December 29th - 30th Snowstorm

[bud2380]

So basically every model but the NAM still showing heavy snow for Iowa city and CR. 

[CentralNebWeather]

12 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Has the Canadian budged since last week?

Not a bit. I don’t remember ever seeing that before. 

[bud2380]

3z RAP shows an expansive area of 6”+ across eastern NE and much of Iowa. 

[Minny_Weather]

Shift RAP North about 30 miles and I'd take it and run with it. Feel like that would make most of us on here happy.

[gabel23]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Sure appears many models tonight are shifting north. 

Radar looks impressive around your area, any report?! That band looks impressive. 

[Minny_Weather]

Wow, radar in Central Nebraska looks great.

[Stormhunter87]

Hmmm twist and turns right now. My local forecast now 3-7. I want the 7, but thermals are worry some. I'll go with 4-6 and a layer of ice. Good luck all!

[CentralNebWeather]

6 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Radar looks impressive around your area, any report?! That band looks impressive. 

Been snowing hard for several hours. No official reports. Probably 2-2.5” just eyeballing it. 

[CentralNebWeather]

5 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Wow, radar in Central Nebraska looks great.

I would say over performing so far. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Local Sheriff Deputy put on his Twitter page just now that there is easily 2-3” in spots, roads are completely covered and getting slick. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Same Deputy reported multiple slide offs in the last hour here in Phelps County on Highway 6 east of town and Highway 183 north of town. Urging people to stay home as visibility in these heavy bands has dropped to a 1/4 mile  

[CentralNebWeather]

Current view from Viaero Cam. 

[jcwxguy]

Ukie

 

 

[Hawkeye]

NAM and UK not even close.  For southern Iowa, NAM has 0-2", UK has 6-11".

[The Snowman]

Southeast Nebraska saved from a mere 3" total by an eleventh-hour model consensus ... think my 3" call might need to be bumped up to 5"

[hlcater]

CR/IC sitting beautifully for high end QPF. I just cant shake the feeling I'll be hearing pings on the window tomorrow night.

[snowstorm83]

1 minute ago, The Snowman said:

Southeast Nebraska saved from a mere 3" total by an eleventh-hour model consensus ... think my 3" call might need to be bumped up to 5"

Starting to think I'm missing out on a decent event. Looks like Lincoln should get a solid front end thump at least. I'll be slightly upset if I miss the first 5"+ storm since Feb 2019, but at least it'll still be fresh and waiting on me when I get back. 

[The Snowman]

7 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Starting to think I'm missing out on a decent event. Looks like Lincoln should get a solid front end thump at least. I'll be slightly upset if I miss the first 5"+ storm since Feb 2019, but at least it'll still be fresh and waiting on me when I get back. 

On the plus side, long-range guidance expects a wicked trough in the Gulf of Alaska after January 4th, combined with an expansive ridge in eastern Canada which could extend into the East U.S. ... in other words, ample storm opportunities with at least some chance for our area to be impacted if that East U.S. ridging comes to fruition (which could be a lot to ask for, since that eastern Canadian ridge also extends into Greenland as a de facto -NAO)

[Hawkeye]

Euro holding serve

[james1976]

I dont get that weird gap in western Iowa 

[gabel23]

4 minutes ago, james1976 said:

I dont get that weird gap in western Iowa 

I don’t either. That extends back and then into my county. 4-6 to my north and south. 2-4 then splitting my county. You would think the warning gets expanded west from omaha and that gap fills. 

[clintbeed1993]

Point forecast went down despite accumulating snow starting earlier than models depicted. WTF Hastings NWS?

[Stormy]

NWS DVN tweeted this. 
 

[jcwxguy]

rap continues to show 6-8 for lincoln/omaha/fremont

 

[Stormhunter87]

This band appears early.

[jcwxguy]

weather channel now calling for 6-11 inches of snow in lincoln and fremont, omaha

which unfortunately probably means bust LOL

[centralweather44]

Radar shows snow moved into Lincoln area but nothing hitting the ground. Dry air, typical problem with decent snows here. Dewpoint at 17. Going to take a bit to saturate. 

[snowstorm83]

14 minutes ago, centralweather44 said:

Radar shows snow moved into Lincoln area but nothing hitting the ground. Dry air, typical problem with decent snows here. Dewpoint at 17. Going to take a bit to saturate. 

Looking at webcams I'm seeing flakes in southern and western parts of the city, it's coming

[snowstorm83]

Unless the radar is overdone, Lincoln is about to get a band of yellow pass through. Holy shhh that should put down a quick couple inches. 

[Minny_Weather]

Wow, I love those returns over Lincoln.

[Tom]

37 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Unless the radar is overdone, Lincoln is about to get a band of yellow pass through. Holy shhh that should put down a quick couple inches. 

No joke, those are some high dbz returns that moved through...

 

[Tom]

This 1st initial wave means business...nice way to start the party...

 

Current conditions at

Lincoln, Lincoln Municipal Airport (KLNK)

Lat: 40.83°NLon: 96.76°WElev: 1214ft.

Snow Freezing Fog

23°F

-5°C

Humidity	85%
Wind Speed	NE 17 G 21 mph
Barometer	30.32 in (1028.1 mb)
Dewpoint	19°F (-7°C)
Visibility	0.50 mi
Wind Chill	9°F (-13°C)
Last update	29 Dec 2:54 am CST

[Tom]

Nice write up from LOT on the possibility of extended the warnings farther SE and including the heavy snow wording...I don't recall seeing those words in an AFD in quite some time...looks like we will have some fat dendrites falling from the sky later today...

Quote

Precipitation type looks to be snow, and it appears that it could
be heavy for few hour period into early Tuesday evening. Model
forecast soundings indicate favorable conditions for heavy snow,
namely very steep mid-level lapse rates with forced ascent
becoming maximized with the dendritic growth zone. This in
combination with deep isothermal layer around -3 to -4 C from the
surface to around 700 mb also suggests the likelihood for good
aggregation and large snow flakes. With this in mind, I would not
be surprised to see some 1 to 2 inch per hour rates over far
northern IL for a period early Tuesday evening.

 

Quote

The main thing we will continue to monitor is if the winter storm
warning needs any adjustment south and eastward, possibly into
northwestern parts of the Chicago metro due to the possibility
for heavy snowfall rates dropping 3 to 6 inches in a matter of a
few hours.

 

[DSM WeatherNut]

59 minutes ago, Tom said:

No joke, those are some high dbz returns that moved through...

 

Wherever this tilts and spins will be the winners..

[DSM WeatherNut]

Going to be a white out in Omaha soon.  16 and Dodge cam should good.
https://www.wowt.com/weather/cams/

 

[Tom]

It's nice to be finally tracking a system that has cold air out ahead of it.  Temps have dipped into the 10's locally (17F) along with pockets of single digits in NW IL.  Frozen ground should aid in rapid accumulations.  Snow should be falling around dinner time (5:00pm).  Looking forward to seeing the flakes fly at a rapid clip for a few hours tonight along with cold temps. 

 

[DSM WeatherNut]

Dry slot looks to be heading toward NE Iowa on radar as well

[jcwxguy]

Been pure rippage here for about 25 minutes (fremont)

[Tom]

Latest HRRR showing a nice swath of snow across N IL through 3:00am tomorrow morning...you guys in E IA are in for a treat...

[NH4NU]

Convection & lightning spotted in central Kansas just a few min ago. Also a Mesoscale for most of KS for enhanced mix precip/ice. Today should be fun!