December 29th - 30th Snowstorm

[bud2380]

Model trends are good this morning for those of us in eastern Iowa. I have to imagine some office will start to issue watches this afternoon. Especially the Nebraska offices. 

[Money]

Gem is a huge ice storm for central IL 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Canadian 

 

[Clinton]

12z GFS Mean

[Clinton]

GEM further east.

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS Mean

Seems to me it is slowly shifting SE, esp in IA/WI...shift it about another 100-150 miles...

[Clinton]

Just now, Tom said:

Seems to me it is slowly shifting SE, esp in IA/WI...shift it about another 100-150 miles...

12z CMC likes Chicago and southern Mich.  

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z CMC likes Chicago and southern Mich.  

If the Ukie remains south or even nudges a bit more south, I'll give kudos to the Canadian for leading the way for the 1st wave.  It's been rock steady on the southerly solution.

[Money]

Just now, Tom said:

If the Ukie remains south or even nudges a bit more south, I'll give kudos to the Canadian for leading the way for the 1st wave.  It's been rock steady on the southerly solution.

It’s not even set in stone even if the ukie heads south 

[bud2380]

Gotta wait for the snow maps but it sure looks like the UKIE didn’t change much. 

[james1976]

I like we're I'm sitting but still a couple days out. I think I stay cold enough for all snow at least. 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

Looking back in years past, I think the last time the MW/GL's tracked a large winter storm was back on Jan '99 if I'm not mistaken.  Iirc, that storm started off on NYE into New Year's Day and delivered quite the blizzard in the region.  I was a senior in H.S. back then and remember filling up my car with gas the day before the storm (the price of gas was .95/gal back then).  It would be awesome if this storm could come together and deliver something similar.

Meantime, 06z GEFS still showing a wound up S stream Lower Lakes cutter....

2011 was the last S. stream mega-storm. But if you meant "at New Years" then yeah, 1999. But without a stout arctic air mass in place, Idk how we could compare this with that. To me, this would be more akin to a moisture bomb with a much narrower swath of good snow where the thermals are just cold enough to make mostly snow. Jan '99 maximized qpf ratios due to the cold in a massive region.

Chicago flash-back:

 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

I'm still a bit nervous where I sit as there could still very well be a warm nose out ahead of this storm like we saw earlier on in the season.  The trends in the GEFS backing westward need to stop...I'd like to see more H.P. to the north rather than having it slide east before the storm cuts up this way.  It's like the "up tenth" time this season and in seasons past, we literally need all elements come together.  If its not one thing, it's another...so, hopefully this is the one that breaks the trend.

As we should be. Warm air masses have ruled so far. Warm air was the reason all those wound-up bomb depictions a month ago failed and the system remained progressive (kudos to GRR) missing SWMI to the east. Now, warmth may be the reason we get more rain/mix/mess than snow. With that HP northeast of us stronger than the one NW of us up in Canadian provinces. Already too many globals have the S. streamer way west of us. Still time ofc, if seasonal trends had been our friend I'd be less concerned. Could look on the cheery side and just say it beats tracking CAD.

[jaster220]

54 minutes ago, Tom said:

Seems to me it is slowly shifting SE, esp in IA/WI...shift it about another 100-150 miles...

I think wave #1 is a lost cause for us, no? Best we could hope for is less dynamic system to minimize the amount of warmth pulled N ahead of it. What am I missing that causes optimism for us further E wrt the first wave?

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie with I-80 special in IA. Stayed the same from 00z.

[Tom]

12z GEFS...way to many members showing the warm air tongue lifting north and east of the SLP...

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

Canadian and UK will not budge from the more south wave 1 snow band.

[The Snowman]

NWS Omaha's first take

[Tom]

8 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I think wave #1 is a lost cause for us, no? Best we could hope for is less dynamic system to minimize the amount of warmth pulled N ahead of it. What am I missing that causes optimism for us further E wrt the first wave?

We can still get a decent front end thump, but remaining all snow is a long stretch.  If the overall track of the 1st wave can trend a little farther south it can aid in having a track of the deeper S stream low to not cut so much N/NW.

[Hawkeye]

Big NW shift from the UK with wave 2.

[hlcater]

Trends with wave 1 are encouraging for our area. I also think the further south wave 1 tracks, the harder it will be for wave 2 to cut super hard, whether that’s enough to keep the mix out of Iowa remains to be seen. But I’d feel good if wave 1 drops sig snow as far south as I80.

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

That's exactly what I was looking for...man, that's a decent front-end thump...

[OmahaSnowFan]

3 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

NWS Omaha's first take

Yawner. Another 2-6" storm.

[Tom]

12z UKIE...

[bud2380]

7 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Lock that in! Winter Storm Warning snows for my backyard 

[Tom]

12z UKIE...looking much better, now if the EURO would agree...

[The Snowman]

Parallel GFS... been a while since Omaha's gotten any >6" love from this one

[Tom]

Hey, lets not forget @OKwx2k4 @Clinton

[jaster220]

4 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yawner. Another 2-6" storm.

Yeah. where'd all those 30+ maps from a few days ago? Model "improvements" have ruined this hobby imho.

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z UKIE...looking much better, now if the EURO would agree...

Has the UK actually led with any storm this early season tho?

[james1976]

Why does the Parallel GFS keep showing ridiculous amounts? Lol

[Clinton]

9 minutes ago, Tom said:

Hey, lets not forget @OKwx2k4 @Clinton

Just need a slight westward shift.

[The Snowman]

ECMWF will tick south 

[Hawkeye]

Euro is south!

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Has the UK actually led with any storm this early season tho?

Yes it has done well...even in times of showing bad outcom when all the other models are showing a promising storm it remained steady showing a sheared out or suppressed storm.  

[Hawkeye]

Woo.... it appears the Euro keeps Cedar Rapids all snow from wave 1.

[Hawkeye]

The snow band continues to gradually weaken compared to previous days, but it is also significantly south of where it was.

[james1976]

Going from something epic to prolly advisory snows for me at this rate. Not liking the south shift.

[Tom]

Just now, Hawkeye said:

The snow band continues to gradually weaken compared to previous days, but it is also significantly south of where it was.

Slow improvements are a + trend in my book...now let’s see what the main event will show...