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December 29th - 30th Snowstorm


bud2380

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Yuck... 3k NAM is more aggressive with the warm advection aloft than any run over the last day.  Cedar Rapids only gets 3 hours of snow this run.  Disaster run for sure.  Let's hope it's wrong.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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If I have to bet, I'll usually put my money on models that are more aggressive with warm advection and sleet.  That's why I'm suddenly worried.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Hawkeye is right. In these situations, it's always best to assume WAA wins, because it usually does. ESPECIALLY in this setup when the antecedent airmass is so poor. No real deep cold to impede WAA so why would it stop? 

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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NWS Omaha hinting that they are looking at expanding the Winter Storm Warnings north towards the Omaha metro. They mentioned in their latest Forecast Discussion update that the trends on the HRRR, RAP, and NAM may have the heaviest band set up over the Omaha metro, however that this is a very complicated forecast that could go either way. 

I am going with 4 to 7" here in Omaha, which I would be more than happy with... let it snow, let it snow, let it snow! 

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A little guidance on using the HRRR / RAP-- just my .02, but years of experience (paid professional in the field) is the following; as previously mentioned, don't trust either past 8-10 hours, maybe 12 when they are hot. Most cases, both are inflated 25-35% of what actually falls past  10-12 hours. If you see- and this is about 20% of the time- totals go up as you get within 10-12 hours , a very good sign. Most time, they go down just for correction as the event nears. People often ask which is better/?  I'll take HRRR in severe weather and RAP in winter weather. hands down. When the RAP shows blue over you for snow within 10-12 hours, it's coming down. Good Luck to all!!

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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To show how far off the thermals are on the GFS (not dogmatic, but very likely)= 00Z GFS is calling for .84" of ice accumulation in DSM. NWS is calling for TR to .1. Time will tell, and maybe the GFS scores the coup, but I highly doubt it. It's a WSW, not ISW. 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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