December 29th - 30th Snowstorm

[bud2380]

[Hawkeye]

The kuchera map still favors a bit north of CR, but it's close enough if it pans out.

[james1976]

7" for me on Kuchera. I'll be shocked if that happens. South trend is not my friend. Gonna be down to advisory level by the time this thing gets here. 

[Grizzcoat]

For those following- the maps BUD just posted are to the T accurate from text data I get. Not saying it's right, but they correspond exactly based on thermals. Also- the Euro has cooled , thermally in C.IA,, and most of IA. 

[james1976]

Just now, Grizzcoat said:

For those following- the maps BUD just posted are to the T accurate from text data I get. Not saying it's right, but they correspond exactly based on thermals. Also- the Euro has cooled , thermally in C.IA,, and most of IA. 

Thinking Kuchera wins out?

[Grizzcoat]

probably cursing myself, but I like where I sit. Even the low end= it's not going away anytime soon which is the big thing. 

[Grizzcoat]

2 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Thinking Kuchera wins out?

I have no clue. But the thermals are cooling on the Euro.  My gut says warnings in the morning for most following this. 

[james1976]

Id love to get at least 6". That doesn't happen every Winter for mby. Lot of 3 inchers but seems pretty difficult to get a 6+ storm.

[Grizzcoat]

totals for both waves= 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Omaha text for the winter storm watch has changed to 4-7" from 3-6".

[Grizzcoat]

hard to beat this = 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LAT = 41.60 LON = -93.88 00Z DEC28 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 00Z 28-DEC -0.9 -5.9 1015 75 56 543 532 MON 06Z 28-DEC -2.6 -8.8 1023 70 33 547 528 MON 12Z 28-DEC -4.5 -7.9 1028 64 12 0.00 546 524 MON 18Z 28-DEC -1.8 -9.6 1032 48 14 0.00 549 525 TUE 00Z 29-DEC -4.9 -9.2 1032 63 4 0.00 554 528 TUE 06Z 29-DEC -6.1 -6.6 1034 68 7 0.00 558 532 TUE 12Z 29-DEC -4.0 -2.5 1032 56 51 0.00 560 535 TUE 18Z 29-DEC -2.1 -2.8 1027 57 100 0.02 560 539 WED 00Z 30-DEC -3.9 -1.8 1020 91 100 0.52 557 542 WED 06Z 30-DEC -1.0 -1.6 1014 93 87 0.15 553 541 WED 12Z 30-DEC -2.7 -4.6 1017 90 34 0.00 549 536 WED 18Z 30-DEC -2.2 -6.4 1020 82 4 0.00 547 532 THU 00Z 31-DEC -6.0 -6.5 1022 82 5 0.00 546 529 THU 06Z 31-DEC -13.3 -5.0 1024 87 7 0.00 550 532 THU 12Z 31-DEC -16.3 -2.7 1024 94 8 0.00 554 535 THU 18Z 31-DEC -11.0 -0.4 1025 89 30 0.00 557 538 FRI 00Z 01-JAN -11.3 2.1 1023 88 27 0.00 559 541 FRI 06Z 01-JAN -9.7 1.9 1021 85 5 0.00 559 542 FRI 12Z 01-JAN -5.5 0.6 1014 87 84 0.01 554 543 FRI 18Z 01-JAN -3.5 -3.2 1010 90 99 0.33 547 540 SAT 00Z 02-JAN -4.1 -3.6 1012 88 95 0.23 547 537 SAT 06Z 02-JAN -7.5 -1.7 1017 82 84 0.01 550 537

[clintbeed1993]

Can anyone explain why this suddenly crapped the bed and dried out so bad in Nebraska? All I heard was how great the moisture was with this. If that's the case why are amounts so puny back west from the state line? This is back to looking like the EURO did days ago only much drier in the snow band west. Extremely annoying

[james1976]

Euro for the week is a dream. Man id love that

[Jack_GradStudent]

WOW. Latest Euro is quite impressive for Thursday-Friday. GFS and CMC are a bit further east than this. Would love to see those models hop on board within the next few runs. Also has freezing rain as a part of the solution; would make things quite interesting. Looking forward to tracking this. 

[centralweather44]

10 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

Can anyone explain why this suddenly crapped the bed and dried out so bad in Nebraska? All I heard was how great the moisture was with this. If that's the case why are amounts so puny back west from the state line? This is back to looking like the EURO did days ago only much drier in the snow band west. Extremely annoying

If I remember right the Euro was the only one giving us something worth while. GFS and all that was all moving north. CMC was one that was on our side. Trends over the past day and a half certainly haven’t been our friend in Nebraska no matter how we look at it. 

[Hawkeye]

15 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

Can anyone explain why this suddenly crapped the bed and dried out so bad in Nebraska? All I heard was how great the moisture was with this. If that's the case why are amounts so puny back west from the state line? This is back to looking like the EURO did days ago only much drier in the snow band west. Extremely annoying

A couple days ago the northern wave was digging and phasing with the southern wave over the plains, focusing the deep moisture farther west.  Now the waves are more split and the northern wave is sweeping through the region.  The deep moisture is veering northeast into Iowa and away from Nebraska.  There is also no wrapped up low now so even over here it's mostly a 4-8" event instead of 8-12+.

[Grizzcoat]

7 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

Can anyone explain why this suddenly crapped the bed and dried out so bad in Nebraska? All I heard was how great the moisture was with this. If that's the case why are amounts so puny back west from the state line? This is back to looking like the EURO did days ago only much drier in the snow band west. Extremely annoying

too much cold / dry air relative speaking. System doesn't really jive until longtitude 95 or so. Gulf Moisture is cut off west of 90. Those E  though will have to deal with potential mix issues. It comes with = riding the fine line , but I will walk it for the chance of a true warning event. Climate also. It's amazing when you look ay Qpf for a year and how much drier NE is compared to  E.IA, like 10"+ difference. 

[james1976]

Hoping I land in a warning. I'm ready for a big snow imby.

[jcwxguy]

Warning or not, hope I get 5+

[hlcater]

HRRR/NAM remain too warm for cedar rapids. 

[Tom]

00z Euro...so close....it's fascinating seeing the Canadian model so darn consistent as well as the UKIE.  Now the Euro is coming on board with a slight S shift for the 1st wave.  Over the last 24 hours of 00z runs, the Euro has shifted the main band of heavy snow about 50-75 miles SE across MN/IA/WI.

 

Below is the 00z run on the 27th...

[DSM WeatherNut]

Warnings are now posted..
https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=IAZ060&warncounty=IAC153&firewxzone=IAZ060&local_place1=Windsor Heights IA&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=41.6048&lon=-93.7119

 

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
324 AM CST Mon Dec 28 2020

...Significant Winter Storm across Iowa Tuesday into Wednesday
Morning...

.A winter storm will will begin to affect the region Tuesday
morning and bring with it widespread snowfall and then likely
periods of wintry mix including freezing rain that will make
travel difficult. Moderate to heavy snows are anticipated over
nearly all of central Iowa with heaviest amounts, greater than 6
inches, possible from southwest into east central Iowa. The
transition to a wintry mix, including freezing rain, will begin
Tuesday Night and further deteriorate travel conditions. Nearly
all of Interstates 80 and 35 will be affected across Iowa.


...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, highest end of that range in
  central Iowa. Wintry mix and ice accumulations less than a
  tenth of an inch following the snow.

* WHERE...Parts of northern and central Iowa

* WHEN...From 9 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could especially impact the Tuesday morning and
  Wednesday evening commutes. The weight of the snow and ice may
  also result in sagging tree limbs and damage, with power
  outages possible.

 

[dubuque473]

DVN has me down for 5-11” now.

I am officially banging the pots and pans together.

[Tom]

00z EPS...this is prob going to end up being one of the better "share the wealth" systems thus far this season.  Still waiting for that true I-80 special or CO Bowling ball this season.  

On a side note, I'm seeing a noticeable shift SE with the main heavy snow band per the EPS.  GEFS are also doing the same thing.

 

 

00z GEFS...

 

[DSM WeatherNut]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

00z EPS...this is prob going to end up being one of the better "share the wealth" systems thus far this season.  Still waiting for that true I-80 special or CO Bowling ball this season.  

On a side note, I'm seeing a noticeable shift SE with the main heavy snow band per the EPS.  GEFS are also doing the same thing.

 

 

00z GEFS...

 

Don't like that dry slot much but all the good ones have it and not a fun place to be in.

[Tom]

As we come into range of the higher rez models, some of them are seeing the colder solutions as per the Canadian model.  RN/SN line is south.

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, DSM WeatherNut said:

Don't like that dry slot much but all the good ones have it and not a fun place to be in.

I wouldn't really put much stock into that even though its a valid concern.  I think you guys in IA will fair well with a decent snow outta this one.  The pattern this season has been nice to you guys, however, the farther east around here it has not been so kind.  I'm looking to break that trend with this system.

[DSM WeatherNut]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I wouldn't really put much stock into that even though its a valid concern.  I think you guys in IA will fair well with a decent snow outta this one.  The pattern this season has been nice to you guys, however, the farther east around here it has not been so kind.  I'm looking to break that trend with this system.

I won't disagree with you there. Hopefully between the next two you will catch up.  Central Iowa has been hit with a few higher than models predicted or even "on the radar" storms. 

[james1976]

DMX mentioning the hrrr showing double digit totals and says that needs to be watched but for now going with 5-8 in heaviest zone. 

PS: I'm in a warning and pretty stoked about it

[Clinton]

3z SREF with double digit totals for parts of Iowa.

[GDR]

[bud2380]

6z euro 

[Stormhunter87]

Down to a WWA. Called it.

[bud2380]

The 6z HRRR has some crazy totals from Omaha to SW WI. I’m hoping that band in Iowa drops south on the 12z run 

[james1976]

3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The 6z HRRR has some crazy totals from Omaha to SW WI. I’m hoping that band in Iowa drops south on the 12z run 

Any chance you can post a map? Thanks in advance!

[james1976]

Advisories go all the way north of the twin cites thru most of S Dakota, all of Nebraska to the KS/OK state line. Lot of real estate. 

[bud2380]

This was the 6z HRRR. 12z is running now.

 

[Stormhunter87]

12z Here isn't a good  Thermals are going to be nutty here in Eastern Nebraska.

[bud2380]

12z HRRR is quite a bit further south than 6z. 

[bud2380]

HRRR showing snowfall rates of 2"/hour in eastern Iowa tomorrow afternoon.