December 29th - 30th Snowstorm

[Hawkeye]

ICON now has the southern wave holding back and cutting north for a solid eastern Iowa snow.

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

ICON now has the southern wave holding back and cutting north for a solid eastern Iowa snow.

CMC does this as well.  0z ICON

[Hawkeye]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

CMC does this as well. 

Yeah, the two are carbon copies of each other.  The southern wave really wraps up and slowly cuts to the lake, long-duration snow for my area.  I'd hate to have to get a bunch of rain/sleet from wave 1, but this would be nice.

[CentralNebWeather]

RGEM to 84 hours. Will be interesting to see where this goes in later runs. 

 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

Yeah, the two are carbon copies of each other.  The southern wave really wraps up and slowly cuts to the lake, long-duration snow for my area.

Does ok down here, some is better than none.  I think the Euro will head this direction soon, it really slowed down the storm on the 18z run and given teleconnections this makes more since than the GFS.

[Money]

Icon gets the secondary low down to 980 in eastern WI 

[snowstorm83]

GFS still eating glue, or the euro depending on how this goes

[bud2380]

No major change on the GFS in terms of the further north solution. 

[james1976]

GFS so far north and weaker and faster. I got a bad feeling.

[james1976]

Idc what anyone says. Until the GFS budges I'm not feeling great about this.

[Jaycee]

I’m feeling pretty comfortable here in southeastern MN. This could still be nothing for all I know though! GFS definitely looks weaker too, which usually leads to a trend of weaker overall I feel like but who knows. This is still a ways away. I feel for my friends in Chicago though :(( there hasn’t been anything but flurries in the city so far this year it’s so sad!

[Hawkeye]

Just now, james1976 said:

Idc what anyone says. Until the GFS budges I'm not feeling great about this.

Nothing to like about the GFS for this area.

[james1976]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Nothing to like about the GFS for this area.

I know or for much of Iowa. It sucks

[bud2380]

Not sure what’s more disappointing. Tonight’s models so far. Or Iowa blowing a 7 point lead with 40 seconds left against Minnesota tonight 

[Hawkeye]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Not sure what’s more disappointing. Tonight’s models so far. Or Iowa blowing a 7 point lead with 40 seconds left against Minnesota tonight 

The game.  Very bad loss.

[Money]

GEM looks similar to 12z so far 

[bud2380]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The game.  Very bad loss.

I agree. It was horrendous. Inexcusable. 
 

also. Canadian is holding firm 

[Money]

Looks like gem is gonna have the secondary low again 

[james1976]

My Lakers won so I'm happy about that haha.

Ok....back to the storm

[Hawkeye]

There's quite a bit of energy at the base of the trough on the Canadian, so let's see if it can wrap up and cut like the 12z run did.

Update:  The base energy digs much farther south this run, probably too far south for Iowa.

[Minny_Weather]

Idk man... I'm frustrated cuz the US is getting destroyed by Russia in the WJC.

[Money]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

There's quite a bit of energy at the base of the trough on the Canadian, so let's see if it can wrap up and cut like the 12z run did.

Update:  The base energy digs much farther south this run, probably too far south for Iowa.

It hammers eastern Iowa.

Gets it down to 985 or so 

[bud2380]

Canadian remains a dream come true for Iowa city and surrounding areas. It’s been very consistent. If that means anything. 

[Hawkeye]

Euro and GFS are putting all their eggs in the first wave while the ICON and GDPS are going for the second.  The UK doesn't have any focused low, just a good initial surge of moisture before everything is swept eastward.

[Hawkeye]

Canadian is focusing the big second low a bit farther east than last run.

[Money]

Gem has widespread 15+ amounts in WI and 10+ in IA/IL

[Clinton]

CMC with near blizzard conditions for the Great Lakes.

[Clinton]

0z CMC

 

[Money]

Ukie pretty much has no system at all. 

[Hawkeye]

The Canadian and Euro couldn't be much more different with the northern wave.  The Euro has a bowling ball upper low diving southeast into the upper midwest, which spins up a significant northern surface low that is the whole ball game.  The Canadian has weak action up north, nothing like the Euro.

[clintbeed1993]

The models were in much better agreement 10 days out than they are now.  They're struggling. Euro is the only one that has still looked the same as it did earlier this week.  Not sure why people are putting so much stock in the GFS.

[Hawkeye]

4 minutes ago, Money said:

Ukie pretty much has no system at all. 

Once again, the UK has the northern wave ahead of the southern wave, which prevents any kind of big storm up north.  At 144 hours, it finally tries to wrap up the southern wave near New Orleans.

[Clinton]

GFS ensembles picking up on secondary low, has is further SE.  0z GFS Mean

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Jaycee said:

I’m feeling pretty comfortable here in southeastern MN. This could still be nothing for all I know though! GFS definitely looks weaker too, which usually leads to a trend of weaker overall I feel like but who knows. This is still a ways away. I feel for my friends in Chicago though :(( there hasn’t been anything but flurries in the city so far this year it’s so sad!

I promise if there's one person here who understands and fully sympathizes, I'd say it would be me. Was almost like my area specifically was cursed or something for 5 years. Most snowless 5 yr stretch in my region's observations going to 1898.

I can't name a year where I've recorded more snow than Chicago by December 25th. I hope they get some snow to cheer folks up. I get depressed in winter down here, but I couldn't do it without snow up there. Too cold all the time to be enjoyable without the good stuff.

[Hawkeye]

Big difference in wave alignment between the UK and Euro at 500 mb.  Something halfway between the Euro and UK would probably be best for my area.

[bud2380]

[OKwx2k4]

35 minutes ago, Clinton said:

GFS ensembles picking up on secondary low, has is further SE.  0z GFS Mean

Keeps trying to get that southern side going. Going to make me check every day for 5 days now isn't it? Lol. 

In case anyone wonders, I have no sadness when I expect to get shafted on snow for 10-20 days and I get "surprise" snow that I never expected. That's called winning no matter what. I'll be wrong if that's what it takes to get snow. Lol.

[The Snowman]

Parallel GFS absolutely refusing to give snow to that lake in eastern Wisconsin... 

[The Snowman]

12z Parallel ECMWF, by the way - more or less the same as its operational counterpart. 

As an Omaha resident you can imagine why I'm posting this. 

[Stormhunter87]

My guidance would be the gfs because of no northern snow pack to make sure the cold air in place. But so far this season the gfs has been the sniffer and euro pans out well. Is this in range of landfall yet? I won't count it out unless the NAM has a better idea. NAM is and will be off on the event but it's great on picking up thermals.