gabel23 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 The Euro is a bit to the northwest. Areas along and north of the platte river should do fine with this run. Man this is gonna be one heck of a battle. The one agreement with the models...the gulf will be wide open so we should see plenty of moisture in one form or the other. Gonna ride with the Euro until it proves me wrong. It's done really well for me so far this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Now that the Euro is going north of me I’m more worried. Guess it’s a good thing we’re still 4-5 days away 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 WPC's early call today. Hey, at least SMI has graduated from pure rainer status for the 1st time this "winter". 2 1 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 EPS mean with a nice nudge south 2 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 00z Euro...gearing up for a MSP special??? 00z GEFS have shifted much farther NW now...6" mean now creeping every so closer towards @FAR_Weather 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Something I have noticed off the EPS snow mean is that it has is showing signs of flattening the snow shield over the GL's region. The 6" snow mean doesn't cut up as much...subtle changes, could be a trend or not...I'm sure there will be more shifts in the coming days. For comparison, here was the 00z from yesterday vs tonight's... Yesterday... Tonight's run... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 3 hours ago, Tom said: 00z Euro...gearing up for a MSP special??? 00z GEFS have shifted much farther NW now...6" mean now creeping every so closer towards @FAR_Weather Even if this ends up shifting a bit, which it probably will, that’s a nice big swath to work with! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Great write up from DVN 2 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Latest gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 6z ICON is back to the front end thump for eastern Iowa. And thump she does. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Kind of like where I sit. This comes ashore Sunday I believe? Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 6z Euro Control with a southern sag 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 12z ICON trying to get me excited. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 12z ICON develops a secondary low along the front. This fits the LRC, now I can hope it trends colder. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FAR_Weather Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Move farther North! Farther! Farther! Quote Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21 Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26) Enhanced Risks: 0 Moderate Risks: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26) Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7) Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6" Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Merry Christmas!!! Just nice to see a big snow shield for a change! Hope it stays that way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 GFS is gonna be north of 6z most likely Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Gfs looks like a soaker for most of Iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 GFS still north. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Nothing like a 8-10 inch thump followed by rain and mid 30’s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Love me a good Christmas time rain storm around here. Been the normal here for a few years now. Our true winter doesn’t start until January anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Is it too early to wave the white flag? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 My Brookings to DLH call might be to far SE. Aberdeen to Thunder Bay? Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Which one blinks first...GFS or the King? I like seeing a consistent MN smash job but still way too early. These are pure guesses until sampled. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 NWS is calling the GFS faster and further north solution “suspect”. So let’s see what the other models say. And again, we aren’t even within NAM range yet. So this is still quite a ways out to pinpoint any specifics. 2 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 The last couple runs of the GFS have slowed, but it's still north. 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 I was encouraged by last nights UK. The SLP going into Wisconsin seemed to be a kiss of death but it had the snow band further south anyways. Hopefully a trend. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Is this not showing a good hit for Iowa? What am i seeing wrong? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 GEM still way south and even brings snow into IL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 minute ago, james1976 said: Is this not showing a good hit for Iowa? What am i seeing wrong? pretty much most of that is sleet/freezing rain. Part of Iowa gets over .5-.75 fzr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 CMC showing a secondary low pressure riding up the front much like the ICON. If this were to verify and strengthen it would greatly impact accumulations from SW. MO up through eastern Iowa. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 GEM brings 10-20+ into IA/IL/WI. Snows for over 36-48 hours. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, james1976 said: Is this not showing a good hit for Iowa? What am i seeing wrong? Tropical Tidbits is horrible for snowfall maps bc of sleet/freezing rain issues. Here’s a better map Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 The Canadian would be awesome. I just don't buy it without support from other models. 2 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 I got it. Thanks for the heads up. Hopefully the GFS is NOT up to something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 12z CMC 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Cmc actually stayed steady from 00Z. Love to believe, but the only good thing to come from Canuck Land is hockey and 80's music. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 CMC isn't perfect but it keeps me in the game, so there's that. 2 Quote 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 UK looks further south based on SLP track per meteocentre. But the low is also weaker. Only 1008mb in far SE Kansas. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Canadian kuchera 3 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 UK Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Parallel GFS Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Looks like the trend has been a weakening overall, but on the Nebraska end especially. 12z GEFS for reference. Still a decent mean for the eastern half of the state. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" Average: 25.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 The GFSv16, UK, and Canadian are all very similar. The regular GFS is nowhere near. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Wow, some big changes. The difference with the UK is the northern stream energy. Other models dive the northern energy down behind the southern energy, which lifts the southern energy on a nw track. The new UK dives the northern energy ahead of the southern energy, so there is a farther southeast initial surge of moisture and there is no wrapped-up storm that follows. 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FAR_Weather Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Craig? 5 Quote Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21 Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26) Enhanced Risks: 0 Moderate Risks: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26) Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7) Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6" Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Craig? Where did you find this? Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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