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December 29th - 30th Snowstorm


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18z parallel GFS

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season snowfall: 32.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2" hour rates at DSM!! KDSM 291854Z 10009KT 1/8SM R31/1400V1600FT SN FZFG VV004 M05/M07 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 PRESFR SLP217 SNINCR 2/3 P0019 T10501067

Doesn’t get much more spread the wealth in the Midwest. 

7" here

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FGF going with 2-4" with isolated 5".

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.5"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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I haven't seen a parallel Euro forecast in a couple days.

season snowfall: 32.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This HRRR run is more realistic with snow totals.  The precip clears a bit earlier and ends with a mix, too.

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season snowfall: 32.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12k NAM is back north one county with the sleet.

season snowfall: 32.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yuck... 3k NAM is more aggressive with the warm advection aloft than any run over the last day.  Cedar Rapids only gets 3 hours of snow this run.  Disaster run for sure.  Let's hope it's wrong.

season snowfall: 32.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yep. 3 km nam would be big time bust for I-80 corridor. But to play for 10", you gotta be willing to get the shaft with sleet.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Honestly gonna have to wait and see where the sleet ends up. If I had to hedge bets, it’s that it pushes more north. Gonna hold with my 6” call.

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 31.4"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8")

 

Formerly NWLinn

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If I have to bet, I'll usually put my money on models that are more aggressive with warm advection and sleet.  That's why I'm suddenly worried.

season snowfall: 32.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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For those of us close to I-80 , let's hope 00z Nam suite is an outlier. If RDPS goes N, serious concerns here.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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NAMs bring 6"+ amounts pretty dang close to me.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.5"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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OMA/LNK could get 6-8" or like 1" from this. Seems like every storm this winter and 19-20 has marginal thermals. 17-18 and 18-19 rarely had mixing issues to worry about. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 32.2" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Hawkeye is right. In these situations, it's always best to assume WAA wins, because it usually does. ESPECIALLY in this setup when the antecedent airmass is so poor. No real deep cold to impede WAA so why would it stop? 

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 31.4"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8")

 

Formerly NWLinn

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NWS Omaha hinting that they are looking at expanding the Winter Storm Warnings north towards the Omaha metro. They mentioned in their latest Forecast Discussion update that the trends on the HRRR, RAP, and NAM may have the heaviest band set up over the Omaha metro, however that this is a very complicated forecast that could go either way. 

I am going with 4 to 7" here in Omaha, which I would be more than happy with... let it snow, let it snow, let it snow! 

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