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Regeneration of .. my projections main colder air mass focused ...


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.. It would appear, that with the most recent modifications made to the wider program facilitating the main forum here more as a whole, that my most recent projections submitted focusing on the broader movement together with distribution of cold / colder air mass (A seasonal distinction here.), .. have been "deleted" (permanently.) 
 
.. Fairly busy this past summer with a more extensive "garden" project, house maintenance, ect., .. I'd not backed my projections beginning from the middle of August. 
 
.. Herein below within this thread, if with somewhat less credibility where looking at each more academically, to serve as a review - if far more general, of what I had had posted submitted previously, the best I can hope with this idea, is to re-focus, re-imagine, re-write and post what I'd written and submitted, from mid-August forward.

This with and if of more incidental note here, my working from and employing a specific methodology that I have developed over time, making my efforts here below in this regard possible. 
.And with this idea, what I re-generate here being, for the most part, fairly similar to their originals, even at this later date. Hopefully, and for anyone interested in their merit, even value, for whatever reason, I'm thinking that with this effort, these re-generated projections can perhaps be compared with those that I've generated both, in the past, and that I intend to generated in the future, and that the accuracy those projections will work to enhance the general credibility of what I've suggested here above. ....
 
 
.. As I've in fact linked (referred.), just yesterday, to my "most" recent projection submitted colder air mass focused, I'll be starting with it. .From there on, I'll be working on others: .. not wholly sure, where regarding their order, .. just what that might be at this point. .@

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(... Posted originally on the 28th or so of Sept., re-generated here just below as accurately as possible. See post beginning this thread, above.)

 

.. With its having been receding daily and progressively more so (.. in general regression mode looked at more latitudinally.) since the 30th of Sept. or so, .. this while at the same time during this same general period, been moving for the most part steadily more slowly east daily apart from a brief period of days from the 6th through the 8th of Oct., ... 

 

.. Beginning on the 13th of Oct., main and more primary cold air mass from the northlooked at more broadly, across the board, fuller hemispheric scope, N. hemisphereshould start to move and spread daily more south, through the 27th of Oct. or so. 

 

This, while at the same time during this period where looked at more longitudinally, and where considering its more variable pace east, main cold air's being caused to move through at general transition from more slowed, to gradually more stepped up and assertive movement more eastward, this from the 13th through the 15th, and with an only generally more stepped up pace east from then through the 18th or 19th, before one more accentuated from the 19th through the 23rd October. This before cold is caused to slow its pace east daily, progressively more from that point more forward.

 

No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.

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Ah ha. !!  (.. For anyone following what I've said outlined and tacked in here above.) 

 

"God Bless me", as it were. ….

 

.. I still have a copy of my main projection looking at the start of Fall this year, … because I generated back in early July, toward the idea of working to show the general worth of what I submit more regularly. Here's that projection is in full, more verbatim. .. More specific timeframe Sept. 16th through 30th.

 

 

And, for fun. …. Generated on the 10th of July. 

 

.. On the 16th of Septemberfollowing a period of general regression of cold daily more northward, and so with this idea a better consolidation of more primary cold north forward from Sep. 3rd through to the 16th—main colder air mass looked at more broadly (fuller hemispheric scope, N. hem.) should begin to move and spread daily more southward through September 30th.*

 

This, with where otherwise considering its more variable more longitudinal movement and pace more eastward—and with its having been slowing its pace east daily from the 9th of Sep. forward—broader main colder air, also beginning on the 16th, being caused to move steadily each day more assertively east through the September 24th, before slowing steadily more daily, from that point forward through to also near to September 30th.  

 

.. This general combination of colder air's movement looked at together with distribution should lend more initially to an increasingly more zonal patterning through the 24th, before broader patterning then shifts gradually to one increasingly more meridional. …

 

* If certainly in line with what might be expected more generally at this season point, the general regression of cold north with it subsequent spread daily more south I've suggested, projected here above, is otherwise more associated with a more inner-seasonal cycle of expansion and retraction of cold moved through regularly.  

 

$ .. This along with the more basic "follow-up" that I'd done for and where considering it, using the main 0h initialization representations generated daily @ 12z, from the ECMWF. -@

 

http://www.proxigee.com/20140912-1002_12z_850-500hPa_t+000vt.gif

 

No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.

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  • 2 weeks later...

(.. the first of my projections submitted, since and post this regeneration / reconstruction effort. See initial post to this thread above.)
 
Earlier zulu on the 28th, colder air began its general regress, or recession daily more northward. 
 
.. With this, main cold should continue to recede north daily through the 9th of November. This, with at the same time where looked at otherwise more longitudinally, main colder air's being caused to from this point forward through to near the 3rd or 4th of Nov., continue its current more slowed and slowing pace more eastward, before moving through a short period of more stepped up pace east from then through the Nov. 6th, followed by another general period of slowing pace east. 
  
No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.

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