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New Year’s Hard Cutter


hlcater

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Just now, james1976 said:

I remember that very well. I think I had 1.5-1.75" of ice

There are still trees 14 years later that you can tell were damaged. They survived but look odd. I lost 2 huge trees from my backyard. We were off of school until the 3rd week of January. We went out and lived with my wife’s parents in the country as they had a tractor generator. Grocery stores were closed along with gas stations due to no electricity. You had to drive 30-45 miles to get gas and groceries, but the roads had over an inch of ice so you really didn’t want to drive. 

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8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I don't know what could change to make it colder, there is no artic air to draw from.

That is unfortunately a massive problem. Stay safe. I will probably call my brother in Shawnee tonight to potentially start preparing to have foods on hand and maybe getting ahold of a generator that you hope to never have to use. A big city like the KC metro would be devastated. I am thinking worst case scenario, but I’m also someone who tries to be prepared. 

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11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

This is looking like a devastating ice storm imo.

Yeah it is...you just have to hope the temp stays close to 32F as possible to minimize the damage. Ice storms are the one thing I think all winter weather enthusiasts hate.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Just now, Clinton said:

Up close look at ice in KC metro.  

1609696800-fzjPnPmJclY.png

My gosh. I would hope weather forecasters start educating the public of the potential without scaring them. Many in a city wouldn’t be able to cope if electricity would be out for extended periods as maybe those in rural areas could. 

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Just now, Clinton said:

Up close look at ice in KC metro.  

1609696800-fzjPnPmJclY.png

Looks like the air temps hover mostly around 30-31 during the event. Not trying to minimize the situation but temps in the 20s would be much worse...or like what@CentralNebWeather experienced. Hopefully this all changes for the better on future runs.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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4 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Looks like the air temps hover mostly around 30-31 during the event. Not trying to minimize the situation but temps in the 20s would be much worse...or like what@CentralNebWeather experienced. Hopefully this all changes for the better on future runs.

That is a better scenario if temps are closer to 32. 

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41 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Just need 50ish more miles west 

I like the look of being on the NW edge of the 2” mean. I just hope it’s not overcorrecting and ends up back to the SE. It’s funny that a couple days ago the Euro had Memphis in the snow zone, only about 650 miles SE of Lincoln! 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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TOP NWS is actually getting a bit excited about this system. I think the trend may end up more rain and mixed precip than snow...but what do I know...lol. Excerpt from TOP AFD:

Quote

New Year`s Eve into the day on Friday is trending toward the active
side as well weather wise - this time heavy snow could be in cards.
As a deepening upper low lifts into the area with the long wave
trough slow to move through, a TROWAL feature develops and extends
west into the area.  Still no amounts to officially mention as we
will take the tomorrows system one at time first.  Do expect that
amounts for Friday morning could be somewhat impressive.

 

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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10 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

TOP NWS is actually getting a bit excited about this system. I think the trend may end up more rain and mixed precip than snow...but what do I know...lol. Excerpt from TOP AFD:

 

Looks like the trend is in your favor. I think it's gonna be a rainfest here.

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36 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looks like the trend is in your favor. I think it's gonna be a rainfest here.

I think you and myself might get warm-edged out or iced over here. 

I love the moisture out of the gulf, as someone mentioned, but at the cost of getting rained out or apocalyptic ice, no thanks.

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23 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I think you and myself might get warm-edged out or iced over here. 

I love the moisture out of the gulf, as someone mentioned, but at the cost of getting rained out or apocalyptic ice, no thanks.

Looking at the 18z RGEM getting iced is a real possibility. Hoping for a colder trend cause I think the global models will trend back south and east. Ice is hard on livestock and isn't real good on me either lol.

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27 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looking at the 18z RGEM getting iced is a real possibility. Hoping for a colder trend cause I think the global models will trend back south and east. Ice is hard on livestock and isn't real good on me either lol.

Same here. Plus it took just shy of 11 yrs to recover from the tree destruction here because of the last major ice (2+ inch thickness) event we had here in the Ozarks. I hate ice.

It's trying to do a phase type thing like what happens over the bering sea, where one absorbs the other. If that will work out correctly, deeper cold and a farther SE option are fully on table still yet.

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20 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Same here. Plus it took just shy of 11 yrs to recover from the tree destruction here because of the last major ice (2+ inch thickness) event we had here in the Ozarks. I hate ice.

It's trying to do a phase type thing like what happens over the bering sea, where one absorbs the other. If that will work out correctly, deeper cold and a farther SE option are fully on table still yet.

18z Euro doing just what your talking about, still not cold enough for snow on the front end but very icy.

1609502400-NDAJpxKUw58.png

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28 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro doing just what your talking about, still not cold enough for snow on the front end but very icy.

1609502400-NDAJpxKUw58.png

Yep. It sucks, but the good news is that the euro can have a west bias, but you and I both need the suppression for about another 200 mi.

Still have a ways to go, but this is going to be crappy to track and put confidence in either way. Still have a full range of anywhere from epic disaster to plain rain we could see.

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