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December 29th - 30th Snowstorm


bud2380

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Okay I am super confused. They just added Cass and Otoe counties into Winter Storm Warnings. This does not include Lancaster or Douglas/Omaha. They also included several counties in SW Iowa. They must be favoring the more southern solutions? 

OAX: for 4-7" and Wind gust over 35mph

 

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3 minutes ago, NH4NU said:

Okay I am super confused. They just added Cass and Otoe counties into Winter Storm Warnings. This does not include Lancaster or Douglas/Omaha. They also included several counties in SW Iowa. They must be favoring the more southern solutions? 

 

That's weird. I thought it might be the higher potential for ice on top of snow but then the WSW is saying 4-7" vs. 3-5" for the advisory.

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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2 minutes ago, NH4NU said:

Okay I am super confused. They just added Cass and Otoe counties into Winter Storm Warnings. This does not include Lancaster or Douglas/Omaha. They also included several counties in SW Iowa. They must be favoring the more southern solutions? 

 

My guess is that they may add us but knowing OAX probably will wait until tomorrow morning at 5 am. Lol they are terrible for that. They are probably basing it on the serf plumes, and short range models.

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Just now, Stormhunter87 said:

My guess is that they may add us but knowing OAX probably will wait until tomorrow morning at 5 am. Lol they are terrible for that. They are probably basing it on the serf plumes, and short range models.

Crazy that I am agreeing with this but that is right where my mind went in that they are playing it safe... I could easily have seen Sarpy, Douglas, Saunders, and or Washington go before Cass and Otoe.. 

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5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GFS switched back to way warm.

 

 

The para is still cold and has a nice 8-10" band through CR/IC. The op GFS is alone with it's solution of ZR/IP through hwy 20.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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6 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

Not that it necessarily correlates to this storm, but the GFS struggled with the thermos on the last big storm, no?

Yes, it really did.  It showed 1/2" of snow for here and many locations due to poor handling of the thermal profiles in eastern Iowa and we got 4-5".

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1 minute ago, Stormhunter87 said:

Yeah based on OAX forecast discussion they will be keeping Omaha metro out of the warning. They feel like the warm air will get in a win out for totals. They are basically riding gfs/nam solution.

I would too after all the busted storms similar to these in the past! 

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This HRRR run is more realistic with snow totals.  The precip clears a bit earlier and ends with a mix, too.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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