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December 29th - 30th Snowstorm


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2" hour rates at DSM!! KDSM 291854Z 10009KT 1/8SM R31/1400V1600FT SN FZFG VV004 M05/M07 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 PRESFR SLP217 SNINCR 2/3 P0019 T10501067

Doesn’t get much more spread the wealth in the Midwest. 

7" here

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

Nice write up from LOT on the possibility of extended the warnings farther SE and including the heavy snow wording...I don't recall seeing those words in an AFD in quite some time...looks like we will have some fat dendrites falling from the sky later today...

 

 

Congrats to the GEM/Ukie and those winning from the SE trends. Tom, I'm hoping you indeed finally get hit in Chi-town. None too soon. Nice to see 80% SNOW in my grid regardless how little may be on the way here. I'd gladly trade my 3+ of pennies and nickles on the season for one 3.5" thump snow that has plows out and about. Good luck!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Congrats to the GEM/Ukie and those winning from the SE trends. Tom, I'm hoping you indeed finally get hit in Chi-town. None too soon. Nice to see 80% SNOW in my grid regardless how little may be on the way here. I'd gladly trade my 3+ of pennies and nickles on the season for one 3.5" thump snow that has plows out and about. Good luck!

Thanks Jaster!  I hope so to...its been a friggin' long time since I've seen something appreciable...and that goes for a lot of us here in Chitown.

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1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

How well does this model do? It gives me 5-6" but Forecast is calling for 2" at the most? 

Idk if you just live for negativity or what? But clearly this map from our office has a 4" amt on GR and you're there or north of that. Yesterday you said their WWA issued had 2-6" so the 4-ish seems right. You can trade places with me any time if you'd prefer. I'd be stoked for 4" in this crap pattern.

 

20201229 GRR Snowfall f-cast.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The 12z GDPS (Canadian) has also gotten rid of the heavy snow band south of I-80.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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15z HRRR still with 9-10” for Iowa city and CR. Snow reported in fort Madison. Should start here in the next hour or two. The snow looks very banded in nature so we could definitely see significantly different totals over a small areas. 

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Glad to see us doing well in Nebraska. My original plan was to come back the morning of the 29th but glad I didn't. I would miss most of it anyway and have to deal with terrible roads. As I'm typing though KLNK actually just changed to sleet LOL, I'm a curse. I think at least 5" at KLNK is a sure bet though. Can't wait to get back tomorrow, I'm getting bored and fat here back at home. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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3 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Glad to see us doing well in Nebraska. My original plan was to come back the morning of the 29th but glad I didn't. I would miss most of it anyway and have to deal with terrible roads. As I'm typing though KLNK actually just changed to sleet LOL, I'm a curse. I think KLNK at least 5" at KLNK is a sure bet though. Can't wait to get back tomorrow, I'm getting bored and fat here back at home. 

That sleet/mix line is rapidly advancing northeastwards. Hopefully everyone gets snow before the changeover. I am happy with what I got and fortunately for my area the precipitation shifted East so we didn’t have to deal with any freezing drizzle or other crappy stuff. 

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Top down saturation is happening well ahead of schedule. Looking like snow could be on the table in CR within the next hour or two. 

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Final UK.... now the southernmost model, drops CR to 6".

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, Sparky said:

Radar doesn’t appear very impressive for here till the good stuff from southern Iowa gets here. Flurries didn’t last long with no snow currently.

Models have never had any real snow here until about 1pm.

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season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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16z HRRR

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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There's a report coming out of Raymond with 7". I think 6-7" sounds like it'll be the KLNK total, will be the snowiest December since 2009. I've asked some friends how much there is but all they say is "a lot" or "a **** ton". That's helpful lol. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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I'm in Moorhead for work-related things, but it looks like there are decent returns outside right now. 21°F. I'll be freed at 1:30 or so.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.9"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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The NAM is losing with placement of the mixing line out in NE while the HRRR and the rest of guidance have been closer. With that in mind, I’m gonna revise my call to 8” in Cedar Rapids. 

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Final Euro

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Flurries/very light snow has begun in Hiawatha. 

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Steady light snow in Moorhead now. Wind is artificially making it look heavy.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.9"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Idk if you just live for negativity or what? But clearly this map from our office has a 4" amt on GR and you're there or north of that. Yesterday you said their WWA issued had 2-6" so the 4-ish seems right. You can trade places with me any time if you'd prefer. I'd be stoked for 4" in this crap pattern.

 

20201229 GRR Snowfall f-cast.png

Thanks, I'm mostly negative.   I fully expect a quick thump 1/2" and then get dry slotted only to turn to fr drizzle.  Wait to you hear my thoughts on the next storm and upcoming first days of January.

 

rachel dratch snl GIF by Saturday Night Live

 

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Flake size here is not impressive. I think need to be closer to WAA. Vis is down but not totally due to snow. No way 8" reached here if flake size doesn't go back to what it was.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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although this is a good sign from GRR AFD:

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 PM EST Tue Dec 29 2020

slightly sooner arrival of the snow is expected this evening so
the headline start A time was moved up.

The winter weather advisory was expanded as well.

Impacts are expected for the Wednesday morning commute for the
remainder of the CWA. As a result we will expand the headline to
include places like Lansing and Battle Creek. Mainly snow is
expected to the north of a Holland to Grand Rapids to Alma line
where 4 to 6 inches looks likely. Further south the snow arrives
tonight with a couple inches possible. A period of freezing rain
or sleet looks likely before temperatures rise above freezing
late.
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