hlcater Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Snow? Ice? Could be significant for someone 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 12z Euro.. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 12z Euro control same as op for the most part. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 12z Euro mean 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Lot of people should have a snowcover after this week 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Haase at DVN is clearly a little excited for the new year's potential. Thursday night and Friday (New Years Day): Another potent storm system to impact portions of the Midwest, including the dvn cwa. GFS/ECMWF similar in tracking a Lower Mississippi Valley type cyclone from se TX to Lake MI. These are notorious for bringing copius moisture from the Gulf which would produce heavy, wet snow along with the potential for freezing rain (ice accumulations) and strong winds. This system has a lot going for it, strong low pressure, strong forcing and a deepening closed h5 low. Climatologically speaking these type cyclones can produce 8+ inches of snow and even thundersnows! However, this remains to be seen but if it holds true what a way to start the new year! 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 GFS looks like it's going to tick west again with the way it's a little faster to have the trough tilt negative Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, The Snowman said: GFS looks like it's going to tick west again with the way it's a little faster to have the trough tilt negative At first it does, but then it occludes and shears east before getting up here. Other models keep it more robust farther north. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 GFS a little stronger this round, same track through mby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Seems like the GFS has beefed up totals this run. @Tom gotta be getting close to ya. @OKwx2k4 better get that shovel back out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 18z parallel GFS just shifted back east and misses Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 18z parallel GFS just shifted back east and misses Iowa. Misses me to the east by about 20 miles. Good hit for Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 24hr GFS Mean doesn't quite get everything for everybody but comes close. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Think we will see a NW shift with this one at all? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 I’m hoping it misses me so I can enjoy my trip, or rather, have it occur a few days later! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 31 minutes ago, centralweather44 said: Think we will see a NW shift with this one at all? Absolutely on the table the ensembles are literally everywhere so any shift in any direction is possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Absolutely on the table the ensembles are literally everywhere so any shift in any direction is possible. If this system forms as advertised (not sure what I think about that yet) I think you might be in the right spot to cash in. I may be a bit too far west. Either way, we're overdue in our area so hopefully this system breaks the ice for better days to come...lol 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 27 minutes ago, mlgamer said: If this system forms as advertised (not sure what I think about that yet) I think you might be in the right spot to cash in. I may be a bit too far west. Either way, we're overdue in our area so hopefully this system breaks the ice for better days to come...lol I hope so too looks like the band of snow is going to be kind of narrow if it happens. I would like to see it expand a little bit and cover more real-estate and get the whole KC area on both sides of the state line a little snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 hours ago, Clinton said: 12z Euro mean I'll take an order of 04 to go pls. A couple others are nice as well. Who am I kidding. 2" of SLOP would be a victory here. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, jaster220 said: I'll take an order of 04 to go pls. A couple others are nice as well. Who am I kidding. 2" of SLOP would be a victory here. I'll take anything at this point. I haven't had any snow since October when I got an inch and a half some places nearby haven't had any snow accumulation yet in my area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: I hope so too looks like the band of snow is going to be kind of narrow if it happens. I would like to see it expand a little bit and cover more real-estate and get the whole KC area on both sides of the state line a little snow. I doubt that can happen with this unfortunately. Cold is just marginal as can be. Not conducive to explosive anything. More the opposite. This is one of those 2 cnty wide warning snow deals with sharp reductions either side. I'd love to be proven wrong, trust me. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 My office with a good detailed write up on basically all of next week. pattern then changes for Tuesday and Wednesday. A low pressure system will start approaching the area Tuesday morning, giving us a chance for widespread precipitation. Wintry precipitation is expected initially with cold air in place at the surface. We could see a little snow at first around sunrise if the column can saturate, otherwise, we likely won`t see precipitation at the surface until closer late morning Tuesday. By this time, there will be a warm nose along and south of HWY 36, resulting in a wintry mix at the surface, with freezing rain likely being the dominate precipitation type. For those north of HWY 36, the dominate precip type will be snow initially with a changeover to wintry mix in the afternoon. Most of our wintry accumulations with this storm system will occur Tuesday morning and afternoon. Ice accumulations up to 0.10 of an inch is possible east of I-35, with 0.10 to 0.15 of an inch of is expected west of I-35. Snow accumulations between a dusting to 1 inch are possible east of I-35, with 1 to 4 inches expected west of I-35. The highest amounts for both ice and snow will be in far northwest MO. As a result, slick roads are expected Tuesday and caution should be taken if traveling. Keep in mind, there is still some room for the timing of the switch from wintry precip to rain to change on Tuesday if the warm surface air is quicker or slower to arrive than it looks right now. An adjustment to the arrival of the warm surface air either way would affect wintry accumulations. Tuesday afternoon through the overnight hours, warm air advection will increase over the area as the surface low starts moving north through KS. This means the precipitation will transition from a wintry mix to all rain from the south to north. Moderate rain will be possible at times. The system will then start exiting our area on Wednesday morning. There is a chance we see the rain change back to a light wintry mix/snow as it moves out, but that will only occur if the cold air and moisture can overlap. If the cold air can catch up to the moisture on Wednesday, then we could see a little more snow accumulation, mainly east of I-35. Perhaps up to another inch of snow. We should see a brief break from precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday, but a second storm system looks to move in quickly Thursday night. Right now this system is tracking north from eastern TX into eastern MO. This puts most of our area into the favorable location for snow development. Therefore, more snow accumulation is possible Thursday night into Friday for our area. The track of this storm system will be important for who ends up seeing this snow and will be watched closely. && 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 18z Euro control Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 I guess getting a double-digit snow on Christmas Day causes one to have optimism on current said pattern. Must be the cause of a rather positive (wintry wx wise) tone to IWX's pm AFD: .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Dec 27 2020 ...Powerful Great Lakes/wrn OH Valley cyclone looms large late week... Longer term continues to hold great interest and great challenge in regard to energetic wave train over the epac and about to come on shore this aftn. Overall signal to noise spread has decreased some since yesterday yet surprising given complexity of perturbation heavy upstream flow. Of note is general trend for leading intense/deep srn stream wave to separate and remain unphased from nrn stream sw progged to deepen into/through the nrn lakes Wed as srn stream sw sharpens sigly through nrn Mexico. Good operational clustering/consensus aloft with this projection. On the other hand this turns quite uncertain late period per ensembles relegated to both following additional energetic srn following stream wave and degree of nrn stream flow influence (cold intrusion) that persists over the lakes ahead of newd ejecting sig srn stream cyclone out of the deep south. Nevertheless a very wet sys looks to track through the lakes/OH valley toward the New Years holiday. This presents potential ptype issues and resulting impactful winter wx at times late Wed-Fri and something to focus/hone in on in coming days. In the end, this sys will finally put an end to the lingering drought of 2020. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z Euro control Euro continues to put yby in the cross-hairs while depicting a complete washout around SMI. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Euro continues to put yby in the cross-hairs while depicting a complete washout around SMI. Ya it wants to ice me. I need an eastern shift! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 14 minutes ago, Clinton said: Ya it wants to ice me. I need an eastern shift! Confused. You're safely in that snow swath, no?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Confused. You're safely in that snow swath, no?? Right on the eastern edge, right above the 2.1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Clinton said: Right on the eastern edge, right above the 2.1 Euro's been over-amped garbage at this range all "winter". May well be the case again with this. Ofc, the downside is a weaker more progressive 2-4" swath. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 GFS is still crapping out as the low lifts into the lakes. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 GFS is east of the Euro. If they want to meet in the middle that would be great. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Parallel GFS 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 @Clintonlooks like the Canadian does you no favors with the 2nd storm as it goes farther east. Hopefully the King is your friend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 The Canadian has gone well southeast and weak. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, CentralNebWeather said: @Clintonlooks like the Canadian does you no favors with the 2nd storm as it goes farther east. Hopefully the King is your friend. got a map to share for michigan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, whatitdo said: got a map to share for michigan? Michigan gets nothing from the 00z Canadian. It gets icing up to the Ohio river and then the whole thing collapses. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) 31 minutes ago, whatitdo said: got a map to share for michigan? 28 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Michigan gets nothing from the 00z Canadian. It gets icing up to the Ohio river and then the whole thing collapses. As expected. Too warm. We suck in warm winters. 2 months til spring, pls Edited December 28, 2020 by jaster220 Reality setting in. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 This is the best UK run so far for northern areas. It hits southeastern Iowa pretty good. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Euro still quite a bit stronger and nw than other models. It has big snow down to Texas. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 I just don't buy the crazy Euro totals and NW solution. I wish but my gut is it goes SE and weaker as we get there. This first storm may have a say on the track of #2. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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