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New Year’s Hard Cutter


hlcater

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

0z GFS.  So it looks like we need a weaker low that will rap in less warm air.  Looks like that will be the only way to get a decent widespread snowfall.

1609578000-VhqEjfp5GTc.png

Clinton, 

I bet there is going to be spot that is just in the perfect spot to the northeast of where the low tracks that has the potential to see close to a foot of snow. It will be close enough to the low where it gets the brunt of the deformation zone but also far enough way that the temps will stay just below freezing at the surface and at 850 mb. 

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Based off the last 8 model runs, I think we can all say there a pretty good overall trend of the low tracking further east through central MO rather than south and east of STL like it was a few days ago. Most models are trending more in the direction of a freezing rain event, followed by a few inches of snow for the KC area with most of the snow staying west and north of KC. BUT, today being Tuesday now, I don't want to start seeing the solution I really like until Wednesday into Thursday. 

Those who have been tracking KC snows for years know you do not want to be in the bullseye 4 days out because you know by a day out it will have shifted 50 miles. Tomorrow and Wednesday will be fascinating to track.

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I feel like Des Moines is getting ahead of themselves with this:

Another significant winter storm may impact Iowa by New Years Day as
an upper low lifts north and will bring another surge of Gulf
moisture with it. This system may bring another band of moderate or
higher snowfall along with a wintry mix or period of icing. Won`t
get too specific with this system this morning with the current
ongoing situation to focus on plus these closed upper low system`s
tracks are difficult to nail down the exact path even 2 to 3 days
out. That said, this does look like another significant travel
impact system with headlines expected.
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20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z RGEM not so great.

1609502400-2jnLLf7PwC8.png

Amigo...which is your pick? Ice or rain w this one for yby.....😅

I can see this providing some snow for ya.....at least on the onset. Stay tuned!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Certainly not as impressive as earlier, even in the ice department, but it looks likely that the CR/IC area stays frozen and probably picks up a couple inches of snow in addition to whatever ice. 

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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The track of this storm truly will mean everything. Most models seem to have a decent amount of freezing rain and then changing over to snow; depending on where you live determines how much of what. There are certainly things we don't know but also things we have a good feel on.

Things we know: 

1) A wet storm will be tracking from Mexico, northward eventually tracking somewhere through Missouri and then falling apart. 

2) 1.0-1.5 QPF is likely for many areas to the west and northwest of the track of the low. 

3) A freezing rain component is almost certain as the storm will bring in a lot of warm air aloft. 

4) There will be a changeover to snow in areas west and northwest of the low with likely an 8-12 inches band of snow. 

Things we don't know

1) Exact track of the low.

2) Where the changeover to snow will occur and not occur. 

3) If it will bring enough warm for precip to change over to rain. 

 

Screen Shot 2020-12-29 at 11.34.55 AM.png

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6 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

The track of this storm truly will mean everything. Most models seem to have a decent amount of freezing rain and then changing over to snow; depending on where you live determines how much of what. There are certainly things we don't know but also things we have a good feel on.

Things we know: 

1) A wet storm will be tracking from Mexico, northward eventually tracking somewhere through Missouri and then falling apart. 

2) 1.0-1.5 QPF is likely for many areas to the west and northwest of the track of the low. 

3) A freezing rain component is almost certain as the storm will bring in a lot of warm air aloft. 

4) There will be a changeover to snow in areas west and northwest of the low with likely an 8-12 inches band of snow. 

Things we don't know

1) Exact track of the low.

2) Where the changeover to snow will occur and not occur. 

3) If it will bring enough warm for precip to change over to rain. 

 

Screen Shot 2020-12-29 at 11.34.55 AM.png

The 6z Euro looked imo to have an ideal track for my location, what was it lacking in order to produce snow?

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15 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

The Canadian Model should be the last model we all look at... it was too cold and was the worst model for the storm that is going on right now. Best models to look at GFS, Euro, GEFS, and the NAM. The Canadian always seems to be the outlier. 

Why?

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Nobody posted it but the 12z NAM is way NW, Omaha/Lincoln get 9-11" lmao. There's 24" totals showing up in SE NE since it includes the storm happening now. Long range NAM is about as reliable as the GFS at 200 hours though. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 minute ago, Niko said:

Why?

That's my personal opinion. A lot of meteorologists go back and forth with the favorite model being the GFS or EURO. The nam is more of a short term model but tends to be up there as well; it has not been very good this year. The GFS has been. The CMC just is not a very good model-- they vary based off of different physical equations they use and differences in initial conditions. 

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The Euro went to four runs per day several months ago.  The pay sites like Weatherbell and weathermodels.com have the 06z and 18z runs.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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You can see the 6/18z Euro on WxBell. I think it's been a thing for the past couple of years. But I do agree that the CMC is generally garbage. NAM is all over the place past 48 hours. GFS and Euro have both been pretty bad lately and take turns having their moments. I'm not a meteorologist though and this is based on observations in my area. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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A lot of meteorologists in the NWS, at least in STL look at the ensembles. I like looking at the GEFS plumes because it can generate a good portrayal of the spread of the models and give you a general range of what amounts to expect.

I did not know that about the EURO. I just get it off of pivotal weather and use weather.cod and tropical tidbits for other models. I am not a meteorologist either, but I am studying to be one by pursuing my master's degree in it!

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1 minute ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

That's my personal opinion. A lot of meteorologists go back and forth with the favorite model being the GFS or EURO. The nam is more of a short term model but tends to be up there as well; it has not been very good this year. The GFS has been. The CMC just is not a very good model-- they vary based off of different physical equations they use and differences in initial conditions. 

Ok

Personally, GFS has been showing a massive improvement as of lately and yes, it has surpass the king (EURO). Not sure how that happened, but it did, at least in my books. Nam can be a surprising model and that is why I don't discard it at all. It can wipe out other models (which has happened previously). CMC can be interesting to look at, typically, it just gives you ideas of what is/will be happening. Overall, models will be models and cannot be taken seriously, until the event nears (basically within a days timeframe)......again, this is my personal opinion.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 minute ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

A lot of meteorologists in the NWS, at least in STL look at the ensembles. I like looking at the GEFS plumes because it can generate a good portrayal of the spread of the models and give you a general range of what amounts to expect.

I did not know that about the EURO. I just get it off of pivotal weather and use weather.cod and tropical tidbits for other models. I am not a meteorologist either, but I am studying to be one by pursuing my master's degree in it!

Yeah I like to look at GEFS/EPS in the 2-6 day range for snowstorms. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Just now, Jack_GradStudent said:

Meaning it has been a lot colder than what the GFS and NAM were predicting and the CMC was more correct? 

Yeppers. Not the norm. But this time it was.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 minute ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

Meaning it has been a lot colder than what the GFS and NAM were predicting and the CMC was more correct? 

It was better with thermals than the GFS. GFS slowly corrected some towards then end, but at one point it had 40s and rain in Lincoln with rain up to SD. Lincoln has 6" of snow on the ground and counting right now. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro still an ice fest in mby

With these endless borderline thermals, slight deviations in track make all the difference in the world. Another downside to not having arctic air available to tap into. My sympathy to forecasters...😬

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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18 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

With these endless borderline thermals, slight deviations in track make all the difference in the world. Another downside to not having arctic air available to tap into. My sympathy to forecasters...😬

KC forecasters are going to have a hard time.  GFS v16 would be a nightmare for them.

sn10_acc.us_c.png

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