CentralNebWeather Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Yuck... 3k NAM is more aggressive with the warm advection aloft than any run over the last day. Cedar Rapids only gets 3 hours of snow this run. Disaster run for sure. Let's hope it's wrong. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Go NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Yep. 3 km nam would be big time bust for I-80 corridor. But to play for 10", you gotta be willing to get the shaft with sleet. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Honestly gonna have to wait and see where the sleet ends up. If I had to hedge bets, it’s that it pushes more north. Gonna hold with my 6” call. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Big difference between 3km and 12km 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Rap at end of run 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 If I have to bet, I'll usually put my money on models that are more aggressive with warm advection and sleet. That's why I'm suddenly worried. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Big difference between 3km and 12km I dont really buy it but wow I'd take it. All I know is.......keep me all snow, baby! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 The NAM Hi Res has gone from 2" as of 12z yesterday up to 6.7" this afternoon and now back to 2" tonight... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 For those of us close to I-80 , let's hope 00z Nam suite is an outlier. If RDPS goes N, serious concerns here. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Sure appears many models tonight are shifting north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 NAMs bring 6"+ amounts pretty dang close to me. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 9 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: For those of us close to I-80 , let's hope 00z Nam suite is an outlier. If RDPS goes N, serious concerns here. I really am curious to see if RDPS keeps up it's consistency! She just fired up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 OMA/LNK could get 6-8" or like 1" from this. Seems like every storm this winter and 19-20 has marginal thermals. 17-18 and 18-19 rarely had mixing issues to worry about. 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 RDPS still south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 My point forecast was 1-3” tonight. It was just updated to 3-5”. Interesting. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Icon took a jump north. Almost identical to nam 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Hawkeye is right. In these situations, it's always best to assume WAA wins, because it usually does. ESPECIALLY in this setup when the antecedent airmass is so poor. No real deep cold to impede WAA so why would it stop? 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Watch out for that icon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Looks like dvn expanded warnings SE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 02 rap looking good for omaha/lincoln/fremont 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 0z RDPS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Some single digit temps up in NW Iowa already at this hour. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, BMT said: Some single digit temps up in NW Iowa already at this hour. Down to 16 here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 NWS Omaha hinting that they are looking at expanding the Winter Storm Warnings north towards the Omaha metro. They mentioned in their latest Forecast Discussion update that the trends on the HRRR, RAP, and NAM may have the heaviest band set up over the Omaha metro, however that this is a very complicated forecast that could go either way. I am going with 4 to 7" here in Omaha, which I would be more than happy with... let it snow, let it snow, let it snow! 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Hrrr 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 A little guidance on using the HRRR / RAP-- just my .02, but years of experience (paid professional in the field) is the following; as previously mentioned, don't trust either past 8-10 hours, maybe 12 when they are hot. Most cases, both are inflated 25-35% of what actually falls past 10-12 hours. If you see- and this is about 20% of the time- totals go up as you get within 10-12 hours , a very good sign. Most time, they go down just for correction as the event nears. People often ask which is better/? I'll take HRRR in severe weather and RAP in winter weather. hands down. When the RAP shows blue over you for snow within 10-12 hours, it's coming down. Good Luck to all!! 7 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 -1 here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Gfs vs16 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 To show how far off the thermals are on the GFS (not dogmatic, but very likely)= 00Z GFS is calling for .84" of ice accumulation in DSM. NWS is calling for TR to .1. Time will tell, and maybe the GFS scores the coup, but I highly doubt it. It's a WSW, not ISW. 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Douglas/Omaha & Sarpy Counties in Nebraska just upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning! 5-7" with .1" ice 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, NH4NU said: Douglas/Omaha & Sarpy Counties in Nebraska just upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning! 5-7" with .1" ice Heck yeah, just got the alert for the WSW upgrade on my phone... let the fun begin! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 0z Canadian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Has the Canadian budged since last week? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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