December 29th - 30th Snowstorm

[Hawkeye]

Models are showing significant energy moving into the west coast and diving in behind the second wave, which helps lift the storm north into our region.

[Money]

Euro looks like it’s gonna come west with the second wave from 0z

[Tom]

Just now, Hawkeye said:

Models are showing significant energy moving into the west coast and diving in behind the second wave, which helps lift the storm north into our region.

The good ol’ “kicker”...I was looking into that feature earlier this morning.

[Hawkeye]

Euro is not the only model showing a healthy batch of freezing rain on the north side of the lifting storm.

[Money]

Big old ice storm. Pretty widespread also 

[Clinton]

Euro with a nasty looking ice storm for mby.

[Hawkeye]

Yikes

[james1976]

This seems like 2 separate storms.....?

[Hawkeye]

Man, if only this was all snow.

[Clinton]

The low almost stalls north of St. Louis and wobbles NW.

[Hawkeye]

Topeka to Des Moines to Decorah gets the best snow.  And this low starts out in the nw gulf.

[bud2380]

Changes from ice to snow pretty rapidly in Iowa and hits central Iowa pretty hard 

[james1976]

I can't see that 2nd storm coming that far north based off the first wave track. What a weird complex situation. 

[Hawkeye]

[Money]

East central Iowa up into SW/C WI see the best snow combined. 12+ 

[bud2380]

Yeah. We really need another thread for that as these are two days apart and basically two separate systems. 

[hlcater]

With such powerful WAA aloft, another aspect of this 2nd low is that there probably will be ice for someone if the setup doesn’t change. 

[mlgamer]

Euro has a great track for me, but still 5 days out so there's the rub...

[Clinton]

12z Euro

[Tom]

Should we have a separate storm thread and call this one the New Years storm?  I see how both systems are coming from the same trough hitting So Cal but it looks like the main show will be the 2nd piece.  Suggestions?

[james1976]

^^^I can only dream lol

[Clinton]

Just now, Tom said:

Should we have a separate storm thread and call this one the New Years storm?  I see how both systems are coming from the same trough hitting So Cal but it looks like the main show will be the 2nd piece.  Suggestions?

Yes please

[james1976]

Just now, Tom said:

Should we have a separate storm thread and call this one the New Years storm?  I see how both systems are coming from the same trough hitting So Cal but it looks like the main show will be the 2nd piece.  Suggestions?

Personally I'd say 2. There seems to be a gap between em.

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Yeah. We really need another thread for that as these are two days apart and basically two separate systems. 

 

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Yeah. We really need another thread for that as these are two days apart and basically two separate systems. 

I say fire it up...

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, james1976 said:

^^^I can only dream lol

As most Nebraskans dreams of an epic storm have turned into a nightmare. Omaha and Lincoln peeps can’t be happy with the snow reductions. Nothing surprises me anymore with models overdoing amounts. 

[Hawkeye]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Should we have a separate storm thread and call this one the New Years storm?  I see how both systems are coming from the same trough hitting So Cal but it looks like the main show will be the 2nd piece.  Suggestions?

Yeah, models have really split the two waves now, so let's also divide them.

[hlcater]

I started a new one. Probably jinxed it so it’ll be strung out garbage

[bud2380]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

As most Nebraskans dreams of an epic storm have turned into a nightmare. Omaha and Lincoln peeps can’t be happy with the snow reductions. Nothing surprises me anymore with models overdoing amounts. 

Here’s a closeup of Nebraska. Not sure exactly where you are located without looking it up, but still some solid snows for much of the state. Sadly we all knew the 20” totals shown a few days ago would never materialize. 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Here’s a closeup of Nebraska. Not sure exactly where you are located without looking it up, but still some solid snows for much of the state. Sadly we all knew the 20” totals shown a few days ago would never materialize. 

3”. Was solidly in the 8-12” swath for days. The problem will be rain or ice that washes some of these amounts away. 

[The Snowman]

GFS ENS have gradually raised totals in Omaha over the last four runs, from 5" to somewhere inside the 8" realm. GFS itself has hovered around 7-9" for the last few runs ... nothing material to speak of, just interesting that the model which started out as one of the most lackluster for the Omaha area (a few days back when the ECMWF still had >12" totals) is now arguably leading the charge for highest totals. Weird storm.

[Clinton]

12z Euro control

[Clinton]

12z Euro mean

[Hawkeye]

It should snow hard.  It's a shame this will be yet another mostly after-dark storm.  Fortunately, Friday's storm looks mostly after sunrise.

[The Snowman]

Point-and-click forecast has a wintry mix Tuesday with a high of 31 ... not super excited about the prospect of ice or sleet

[snowstorm83]

22 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

GFS ENS have gradually raised totals in Omaha over the last four runs, from 5" to somewhere inside the 8" realm. GFS itself has hovered around 7-9" for the last few runs ... nothing material to speak of, just interesting that the model which started out as one of the most lackluster for the Omaha area (a few days back when the ECMWF still had >12" totals) is now arguably leading the charge for highest totals. Weird storm.

1.32" of QPF at KLNK on the 12z. Looks like much of it falling at 33-34 and ice/sleet that is registering as snow on a lot of maps. 

[snowstorm83]

OTOH, only 0.4" of QPF on the Euro, but all snow. So either we'll get a lot of moisture with a nasty mess, or not much with some snow. 

[The Snowman]

3 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

OTOH, only 0.4" of QPF on the Euro, but all snow. So either we'll get a lot of moisture with a nasty mess, or not much with some snow. 

Maybe if we wish for rain we can trick the storm into dumping snow across the state!

[Grizzcoat]

2 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

OTOH, only 0.4" of QPF on the Euro, but all snow. So either we'll get a lot of moisture with a nasty mess, or not much with some snow. 

Yep- anyone wants text data, look me up.

 

[Grizzcoat]

[The Snowman]

10 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

Maybe if we wish for rain we can trick the storm into dumping snow across the state!

Point-and-click is back to all snow instead of a snow-mix combo, clearly the strategy has paid off