December 29th - 30th Snowstorm

[The Snowman]

0z ECMWF going to come in nice for eastern Nebraska again it appears

 

Thermals are a bit milder but still appears okay for wet snow... maybe....

[The Snowman]

0z ECMWF through Hour 120

[Hawkeye]

The Euro continues to be very robust with a northern stream bowling ball diving south into the trough.  There are definitely changes from run to run at 500 mb (this run the southern energy is slower and the northern wave digs farther sw), but the overall result is the same.

[Hawkeye]

Euro has added a second wave.

[james1976]

That is a massive 6+ snow shield. Wow

[clintbeed1993]

https://www.mlive.com/weather/2020/06/see-for-yourself-why-meteorologists-prefer-the-european-model-over-the-us-model.html   In case you needed another reminder

[The Snowman]

0z ECMWF EPS, more or less merely expands the 6" shield and bolsters totals a bit

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Stormhunter87 said:

My guidance would be the gfs because of no northern snow pack to make sure the cold air in place. But so far this season the gfs has been the sniffer and euro pans out well. Is this in range of landfall yet? I won't count it out unless the NAM has a better idea. NAM is and will be off on the event but it's great on picking up thermals.

The energy wont' be near landfall till about Monday morning when it comes onshore over Cali.  Right now, its in a very sparse region where data is being collected.  Probably whey we are seeing varying model runs per each global model.  Pick and choose which one you like at this point.  I'm expecting some even bigger shift or "ideas" from the models through the weekend.

[Tom]

00z Euro...expanded view...as @Hawkeyeand others have mentioned on here, some of the models are dialing in on a secondary low which has been an exhibit of how systems have formed this season.  There have been a handful of those that focused on the secondary piece or wave while others did not.  Although, it appears this particular storm should favor a development of the secondary low that rides up the frontal boundary up into the GL's region.  

With that being said, Euro showing some love for the Lower Lakes region...

 

 

00z EPS...

[Tom]

00z Euro Control seeing the same thing and focusing in on a secondary southern piece that phases in the GL's region...

1st piece lays down a significant swath...

 

2nd wave...

[Tom]

Hmmm, just looked at the 00z GEFS and they are picking up on a secondary significant SLP that spins up into the GL's region...

[bud2380]

DVN flat out stating the GFS is erroneous and has been thrown out. 

[Tom]

00z GEPS... it's seeing @Clinton and KC crew...

 

The Canadian's ensembles members don't even show a 1st lead wave scenario and are dialing in on a prominent southern energy.  

[bud2380]

There are a number of EPS members that look similar to the UK and Canadian. 

[clintbeed1993]

NWS Hastings had a much better discussion this morning. Acknowledging the huge potential with this system. Reading their hint hint at heavy snow potential makes me think they're discounting the GFS right now.  I agree with that. We'll be seeing shifts as this thing is sampled this weekend. EURO has been the most consistent and I'd go with it until it shows different.

[clintbeed1993]

"As mentioned yesterday,
this system seems to have a plenty of moisture to work with, both
at the low levels and mid/high levels with a potential stream of
Pacific moisture tagging along. Ensembles suggest anywhere from
2 to 4 times the normal amount of moisture will be available.
This is a 99th percentile moisture source...with the EC being
the highest...and appears to a be a potential key to this event
overall.

With such moisture, snow accumulations may be significant. WPC
has highlighted the northern half of the forecast area in the
30-80% likelihood of reaching winter storm criteria during the day
Tuesday (that is 6"+ of snow potentially). There is no doubt the
potential for a significant snow is on the table but "who gets
what" is not really determinable right now. It is probably
reasonable to say Nebraska has a better chance for more snow
than Kansas. Areas northeast of a line from Lexington to Hastings
to Geneva seem to be most favored at this point.

Confidence and impacts: I wouldn`t write all this without some
confidence this system will impact the NWS Hastings forecast. It
seems increasingly likely a good portion of the area will receive
as much or all of the normal December precipitation with this one
system, if not quite a bit more in some areas. Significant
amounts of snow seem likely too but its hard to pin a number on
that 72+ hours out. Impacts have the potential to be significant
Tuesday and Wednesday, and maybe even Thursday as winds continue
to filter out of the northwest behind the low."

[GDR]

[Minny_Weather]

Models are way too juiced right now, I think that will be fixed when the storm comes ashore. That also likely means a climo-driven shift North. Or maybe I'm just wishcasting.

[Money]

8 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Models are way too juiced right now, I think that will be fixed when the storm comes ashore. That also likely means a climo-driven shift North. Or maybe I'm just wishcasting.

This makes no sense. Why would less moisture mean more north? 

[bud2380]

I wish the NWS would be this blunt more often. And actually use their meteorological acumen to make these types of determinations instead of just regurgitating the models more often. This guy probably has forgotten more weather knowledge than I know, so I’ll go ahead and agree and ignore the GFS

[Clinton]

6z Euro mean and ensembles.  Secondary energy will be good for me and the lakes region.

[bud2380]

6z Euro at 90 hours, which is as far as I can go. 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

6z Euro at 90 hours, which is as far as I can go. 

Euro has the secondary energy bouncing around all over the place.  Here is the 6z EC.

[bud2380]

I know it’s a lot to ask, but if the euro would just drop 100 miles south, that would be fantastic. 
 

6z CMC also stays on track from previous runs. Only goes to 84 hours but it he depth of cold air remains along with further south track. 

[Minny_Weather]

30 minutes ago, Money said:

This makes no sense. Why would less moisture mean more north? 

Weaker system = less moisture sucked in, less moisture = less suppression. Keep in mind that everywhere South of Winnipeg has bare ground. Climo favors a North shift in that regard. Will it happen? I hope!

[bud2380]

Well finally be able to reference and post NAM solutions today. It won’t get through the storm but it will be far enough into it that it will be useful 

[bud2380]

NAM looking more like the GFS so far. 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z NAM

 

[Money]

Nam looks a lot like the Icon

[St Paul Storm]

Classic CO low track on that NAM. Looks good. That precip shield is impressive.

[Minny_Weather]

I'd be... Okay with NAM. Still doubt that this system will be that juiced.

[Money]

Icon looks like it’s coming in more north this run 

[Hawkeye]

ICON is going the wrong way... focusing on the northern energy, then digging the southern energy so far south it won't be a factor around here, kinda like the UK.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z RGEM through 84 hours. It is the 10:1 maps as Kuchera snowfall isn’t loading. 
 

[bud2380]

RGEM looks like it will be similar to the GEM

[bud2380]

GFS isn’t going to be any different.  Nothing significant anyways 

[Hawkeye]

I'm not optimistic about the southeast third of Iowa.

[bud2380]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm not optimistic about the southeast third of Iowa.

Me either. We have the Canadian and Uk on our side. I’m sure that will change soon enough. I have a heavy lean towards the Euro at this point. We can only hope the Euro wobbles far enough south to hit us with the heavy snow band. But it just doesn’t seem like it’s gonna happen here. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Not a great morning so far in the model runs for much of Nebraska, Southern Iowa, Missouri or Kansas. If Canadian isn’t good, we live or die with King Euro. 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro mean and ensembles.  Secondary energy will be good for me and the lakes region.

"Secondary energy will be good for me and the lakes region."

Not seeing much indication of that on these maps. Only a few have snow for SMI, and it's the usual 2", lol