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New Year’s Hard Cutter


hlcater

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OMA/LNK still riding the edge of the tightening 2" line. Doesnt help that I live on the north edge of town. I'm really just hoping for a couple inches, it would be really nice on top of the snow from today. It'll just slightly suck for me to arrive in town and just watch an existing snowpack slowly melt. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Latest NAM shifts about 50 miles to the east. Almost perfect track for KC. Has freezing rain move in early on the 1st, switch to rain in KC, then we get 8 hours or so of good snow especially on the northwest side of the city... this is very similar to the GFS. I am getting more of a feel what I think is going to happen with this... this is a good trend for snow! 1316824368_ScreenShot2020-12-29at3_01_25PM.png.da132701bbd43c318e4c77cbd5a10abb.png

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3 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

Latest NAM shifts about 50 miles to the east. Almost perfect track for KC. Has freezing rain move in early on the 1st, switch to rain in KC, then we get 8 hours or so of good snow especially on the northwest side of the city... this is very similar to the GFS. I am getting more of a feel what I think is going to happen with this... this is a good trend for snow! 1316824368_ScreenShot2020-12-29at3_01_25PM.png.da132701bbd43c318e4c77cbd5a10abb.png

Needs to go east another 60 miles!!!

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15 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

Is my new house finally going to get a snow in St Joe? This thing has the potential to drop a lot on somebody in the area..if only those thermals would play ball.  Going to be nerve racking. We've been in a snow drought so we're due

I would put money that someone gets at least 6 inches of snow between St. Joe and KC 

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14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@mlgameryour area looking real good on today's model run

This looks to be one of the better setups we've had here in quite some time. Hope we can both get in on this without any freezing rain. Almost could deliver for you, me and @OKwx2k4 with a touch of magic on thermals and track. I know it's a long shot but that'd be quite an accomplishment! 😃

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Latest GFS has a anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of freezing rain.. keeps most of the snow west and North of KC. Temps mostly stay in the 28-30. This could result in a half an inch of ICE. Usually ice storms are duration events, but this would not be the case. 

I have also noticed a bit of weakening trend... QPF ranges are 1-1.2 and not up to 1.5 like we were seeing earlier. Still very wet, but just something to note. We need this low to maintain its strength and track just a bit further south and east! 

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This 2nd storm looks like its trending colder for mby. Have to closely keep an eye on it.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NWS KC

Our next winter storm comes New Year`s Eve night through New Year`s
Day. The low pressure continues to track through MO, putting our in
a favorable area for winter weather. While confidence is high the
system will move through MO/KS, there is still uncertainty in exact
storm track and therefore precip type, amounts, and location.
Right now, it looks like our entire area is in the path for both snow
and ice accumulations that would cause widespread hazardous
travel. Greater ice accumulations are expected in our eastern counties
right now, with the greater snow accumulations expected in our
western counties. It is still a little early to pin down exact
amounts given the uncertainties that remain, but definitely keep
checking back for updates and start considering to alter any
travel plans. Timing-wise, precip should move in from the south
after sunset New Year`s Eve night and will continue through about
sunset on Friday.

Af
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The latest nam's track is pretty good for the kc area, but it seems the heaviest precip bands will be on the edges of the precip shield-- I feel like that is fairly common in these type of storms. We need the track to be just a bit stronger and further east and south, and that would put us in the best chance for 6+ inches of snow. 

It's interesting, though, the track at least. It jumps almost straight north into the northeast corner of OK and then starts making a sharper northeast turn into central Missouri-- this will interesting to track on Satellite as it happens.  

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To be honest...I'm not sold on this storm yet. Lots of things could go wrong and I already see red flags in thermals, narrow snow band, track, strength, and speed of system issues hinted at in recent model runs. Wouldn't be surprised to end up with our standard mixed precip 1-3" wwa event. Hate to black pill, but I may have seen this movie before. It's starting to feel familiar.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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This 2nd system is trending colder and more south. I am expecting changes in my forecast.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z CMC has big totals on the west side of KC also hits St. Joe hard.

gem_asnow_ncus_16.png

Push that south a little pls. 👍

Btw: That looks close enough for yby to receive some decent snows.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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5 hours ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

The latest nam's track is pretty good for the kc area, but it seems the heaviest precip bands will be on the edges of the precip shield-- I feel like that is fairly common in these type of storms. We need the track to be just a bit stronger and further east and south, and that would put us in the best chance for 6+ inches of snow. 

It's interesting, though, the track at least. It jumps almost straight north into the northeast corner of OK and then starts making a sharper northeast turn into central Missouri-- this will interesting to track on Satellite as it happens.  

Going to be a unique and memorable storm if it pulls that off. (Track jump)

One of the hardest cutters I've seen in a model.

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Interesting, both the 00z UKIE/EURO have shifted SE in track and laying down a swath of SN from E KS/MO into Lower Lakes...most of the SN in N ILS WI/MI is from the recent storm...deduct the amount below from the second image...

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

00z Euro...less generous in IL/IN/S MI...

1.png

 

00z Canadian...

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

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