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December 29th - 30th Snowstorm


bud2380

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Just now, Tom said:

The convective banding with this wave is going to produce some awesome radar returns.  Those lolipop totals coming off the higher rez models is a great signal to look for some intense banding.  I bet somebody on here see's 2'/hr rates.

That's what one of local Mets is thinking now.  Which I'm not going to get my hopes up but who knows maybe the hrrr is on to something.

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The thing about these HRRR runs is that they show 2"/hr rates for multiple hours in the best band. Not even our most notorious storms have managed that feat. I'd consider it a victory if we even got 1"/hr for that long.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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I also think 6" is a solid guess for Cedar Rapids.  The HRRR is awesome, but that kind of snowfall just doesn't happen here.  2-3"/hr for several hours is believable for New England, but not Iowa.

It's interesting, and sad, that the Euro ensemble mean has steadily dried up as the storm approaches.  One would typically expect the opposite.  The 6" area is pretty small now and even Cedar Rapids is down to 5".

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3k NAM stubbornly lifting the sleet up into Cedar Rapids for hours, really cutting the snow total.  Frankly, I think that is more likely than the HRRR's all snow.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I am going with 10” .

Every snowfall this year has outperformed including yesterday. Plenty of moisture, below freezing the past few days and that continues until Wednesday....I just washed my truck and off work with 2 bulging discs. It is all lining up.

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Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter


 


78.1"  Total snowfall


February Snowfall 32.5"


City salt usage  : 12,211 tons


Days of measurable snow  : 40

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LaCrosse just upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings.  6-10"

 

Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Clayton-
Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
Including the cities of Cresco, Decorah, Waukon, Charles City,
New Hampton, Oelwein, Elkader, Viroqua, Prairie Du Chien,
Richland Center, and Platteville
231 PM CST Mon Dec 28 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10
  inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.
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2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

LaCrosse just upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings.  6-10"

 


Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Clayton-
Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
Including the cities of Cresco, Decorah, Waukon, Charles City,
New Hampton, Oelwein, Elkader, Viroqua, Prairie Du Chien,
Richland Center, and Platteville
231 PM CST Mon Dec 28 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10
  inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

Wow and Charles City is directly north of me. I wonder if DMX bumps up their snow totals.

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Will definitely be interesting to see what the DVN does with their afternoon update. I obviously like where I sit, but there’s still some hesitation given the amount of time until it starts snowing. We’ve seen some pretty crazy last minute shifts before, so you just never know for sure until the flakes start flying!

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I think Bud mentioned it earlier... I'm thrilled that models have moved the start up to 1pm.  The snow should become heavy quickly, so a few hours of heavy snow during daylight would make me happy.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I think Bud mentioned it earlier... I'm thrilled that models have moved the start up to 1pm.  The snow should become heavy quickly, so a few hours of heavy snow during daylight would make me happy.

Congrats to you guys down there! Enjoy the daytime fun. These storms are tough enough to get, let alone during the day. 

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10 minutes ago, NH4NU said:

What are people's thoughts on these short range models (RAP, HRRR, SREF) amping up totals? Why the sig. variations? 

I don't trust HRRR and RAP till within 8-10 forecast hours.  Typically, both will be high at this time frame. Long Ways to go before both get in range with totals I will believe.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Have to watch and see for mby when and if that WF rolls on through my area during the Wednesday timeframe. Until it does, it is all snow for SEMI w a couple of inches looking likely now. Also, might even go over to freezing drizzle for a while when the changeover happens,  then, rain later in the day b4 it all tapers off. Interesting scenario for my vicinity shaping up. Looks like I will be adding some of the gold in the snow dept.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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6 minutes ago, Niko said:

Have to watch and see for mby when and if that WF rolls on through my area during the Wednesday timeframe. Until it does, it is all snow for SEMI w a couple of inches looking likely now. Also, might even go over to freezing drizzle for a while when the changeover happens,  then, rain later in the day b4 it all tapers off. Interesting scenario for my vicinity shaping up. Looks like I will be adding some of the gold in the snow dept.

I should easily double my total for the year.  First real WWA for the area.  forecast here is 2-6" with slow changeover possibly all snow/mix from GR north.  

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4 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I should easily double my total for the year.  First real WWA for the area.  forecast here is 2-6" with slow changeover possibly all snow/mix from GR north.  

Yep, the transition should be slow. Will have to keep an eye as well on the trailing WF and see how far north it gets.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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