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December 29th - 30th Snowstorm


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The Euro is a bit to the northwest. Areas along and north of the platte river should do fine with this run. Man this is gonna be one heck of a battle. The one agreement with the models...the gulf will be wide open so we should see plenty of moisture in one form or the other. Gonna ride with the Euro until it proves me wrong. It's done really well for me so far this year.

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2" hour rates at DSM!! KDSM 291854Z 10009KT 1/8SM R31/1400V1600FT SN FZFG VV004 M05/M07 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 PRESFR SLP217 SNINCR 2/3 P0019 T10501067

Doesn’t get much more spread the wealth in the Midwest. 

7" here

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WPC's early call today. Hey, at least SMI has graduated from pure rainer status for the 1st time this "winter".

 

20201224 CPC hazards_d3_7_contours.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Something I have noticed off the EPS snow mean is that it has is showing signs of flattening the snow shield over the GL's region.  The 6" snow mean doesn't cut up as much...subtle changes, could be a trend or not...I'm sure there will be more shifts in the coming days.

For comparison, here was the 00z from yesterday vs tonight's...

Yesterday...

1.png

 

Tonight's run...

2.png

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Move farther North! Farther! Farther!

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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NWS is calling the GFS faster and further north solution “suspect”. So let’s see what the other models say. And again, we aren’t even within NAM range yet. So this is still quite a ways out to pinpoint any specifics. 

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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The last couple runs of the GFS have slowed, but it's still north.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Canadian would be awesome.  I just don't buy it without support from other models.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Cmc actually stayed steady from 00Z. Love to believe, but the only good thing to come from Canuck Land is hockey and 80's music.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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CMC isn't perfect but it keeps me in the game, so there's that.

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
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Canadian kuchera

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looks like the trend has been a weakening overall, but on the Nebraska end especially. 12z GEFS for reference. Still a decent mean for the eastern half of the state. 

1609426800-q1bnXKShz50.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Wow, some big changes.  The difference with the UK is the northern stream energy.  Other models dive the northern energy down behind the southern energy, which lifts the southern energy on a nw track.  The new UK dives the northern energy ahead of the southern energy, so there is a farther southeast initial surge of moisture and there is no wrapped-up storm that follows.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Craig?

FB_IMG_1608918485786.jpg

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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