james1976 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: Wow! And they are normally very conservative. Yeah idk if they are taking into account the short term models or what. We'll see what tonight's newscast shows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Wider view of the HRRR - not done yet for those east of the Mississippi 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: From very conservative KCCI in Des Moines. Whoa! I assume that is an in house model? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 The convective banding with this wave is going to produce some awesome radar returns. Those lolipop totals coming off the higher rez models is a great signal to look for some intense banding. I bet somebody on here see's 2'/hr rates. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 I'm gonna be pissed if 30 miles south of me gets 6" more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, Tom said: The convective banding with this wave is going to produce some awesome radar returns. Those lolipop totals coming off the higher rez models is a great signal to look for some intense banding. I bet somebody on here see's 2'/hr rates. That's what one of local Mets is thinking now. Which I'm not going to get my hopes up but who knows maybe the hrrr is on to something. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 The thing about these HRRR runs is that they show 2"/hr rates for multiple hours in the best band. Not even our most notorious storms have managed that feat. I'd consider it a victory if we even got 1"/hr for that long. 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, james1976 said: I'm gonna be pissed if 30 miles south of me gets 6" more You and me both man! I've had it the other way tho too where Aplington gets walloped and I get jack in W'loo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Whoa! I assume that is an in house model? Iam sure it is Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 18z nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 I also think 6" is a solid guess for Cedar Rapids. The HRRR is awesome, but that kind of snowfall just doesn't happen here. 2-3"/hr for several hours is believable for New England, but not Iowa. It's interesting, and sad, that the Euro ensemble mean has steadily dried up as the storm approaches. One would typically expect the opposite. The 6" area is pretty small now and even Cedar Rapids is down to 5". 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Massive shift south on the NAM, LOL. This is why we know not to trust it. It does this ALL the time. Never gets its act together until within 36 hours, and even then sometimes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: Massive shift south on the NAM, LOL. This is why we know not to trust it. It does this ALL the time. Never gets its act together until within 36 hours, and even then sometimes. Wow NAM now looks like the Canadian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Fairly thin DGZ isn't doing much to help me out. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Sref such a wide range here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 18z NAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 3k NAM, the changeover to ice south of CR is much quicker than on the HRRR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 3k NAM stubbornly lifting the sleet up into Cedar Rapids for hours, really cutting the snow total. Frankly, I think that is more likely than the HRRR's all snow. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 I am going with 10” . Every snowfall this year has outperformed including yesterday. Plenty of moisture, below freezing the past few days and that continues until Wednesday....I just washed my truck and off work with 2 bulging discs. It is all lining up. 2 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Southwest Nebraska as of 2:24 pm from the 511 Nebraska app. 3 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 The situations like this always do worry me. Hoping DBQ is far enough north that they can’t avoid most / all of it if it does surge further north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Keep the mix south of 20. Thanks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 You have to like your location if you are in Dubuque. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 LaCrosse just upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings. 6-10" Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Clayton- Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant- Including the cities of Cresco, Decorah, Waukon, Charles City, New Hampton, Oelwein, Elkader, Viroqua, Prairie Du Chien, Richland Center, and Platteville 231 PM CST Mon Dec 28 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: LaCrosse just upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings. 6-10" Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Clayton- Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant- Including the cities of Cresco, Decorah, Waukon, Charles City, New Hampton, Oelwein, Elkader, Viroqua, Prairie Du Chien, Richland Center, and Platteville 231 PM CST Mon Dec 28 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Wow and Charles City is directly north of me. I wonder if DMX bumps up their snow totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Will definitely be interesting to see what the DVN does with their afternoon update. I obviously like where I sit, but there’s still some hesitation given the amount of time until it starts snowing. We’ve seen some pretty crazy last minute shifts before, so you just never know for sure until the flakes start flying! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 If ARX went to 6-10" then DVN has to as well. At minimum for CR to DBQ line. I could see 6-10" on that line and 5-9" down to Iowa City. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 I think Bud mentioned it earlier... I'm thrilled that models have moved the start up to 1pm. The snow should become heavy quickly, so a few hours of heavy snow during daylight would make me happy. 6 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 What are people's thoughts on these short range models (RAP, HRRR, SREF) amping up totals? Why the sig. variations? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: I think Bud mentioned it earlier... I'm thrilled that models have moved the start up to 1pm. The snow should become heavy quickly, so a few hours of heavy snow during daylight would make me happy. Congrats to you guys down there! Enjoy the daytime fun. These storms are tough enough to get, let alone during the day. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, NH4NU said: What are people's thoughts on these short range models (RAP, HRRR, SREF) amping up totals? Why the sig. variations? I don't trust HRRR and RAP till within 8-10 forecast hours. Typically, both will be high at this time frame. Long Ways to go before both get in range with totals I will believe. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 It does seem the short range models are often a little too juiced. Though I’d rather them have it too juiced than struggling for moisture. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Have to watch and see for mby when and if that WF rolls on through my area during the Wednesday timeframe. Until it does, it is all snow for SEMI w a couple of inches looking likely now. Also, might even go over to freezing drizzle for a while when the changeover happens, then, rain later in the day b4 it all tapers off. Interesting scenario for my vicinity shaping up. Looks like I will be adding some of the gold in the snow dept. 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 DVN going with 6-9". Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 For what it's worth, this is the first time in 6 RDPS runs that it has made significant adjustments. Oddly enough this time (18z) it has cut amounts nearly in half for northeast Nebraska and instead focuses more along I-80. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Hawkeye said: DVN going with 6-9". Always a nice amount. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 18z RDPS stays south and heavy. It really has been this same look for many runs in a row. Let’s see if it ends up being correct or is embarrassingly too high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, Niko said: Have to watch and see for mby when and if that WF rolls on through my area during the Wednesday timeframe. Until it does, it is all snow for SEMI w a couple of inches looking likely now. Also, might even go over to freezing drizzle for a while when the changeover happens, then, rain later in the day b4 it all tapers off. Interesting scenario for my vicinity shaping up. Looks like I will be adding some of the gold in the snow dept. I should easily double my total for the year. First real WWA for the area. forecast here is 2-6" with slow changeover possibly all snow/mix from GR north. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Stacsh said: I should easily double my total for the year. First real WWA for the area. forecast here is 2-6" with slow changeover possibly all snow/mix from GR north. Yep, the transition should be slow. Will have to keep an eye as well on the trailing WF and see how far north it gets. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 DVN updated to 6-12”. Hopeful! 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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