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New Year’s Hard Cutter


hlcater

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Are we getting good sampling with the energy diving fairly deep into Mexico right now?

 

Keeping a close eye on that secondary piece that is riding on the heels of the main ULL...looks like it drops a couple inches in MO and up this way.  Back to back days with snow falling???  #winning2021

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After looking at this morning's data I have a few thoughts (for the KC area): 

1) I think the majority of the metro (with the exception of maybe areas to the Southeast like Lee's Summit) will remain below freezing and we will see a freezing rain event, transitioning to sleet, and then snow. 

2) QPF's will increase as you move south and southeast from St. Joe. I think the GFS shows this potential well. 

1815519238_ScreenShot2020-12-30at1_04_30PM.png.6a50bada7b6155301b8ef6d6ba2adcff.png

3) Among the areas that remain below freezing for the entirety of the storm, the most likely areas for the most ice is to the south of the City. I think the GFS does a good job of portraying this potential as well. 

1525970017_ScreenShot2020-12-30at1_02_01PM.png.e8c2055795ce94bce51db3b60b11b094.png

4) The biggest question: When will the temperatures in the 800-900 mb layer go below freezing? 

1496058599_ScreenShot2020-12-30at1_09_26PM.thumb.png.957d6f2b742a46288752de7bfacc80a7.png

This is the 850 mb valid at 9 a.m. Areas in the blue outlined by the white line are below freezing. You can see this happening first south and west of the City. These are the areas that will characterized by the most snow. This detail is so huge and so tiny and that is why snow totals are going to be hard to predict. 

This is an odd storm, so odd things may happen. A couple of other notes:

- I'm noticing in the ensembles a trend of snow going back to freezing rain as the precip lightens up as it is moving away. 

- There is a snow pack in Iowa that could push the baroclinic zone further south. 

- This storm due to heavy precip rates and its strength could generate its own cold air. 

Final thoughts: 

Ice: 0.3-0.6 of freezing rain expected resulting in 0.1-0.3 inches of Ice-- up to a half inch of Ice south and east of KC

Snow: 1-4 inches of snow, potential for 6-8 inches of snow west and southwest of the City (Topeka, Emporia)

Would love to know what you guys think!

Jack 

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19 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

After looking at this morning's data I have a few thoughts (for the KC area): 

1) I think the majority of the metro (with the exception of maybe areas to the Southeast like Lee's Summit) will remain below freezing and we will see a freezing rain event, transitioning to sleet, and then snow. 

2) QPF's will increase as you move south and southeast from St. Joe. I think the GFS shows this potential well. 

1815519238_ScreenShot2020-12-30at1_04_30PM.png.6a50bada7b6155301b8ef6d6ba2adcff.png

3) Among the areas that remain below freezing for the entirety of the storm, the most likely areas for the most ice is to the south of the City. I think the GFS does a good job of portraying this potential as well. 

1525970017_ScreenShot2020-12-30at1_02_01PM.png.e8c2055795ce94bce51db3b60b11b094.png

4) The biggest question: When will the temperatures in the 800-900 mb layer go below freezing? 

1496058599_ScreenShot2020-12-30at1_09_26PM.thumb.png.957d6f2b742a46288752de7bfacc80a7.png

This is the 850 mb valid at 9 a.m. Areas in the blue outlined by the white line are below freezing. You can see this happening first south and west of the City. These are the areas that will characterized by the most snow. This detail is so huge and so tiny and that is why snow totals are going to be hard to predict. 

This is an odd storm, so odd things may happen. A couple of other notes:

- I'm noticing in the ensembles a trend of snow going back to freezing rain as the precip lightens up as it is moving away. 

- There is a snow pack in Iowa that could push the baroclinic zone further south. 

- This storm due to heavy precip rates and its strength could generate its own cold air. 

Final thoughts: 

Ice: 0.3-0.6 of freezing rain expected resulting in 0.1-0.3 inches of Ice-- up to a half inch of Ice south and east of KC

Snow: 1-4 inches of snow, potential for 6-8 inches of snow west and southwest of the City (Topeka, Emporia)

Would love to know what you guys think!

Jack 

Thank you very much for the breakdown, it was well thought out and you very well may be correct with your forecaTst.  The only thing I would say is that as of today I don't trust the GFS with thermals.  My hope is that it will be colder at the 800-900mb level.  My fear is that it won't be and it will be colder at the surface than what the GFS shows.  Hoping the snow pack to the north can throw me a bone.

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1 hour ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

After looking at this morning's data I have a few thoughts (for the KC area): 

1) I think the majority of the metro (with the exception of maybe areas to the Southeast like Lee's Summit) will remain below freezing and we will see a freezing rain event, transitioning to sleet, and then snow. 

2) QPF's will increase as you move south and southeast from St. Joe. I think the GFS shows this potential well. 

1815519238_ScreenShot2020-12-30at1_04_30PM.png.6a50bada7b6155301b8ef6d6ba2adcff.png

3) Among the areas that remain below freezing for the entirety of the storm, the most likely areas for the most ice is to the south of the City. I think the GFS does a good job of portraying this potential as well. 

1525970017_ScreenShot2020-12-30at1_02_01PM.png.e8c2055795ce94bce51db3b60b11b094.png

4) The biggest question: When will the temperatures in the 800-900 mb layer go below freezing? 

1496058599_ScreenShot2020-12-30at1_09_26PM.thumb.png.957d6f2b742a46288752de7bfacc80a7.png

This is the 850 mb valid at 9 a.m. Areas in the blue outlined by the white line are below freezing. You can see this happening first south and west of the City. These are the areas that will characterized by the most snow. This detail is so huge and so tiny and that is why snow totals are going to be hard to predict. 

This is an odd storm, so odd things may happen. A couple of other notes:

- I'm noticing in the ensembles a trend of snow going back to freezing rain as the precip lightens up as it is moving away. 

- There is a snow pack in Iowa that could push the baroclinic zone further south. 

- This storm due to heavy precip rates and its strength could generate its own cold air. 

Final thoughts: 

Ice: 0.3-0.6 of freezing rain expected resulting in 0.1-0.3 inches of Ice-- up to a half inch of Ice south and east of KC

Snow: 1-4 inches of snow, potential for 6-8 inches of snow west and southwest of the City (Topeka, Emporia)

Would love to know what you guys think!

Jack 

I’m in Lawrence so i think this storm will be perfect for me to get some of the heaviest snows. I also think the fresh snowpack just to the north will help in pulling in colder air than what the models are picking up on 

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GRR's take on the storm.  They feel models aren't handling it well? 

Forecast reasoning: Powerful upper low off the Pacific Northwest
will serve as an upstream kicker for the cutoff low currently over
northwest Mexico. This cutoff low features 500 mb heights that are
very rare in terms of how low they are at such a southern latitude.
There is some indication that models are not initializing this
feature well, perhaps due to a combination of the low`s highly
anomalous nature and sub-optimal sampling of the atmosphere over NW
Mexico (due to a relative lack of aircraft measurements and POES
swaths). All of this suggests we could see an especially compact and
intense upper PV max approaching our area on New Years Day.

With such strong and relatively localized dynamical forcing
possible, we could see a wide variety of precipitation types and
intensities unfolding New Years Day into evening. Deterministic
models have recently shown a slight run to run cooling trend at
lower levels. The character of warm air aloft is also far from
certain. This has great bearing on precipitation type and tends to
feature a lot of forecast sensitivity to begin with, and that is
before introducing any possible dynamical cooling effects we might
see with the upper PV max.
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4 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

GRR's take on the storm.  They feel models aren't handling it well? 


Forecast reasoning: Powerful upper low off the Pacific Northwest
will serve as an upstream kicker for the cutoff low currently over
northwest Mexico. This cutoff low features 500 mb heights that are
very rare in terms of how low they are at such a southern latitude.
There is some indication that models are not initializing this
feature well, perhaps due to a combination of the low`s highly
anomalous nature and sub-optimal sampling of the atmosphere over NW
Mexico (due to a relative lack of aircraft measurements and POES
swaths). All of this suggests we could see an especially compact and
intense upper PV max approaching our area on New Years Day.

With such strong and relatively localized dynamical forcing
possible, we could see a wide variety of precipitation types and
intensities unfolding New Years Day into evening. Deterministic
models have recently shown a slight run to run cooling trend at
lower levels. The character of warm air aloft is also far from
certain. This has great bearing on precipitation type and tends to
feature a lot of forecast sensitivity to begin with, and that is
before introducing any possible dynamical cooling effects we might
see with the upper PV max.

I wondered about sampling with the energy so deep in Mexico.  Seems I remember Lezak saying something about this with storms in the past that dug deep like this.

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22 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

GRR's take on the storm.  They feel models aren't handling it well? 


Forecast reasoning: Powerful upper low off the Pacific Northwest
will serve as an upstream kicker for the cutoff low currently over
northwest Mexico. This cutoff low features 500 mb heights that are
very rare in terms of how low they are at such a southern latitude.
There is some indication that models are not initializing this
feature well, perhaps due to a combination of the low`s highly
anomalous nature and sub-optimal sampling of the atmosphere over NW
Mexico (due to a relative lack of aircraft measurements and POES
swaths). All of this suggests we could see an especially compact and
intense upper PV max approaching our area on New Years Day.

With such strong and relatively localized dynamical forcing
possible, we could see a wide variety of precipitation types and
intensities unfolding New Years Day into evening. Deterministic
models have recently shown a slight run to run cooling trend at
lower levels. The character of warm air aloft is also far from
certain. This has great bearing on precipitation type and tends to
feature a lot of forecast sensitivity to begin with, and that is
before introducing any possible dynamical cooling effects we might
see with the upper PV max.

@jaster220 thoughts on this upcoming system? 

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My AFD

FXUS63 KEAX 302148
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
348 PM CST Wed Dec 30 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 347 PM CST WED DEC 30 2020

-The main concern this forecast period is for a high impact ice and
snow event for New years Eve Night into New Years Day. Travel
conditions are expected to be dangerous and power outages may be
possible particularly for areas along and south of a line from Macon
to the south KC Metro. As such we have a Winter Storm Watch in
effect from 9PM Thursday through 6PM Friday.

-The forecast changes with this forecast package have been slight
 but we have seen a slight shift to the south and east of the
 storm track. This would lend itself to a bit more snow over the
 northwestern portion of the forecast area and shift the swath of
 heavier ice accumulations slightly further south and east. In
 addition, the timing of this system has slowed slightly.

Today we have gotten a brief break to the Winter weather however,
temperatures remain cool with highs remaining below freezing along
and north of Highway 36 and in the mid 30s south of Highway 36. The
below normal temperatures have allowed for little to know melting
where significant ice accumulated on trees and other surfaces. This
may lead to further concerns with trees and powerlines coming down
in the upcoming snow/ice storm. Tonight high pressure will move into
the region dropping lows into the upper teens and 20s. Tomorrow,
high pressure will remain in control for the daytime hours keeping
conditions dry and cool with highs remaining in the 30s and again
perhaps limiting melting of existing ice on tree limbs and
powerlines.

Tomorrow night, a upper level low, currently residing in northern
Mexico will lift north across eastern Texas. A precipitation shield
will lift northward into the area. Several challenges exist as far
as p-type as well as potential ice accumulation as this system moves
north into the cold air. The first challenge will be surface
temperatures...current thinking is that surface temperatures will be
below freezing over the entire CWA with the exception of extreme
southern CWA which will hover right around freezing. The biggest
challenge resides in warm nose temperatures. The EC is the coldest
keeping the warm nose below freezing leading itself to more snow and
less ice. The GFS has a warm nose of 2C-4C providing a prolonged
period of freezing rain. The Hi-res solutions as well as the NAM are
middle of the road solutions providing for a greater mix of p-type.
Using a blended solution with a slight preference for the GFS yields
a swath of ice along and east of the I-35 corridor of a 0.10"-0.25"
with lesser amounts of ice west. There is the potential for a area
of ice accumulation greater than 0.25" from Macon to the southern KC
Metro. Due to uncertainty of where the heaviest band of ice will set
up has precluded an upgrade to warning at this although one will
most likely be needed across at least portion of the current watch
area. In addition, west of the I-35 corridor, precipitation may mix
for a while however thermal profiles here suggest more snow and less
ice. As such, less than 0.1" of ice is expected in this area with 2
to 4 inches of snow. With mostly freezing rain expected Thursday
night into Friday morning, a transition to ll snow is expected
Friday morning as the column cools below freezing. Friday, the upper
level system which has now become nearly stacked will ride the I-44
corridor finally shifting east of the area by Friday night. However,
also of concern is winds will pick up out of the NE to 10-15kts with
gusts to 25-30kts which aid in bringing down tree branches and power
lines in areas where significant ice accretes. Highs will remain in
the 30s Friday.

Saturday another upper level low develops in the base of the broad
upper level trough still remaining over the area. In a area of the
enhanced upper level jet over the eastern CWA models provide enough
force to produce light snow over areas east of Highway 65. Light
accumulations may be possible. Highs Saturday will only reach the
upper 20s to mid 30s. Conditions will quiet down after Saturday with
a much needed warning trend and thaw. This will occur as northwest
flow on Sunday relaxes and we enter a quasi zonal pattern early next
week. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will reach the upper 30s to upper
40s.

 

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Point of interest...Topeka mentioned the lack of upper air data in the AFD this afternoon and how it was making the forecast more uncertain:

"Again, the uncertainty comes with the upper air data - or
lack thereof - at this this time. The hope is this comes clear
after the 12Z data tomorrow which will be about 18hrs prior to
expected onset. Do expect that the watch will either be allowed to
be converted next cycle or the day cycle tomorrow with more
confidence overall in both amounts and location/duration."
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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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1 minute ago, mlgamer said:

Point of interest...Topeka mentioned the lack of upper air data in the AFD this afternoon and how it was making the forecast more uncertain:


"Again, the uncertainty comes with the upper air data - or
lack thereof - at this this time. The hope is this comes clear
after the 12Z data tomorrow which will be about 18hrs prior to
expected onset. Do expect that the watch will either be allowed to
be converted next cycle or the day cycle tomorrow with more
confidence overall in both amounts and location/duration."

Man if there is any kind of shift or change they won't have much time to get the word out.

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5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The HRR probably shouldn't be going out to 48hrs but it pounds us.  How did it perform earlier this week?

Very good. But I didn't look at much past 18-24 hours.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro looking snowier for many,
1609675200-UvLmjUdczWI.png

It sure does. Its taking that golden "Toledo" track amigo.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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anyone want raw #'s for 18Z Euro? go ahead and ask  (slow night at work) here's a few and I'll try and hit peeps locations-

MCI-

FRI 12Z 01-JAN  -1.8     2.8    1017      73      97    0.15     560     546    
FRI 18Z 01-JAN  -1.7    -0.4    1015      87      99    0.41     555     543    
SAT 00Z 02-JAN  -2.4    -1.2    1017      87      81    0.33     557     543    
SAT 06Z 02-JAN  -7.4    -0.3    1021      84      60    0.00     559     543

TOP

FRI 06Z 01-JAN  -1.7     2.9    1022      61       9    0.00     563     545    
FRI 12Z 01-JAN  -1.8     2.2    1017      72      95    0.07     559     545    
FRI 18Z 01-JAN  -2.1    -0.6    1016      86     100    0.42     555     542    
SAT 00Z 02-JAN  -2.5    -0.4    1018      78      87    0.19     558     543    
SAT 06Z 02-JAN  -7.6     0.2    1021      79      59    0.00     559     542 

ICT-

FRI 06Z 01-JAN   0.2     2.9    1018      54      68    0.00     560     546    
FRI 12Z 01-JAN  -1.2     0.6    1014      81      99    0.30     556     545    
FRI 18Z 01-JAN  -1.9    -1.4    1017      87      92    0.45     555     542    
SAT 00Z 02-JAN  -1.0    -0.1    1019      67      81    0.03     559     544    
SAT 06Z 02-JAN  -4.1    -0.1    1022      75      69    0.00     559     541 

RCM- (for Clinton) did I get the right location?

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: RCM    LAT=  38.78 LON=  -93.80 ELE=   797

                                            18Z DEC30
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
WED 18Z 30-DEC   0.9    -3.6    1023      67      11             556     538    
THU 00Z 31-DEC  -1.5    -3.5    1024      70       7             556     537    
THU 06Z 31-DEC  -5.4    -2.8    1026      84       8    0.00     557     537    
THU 12Z 31-DEC  -6.5    -1.8    1026      88       9    0.00     560     539    
THU 18Z 31-DEC   1.9    -0.1    1025      47      14    0.00     563     543    
FRI 00Z 01-JAN  -0.8     2.6    1023      62       8    0.00     564     546    
FRI 06Z 01-JAN  -1.7     3.6    1022      62      56    0.00     564     547    
FRI 12Z 01-JAN  -1.2     4.5    1016      87      99    0.55     560     548    
FRI 18Z 01-JAN   0.0    -0.9    1011      92      89    0.69     553     544    
SAT 00Z 02-JAN  -1.6    -3.2    1015      90      75    0.20     556     544    
SAT 06Z 02-JAN  -2.4    -1.6    1019      87      58    0.01     560     545    
SAT 12Z 02-JAN  -4.8    -1.7    1020      80      74    0.00     557     541 
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Getting better on the track, now let raise amounts.

I agree and approved by me 100%.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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STJ-

FRI 00Z 01-JAN  -2.2     1.9    1024      59      26    0.00     563     544    
FRI 06Z 01-JAN  -2.7     3.0    1023      62      11    0.00     563     545    
FRI 12Z 01-JAN  -2.3     2.8    1019      62      70    0.01     560     545    
FRI 18Z 01-JAN  -2.1     0.0    1016      73      99    0.17     556     543    
SAT 00Z 02-JAN  -2.9    -0.7    1018      78      90    0.23     556     542    
SAT 06Z 02-JAN  -6.9     0.5    1021      80      55    0.00     559     542   

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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ORD- ( can only go out 90 hours)

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: ORD    LAT=  41.98 LON=  -87.90 ELE=   673

                                            18Z DEC30
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
WED 18Z 30-DEC  -0.5    -4.1    1013      81      22             549     538    
THU 00Z 31-DEC  -2.5    -7.7    1017      80      11             545     531    
THU 06Z 31-DEC  -4.2    -5.5    1021      76      17    0.00     546     529    
THU 12Z 31-DEC  -9.6    -5.4    1026      85       5    0.00     550     530    
THU 18Z 31-DEC  -3.1    -4.1    1028      63       9    0.00     555     533    
FRI 00Z 01-JAN  -4.3    -1.4    1029      68      35    0.00     563     540    
FRI 06Z 01-JAN  -5.2    -0.4    1029      82      11    0.00     566     543    
FRI 12Z 01-JAN  -3.6     2.3    1027      85      19    0.00     565     544    
FRI 18Z 01-JAN   0.1     3.9    1019      77      98    0.00     562     546    
SAT 00Z 02-JAN   0.5     0.7    1013      91      74    0.24     557     546    
SAT 06Z 02-JAN   0.6    -1.1    1013      94      83    0.12     552     542    
SAT 12Z 02-JAN  -0.2     0.3    1017      92      32    0.02     558     545    
SAT 18Z 02-JAN   2.2     1.5    1018      82      38    0.00     558     544    
SUN 00Z 03-JAN   0.3    -0.2    1016      94      71    0.04     555     543    
SUN 06Z 03-JAN   0.5    -4.6    1013      99      94    0.08     548     538    
SUN 12Z 03-JAN  -0.1    -5.2    1010      97      93    0.17     544     536 

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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GRR

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: GRR    LAT=  42.88 LON=  -85.52 ELE=   804

                                            18Z DEC30
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
WED 18Z 30-DEC   2.7    -4.3    1009      96      66             548     541    
THU 00Z 31-DEC  -1.2   -10.2    1014      81      11             542     531    
THU 06Z 31-DEC  -2.7   -12.5    1018      75      27    0.00     542     528    
THU 12Z 31-DEC  -5.0    -6.3    1023      81      12    0.00     547     529    
THU 18Z 31-DEC  -0.9    -5.6    1027      65      10    0.00     551     530    
FRI 00Z 01-JAN  -4.0    -3.7    1030      82      10    0.00     560     536    
FRI 06Z 01-JAN  -9.3    -1.2    1030      94      16    0.00     565     541    
FRI 12Z 01-JAN  -8.7     0.7    1030      89      19    0.00     565     542    
FRI 18Z 01-JAN  -1.1     2.6    1023      71      47    0.00     563     545    
SAT 00Z 02-JAN  -1.0     2.2    1015      78      94    0.04     559     546    
SAT 06Z 02-JAN  -1.0    -0.5    1012      92      89    0.13     552     543    
SAT 12Z 02-JAN  -2.9     0.1    1016      93      22    0.07     556     544    
SAT 18Z 02-JAN   1.9     1.2    1018      74       7    0.00     559     545    
SUN 00Z 03-JAN  -1.4     0.3    1017      89      22    0.00     558     544    
SUN 06Z 03-JAN  -2.0    -2.6    1015      93      85    0.00     552     540    
SUN 12Z 03-JAN  -0.6    -4.2    1011      96      98    0.15     544     536  

RMY-

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: RMY    LAT=  42.25 LON=  -84.95 ELE=   942

                                            18Z DEC30
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
WED 18Z 30-DEC   4.3    -1.0    1010      94      64             552     544    
THU 00Z 31-DEC  -1.1    -6.6    1014      89       4             547     536    
THU 06Z 31-DEC  -2.0   -11.4    1019      75      17    0.00     545     530    
THU 12Z 31-DEC  -3.1    -8.2    1024      77      13    0.00     549     531    
THU 18Z 31-DEC   0.0    -5.1    1027      56       6    0.00     552     531    
FRI 00Z 01-JAN  -3.4    -3.6    1030      76      10    0.00     561     538    
FRI 06Z 01-JAN  -5.4    -0.3    1030      83      14    0.00     567     543    
FRI 12Z 01-JAN  -5.2     2.1    1030      85      16    0.00     567     544    
FRI 18Z 01-JAN   0.0     4.1    1022      64      81    0.00     564     547    
SAT 00Z 02-JAN  -0.8     3.1    1015      88      86    0.19     560     548    
SAT 06Z 02-JAN  -0.4     2.0    1010      94      98    0.25     551     544    
SAT 12Z 02-JAN  -1.0    -0.4    1015      95      49    0.26     558     545    
SAT 18Z 02-JAN   2.4     1.1    1018      78      17    0.00     560     546    
SUN 00Z 03-JAN  -0.1     0.4    1017      92      43    0.00     559     545    
SUN 06Z 03-JAN   0.4    -3.6    1014      96      79    0.00     552     541    
SUN 12Z 03-JAN   0.5    -4.4    1011      98      96    0.14     544     536

MTC (Niko correct?)

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MTC    LAT=  42.60 LON=  -82.83 ELE=   581

                                            18Z DEC30
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
WED 18Z 30-DEC   5.4     1.4    1009      92      65             554     546    
THU 00Z 31-DEC   2.0    -3.0    1011      88      60             549     540    
THU 06Z 31-DEC  -0.8   -11.3    1017      73      19    0.00     545     531    
THU 12Z 31-DEC  -3.6    -8.3    1023      73      24    0.00     548     530    
THU 18Z 31-DEC   0.1    -6.7    1026      54       7    0.00     551     530    
FRI 00Z 01-JAN  -1.9    -4.6    1030      66       8    0.00     558     535    
FRI 06Z 01-JAN  -4.1    -1.5    1031      83      15    0.00     566     541    
FRI 12Z 01-JAN  -4.0     0.7    1031      88      15    0.00     567     543    
FRI 18Z 01-JAN   0.9     2.9    1025      63      29    0.00     565     546    
SAT 00Z 02-JAN  -0.3     2.3    1017      86      97    0.15     561     548    
SAT 06Z 02-JAN   0.6     3.9    1009      93      99    0.13     555     548    
SAT 12Z 02-JAN   0.3     0.0    1012      95      67    0.50     555     545    
SAT 18Z 02-JAN   2.5     1.2    1017      83       6    0.00     560     546    
SUN 00Z 03-JAN  -2.1     0.9    1018      94      11    0.00     561     546    
SUN 06Z 03-JAN  -0.4    -0.7    1016      94      54    0.00     556     544    
SUN 12Z 03-JAN   0.5    -3.2    1011      99      98    0.11     547     538 
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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@Clinton...Congrats, I am assuming this is your headline......

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
352 PM CST Wed Dec 30 2020


KSZ025-057-060-103>105-MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-
053-054-310600-
/O.CON.KEAX.WS.A.0004.210101T0300Z-210102T0000Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell-
Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
Including the cities of Atchison, Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg,
Pleasanton, La Cygne, Mound City, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth,
Lansing, Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe,
Shawnee, Lenexa, Maysville, Stewartsville, Osborn, Union Star,
Clarksdale, Gallatin, Jamesport, Trenton, Milan, Green City,
Kirksville, St. Joseph Airport, St. Joseph, Cameron, Plattsburg,
Lathrop, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo, Breckenridge, Chillicothe,
Brookfield, Marceline, Macon, La Plata, Parkville, Platte City,
Riverside, Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone, Liberty,
Excelsior Springs, Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton, Salisbury,
Brunswick, Keytesville, Moberly, Kansas City, Independence,
Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington, Concordia, Marshall, Fayette,
Glasgow, New Franklin, Belton, Raymore, Harrisonville,
Pleasant Hill, Warrensburg, Sedalia, Boonville, Butler, Adrian,
Rich Hill, Clinton, and Windsor
352 PM CST Wed Dec 30 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of one to
  as much as four tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, north central, northeast, northwest and west central
  Missouri.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning and evening commutes on Friday.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Not referring to present system...

Just though this phenomenon is very interesting and will impact North American weather in 7 days.

Will computer models be able to assimilate for this extreme analogy ?

 

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/pacific-record-breaking-extratropical-storm-mk/

 

Embedded content: https://players.brightcove.net/1942203455001/B1CSR9sVf_default/index.html?videoId=6219300818001

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