many locations due to poor handling of the thermal profiles in eastern Iowa and we got 4-5". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Local 10/11 Met just said he wouldn't be surprised if more counties locally are upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings prior to end of the day. Also RAP with another great run for many! https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2020122821&fh=26&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Modeling keeps trending south so hopefully this will limit the sleet and freezing rain potential. Looking more like ORD and surrounding counties will get their first meaningful/plowable snowfall this winter season and avoid a shutout. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Yeah based on OAX forecast discussion they will be keeping Omaha metro out of the warning. They feel like the warm air will get in and limit totals. They are basically riding gfs/nam solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Stormhunter87 said: Yeah based on OAX forecast discussion they will be keeping Omaha metro out of the warning. They feel like the warm air will get in a win out for totals. They are basically riding gfs/nam solution. I would too after all the busted storms similar to these in the past! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 18z parallel GFS 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Anyone have access to the graf model? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 A closer view of the current run of the RAP 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post St Paul Storm Posted December 28, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Doesn’t get much more spread the wealth in the Midwest. 9 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 DMX sticking with 4-8". I'm still hoping for 6. Let's go! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 FGF going with 2-4" with isolated 5". Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 I haven't seen a parallel Euro forecast in a couple days. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 23 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: I haven't seen a parallel Euro forecast in a couple days. It has looked so similar to the op that I haven’t been posting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post dubuque473 Posted December 29, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 2 7 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 First flakes beginning to fall here at 6:55 pm. Absolutely no wind. So odd in this part of the country. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Updated from KCCI - 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 00z HRRR thru 22hrs (as it moves out of Nebraska) https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2020122900&fh=22&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 HRRR still looks really good but we won’t be seeing any 17” totals this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Hrrr 00z 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Ground is starting to whiten up, though not collecting on the streets yet, but my driveway is covered. It is a very wet snow. Not slick yet as I took a short drive around town. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 This HRRR run is more realistic with snow totals. The precip clears a bit earlier and ends with a mix, too. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Local met has 6-8 for me. 8-12 for CR-DBQ! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 I’d be ecstatic with 9” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Nam 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 12k NAM is back north one county with the sleet. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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