gimmesnow Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 I just want the rain to stay away. We have the potential to build a very nice base in SE WI with tonight's storm. I'd like to keep it, I feel like the last few years every snow we've gotten has been wiped out on a few days with warm and rain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 No major changes with the Euro Mean 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 OMA/LNK still riding the edge of the tightening 2" line. Doesnt help that I live on the north edge of town. I'm really just hoping for a couple inches, it would be really nice on top of the snow from today. It'll just slightly suck for me to arrive in town and just watch an existing snowpack slowly melt. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 If we can get a few inches out of this, I'll consider it a win. 3 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 20 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: If we can get a few inches out of this, I'll consider it a win. Me too. Any snow on top of snow within a week is a win anymore. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 To no one's surprise, NAM shifts 100 miles SE in one run. Looks good for KC, DSM, and eastern IA. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Latest NAM shifts about 50 miles to the east. Almost perfect track for KC. Has freezing rain move in early on the 1st, switch to rain in KC, then we get 8 hours or so of good snow especially on the northwest side of the city... this is very similar to the GFS. I am getting more of a feel what I think is going to happen with this... this is a good trend for snow! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said: Latest NAM shifts about 50 miles to the east. Almost perfect track for KC. Has freezing rain move in early on the 1st, switch to rain in KC, then we get 8 hours or so of good snow especially on the northwest side of the city... this is very similar to the GFS. I am getting more of a feel what I think is going to happen with this... this is a good trend for snow! Needs to go east another 60 miles!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 18z ICON trolling KC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 @mlgameryour area looking real good on today's model run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Is my new house finally going to get a snow in St Joe? This thing has the potential to drop a lot on somebody in the area..if only those thermals would play ball. Going to be nerve racking. We've been in a snow drought so we're due Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 28 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z ICON trolling KC Haha that's hilarious. I wouldn't pay any attention to that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 15 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said: Is my new house finally going to get a snow in St Joe? This thing has the potential to drop a lot on somebody in the area..if only those thermals would play ball. Going to be nerve racking. We've been in a snow drought so we're due I would put money that someone gets at least 6 inches of snow between St. Joe and KC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 14 minutes ago, Clinton said: @mlgameryour area looking real good on today's model run This looks to be one of the better setups we've had here in quite some time. Hope we can both get in on this without any freezing rain. Almost could deliver for you, me and @OKwx2k4 with a touch of magic on thermals and track. I know it's a long shot but that'd be quite an accomplishment! 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Hoping we can somehow reel this one in here in Chicago. Feels like it’s been too long since we’ve had a snowfall over 3”. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Latest GFS has a anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of freezing rain.. keeps most of the snow west and North of KC. Temps mostly stay in the 28-30. This could result in a half an inch of ICE. Usually ice storms are duration events, but this would not be the case. I have also noticed a bit of weakening trend... QPF ranges are 1-1.2 and not up to 1.5 like we were seeing earlier. Still very wet, but just something to note. We need this low to maintain its strength and track just a bit further south and east! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 18z RGEM has a perfect track, needs to be a little stronger. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 18z GFS mean has a little bump in totals 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 This 2nd storm looks like its trending colder for mby. Have to closely keep an eye on it. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 It has been the winter of Des Moines and Cedar Rapids so far, so it'll probably hit us again. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 ^ up to 22.3" officially at KDSM for the season. 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 18z Euro is weaker and a slight shift SE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 NWS KC Our next winter storm comes New Year`s Eve night through New Year`s Day. The low pressure continues to track through MO, putting our in a favorable area for winter weather. While confidence is high the system will move through MO/KS, there is still uncertainty in exact storm track and therefore precip type, amounts, and location. Right now, it looks like our entire area is in the path for both snow and ice accumulations that would cause widespread hazardous travel. Greater ice accumulations are expected in our eastern counties right now, with the greater snow accumulations expected in our western counties. It is still a little early to pin down exact amounts given the uncertainties that remain, but definitely keep checking back for updates and start considering to alter any travel plans. Timing-wise, precip should move in from the south after sunset New Year`s Eve night and will continue through about sunset on Friday. Af 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 NAM Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 Don't have much good mojo on this one. System will be weakening upon arrival and that should trend things E and SE. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Don't have much good mojo on this one. System will be weakening upon arrival and that should trend things E and SE. Not looking forward to getting iced. Congrats on the snow today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 The latest nam's track is pretty good for the kc area, but it seems the heaviest precip bands will be on the edges of the precip shield-- I feel like that is fairly common in these type of storms. We need the track to be just a bit stronger and further east and south, and that would put us in the best chance for 6+ inches of snow. It's interesting, though, the track at least. It jumps almost straight north into the northeast corner of OK and then starts making a sharper northeast turn into central Missouri-- this will interesting to track on Satellite as it happens. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSmokey Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 44 minutes ago, Clinton said: Not looking forward to getting iced. Congrats on the snow today. Just North of KC, in Buchanan County, 16K without power. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, KCSmokey said: Just North of KC, in Buchanan County, 16K without power. That stinks, I bet there will be many more come Friday afternoon. Hope things change but we are running out of time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 I'm thinking no show up this way although local mets and NWS is talking it up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 gfs- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: gfs- GFS isn't so bad gets me above freezing. If it's not going to snow I'll take regular rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 To be honest...I'm not sold on this storm yet. Lots of things could go wrong and I already see red flags in thermals, narrow snow band, track, strength, and speed of system issues hinted at in recent model runs. Wouldn't be surprised to end up with our standard mixed precip 1-3" wwa event. Hate to black pill, but I may have seen this movie before. It's starting to feel familiar. 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 With an extensive snowpack to the north you'd think this thing could tap into a bit more cold air. 1 inch of precip and only 4 inches of snow on the GFS. That is quite pitiful 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 This 2nd system is trending colder and more south. I am expecting changes in my forecast. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 0z CMC has big totals on the west side of KC also hits St. Joe hard. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z CMC has big totals on the west side of KC also hits St. Joe hard. Push that south a little pls. Btw: That looks close enough for yby to receive some decent snows. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 06 NAM (out to lunch IMO)-- no upper air soundings, but I do like the trend NW. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 5 hours ago, Jack_GradStudent said: The latest nam's track is pretty good for the kc area, but it seems the heaviest precip bands will be on the edges of the precip shield-- I feel like that is fairly common in these type of storms. We need the track to be just a bit stronger and further east and south, and that would put us in the best chance for 6+ inches of snow. It's interesting, though, the track at least. It jumps almost straight north into the northeast corner of OK and then starts making a sharper northeast turn into central Missouri-- this will interesting to track on Satellite as it happens. Going to be a unique and memorable storm if it pulls that off. (Track jump) One of the hardest cutters I've seen in a model. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2020 Report Share Posted December 30, 2020 Interesting, both the 00z UKIE/EURO have shifted SE in track and laying down a swath of SN from E KS/MO into Lower Lakes...most of the SN in N ILS WI/MI is from the recent storm...deduct the amount below from the second image... 00z Euro...less generous in IL/IN/S MI... 00z Canadian... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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