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New Year’s Hard Cutter


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12z ICON is nw, but this darn system has terrible thermals.  We want gulf moisture, but this is bringing gulf air, too.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_33.png

  • Rain 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

That would destroy a snowpack for sure. 

I'm guessing that would be a bunch of sleet and freezing rain for Iowa.  The ICON maps only show snow and non-snow.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS is going back nw now, too.  This could have been a blockbuster with colder thermals.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just now, Stacsh said:

The surge of warm air and lack of any cold air is maddening.   This could've been a major.  

Too warm for anything substantial. Especially with temperature outlook looking very mild for January I fear w/o an SSW it’ll be much of the same at least for south michigan - despite the active pattern and being in middle of meteorological winter. Where is the cold? 

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26 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

Too warm for anything substantial. Especially with temperature outlook looking very mild for January I fear w/o an SSW it’ll be much of the same at least for south michigan - despite the active pattern and being in middle of meteorological winter. Where is the cold? 

Long range looks super warm.   

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OMG....IS KC going to see some moisture this week? Very dry here and currently in a moderate drought. I'll take anything, preferably ice/snow please. 

.5 inches of snow is all I have seen in KC north and that happened in OCT. I believe if we are fair to one another, we should root for KC to get some accumulations this week...LOL

Thanks for all the folks that send out the maps hourly, I LOVE IT!

 

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This mornings runs overall left me in pretty good shape for MAYBE a decent snow, but I hope all that ice doesn't materialize for someone. Looks like January could be a dud if no cold air around. It's always something...lol

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8")
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The Canadian is now the only model that is holding out southeast of Iowa.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Yikes! 12z Euro was a step in the wrong direction for me...less snow and more freezing rain. Nothin's ever easy...lol! 🥴

You just can’t win. That would be devastating ice. Hopefully that doesn’t transpire. I lived through one of those ice storms Dec. 29-30, 2006. No electricity for a week as power poles were toppled. 

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Euro thermals are awful... a waste of a big, moist system.

floop-ecmwf_full-2020122812.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_c.gif.37bc182601c9c7bc0a5e5f968db26f2b.gif

 

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

You just can’t win. That would be devastating ice. Hopefully that doesn’t transpire. I lived through one of those ice storms Dec. 29-30, 2006. No electricity for a week as power poles were toppled. 

I remember that very well. I think I had 1.5-1.75" of ice

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Just now, james1976 said:

I remember that very well. I think I had 1.5-1.75" of ice

There are still trees 14 years later that you can tell were damaged. They survived but look odd. I lost 2 huge trees from my backyard. We were off of school until the 3rd week of January. We went out and lived with my wife’s parents in the country as they had a tractor generator. Grocery stores were closed along with gas stations due to no electricity. You had to drive 30-45 miles to get gas and groceries, but the roads had over an inch of ice so you really didn’t want to drive. 

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8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I don't know what could change to make it colder, there is no artic air to draw from.

That is unfortunately a massive problem. Stay safe. I will probably call my brother in Shawnee tonight to potentially start preparing to have foods on hand and maybe getting ahold of a generator that you hope to never have to use. A big city like the KC metro would be devastated. I am thinking worst case scenario, but I’m also someone who tries to be prepared. 

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11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

This is looking like a devastating ice storm imo.

Yeah it is...you just have to hope the temp stays close to 32F as possible to minimize the damage. Ice storms are the one thing I think all winter weather enthusiasts hate.

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8")
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Just now, Clinton said:

Up close look at ice in KC metro.  

1609696800-fzjPnPmJclY.png

My gosh. I would hope weather forecasters start educating the public of the potential without scaring them. Many in a city wouldn’t be able to cope if electricity would be out for extended periods as maybe those in rural areas could. 

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Just now, Clinton said:

Up close look at ice in KC metro.  

1609696800-fzjPnPmJclY.png

Looks like the air temps hover mostly around 30-31 during the event. Not trying to minimize the situation but temps in the 20s would be much worse...or like what@CentralNebWeather experienced. Hopefully this all changes for the better on future runs.

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8")
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4 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Looks like the air temps hover mostly around 30-31 during the event. Not trying to minimize the situation but temps in the 20s would be much worse...or like what@CentralNebWeather experienced. Hopefully this all changes for the better on future runs.

That is a better scenario if temps are closer to 32. 

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This 2nd system looks gross. Hope it slides SE.

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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41 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Just need 50ish more miles west 

I like the look of being on the NW edge of the 2” mean. I just hope it’s not overcorrecting and ends up back to the SE. It’s funny that a couple days ago the Euro had Memphis in the snow zone, only about 650 miles SE of Lincoln! 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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Full on winter cocktail with that 2nd system for E IA on the GFSs.

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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TOP NWS is actually getting a bit excited about this system. I think the trend may end up more rain and mixed precip than snow...but what do I know...lol. Excerpt from TOP AFD:

Quote

New Year`s Eve into the day on Friday is trending toward the active
side as well weather wise - this time heavy snow could be in cards.
As a deepening upper low lifts into the area with the long wave
trough slow to move through, a TROWAL feature develops and extends
west into the area.  Still no amounts to officially mention as we
will take the tomorrows system one at time first.  Do expect that
amounts for Friday morning could be somewhat impressive.

 

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8")
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