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New Year’s Hard Cutter


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10 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

TOP NWS is actually getting a bit excited about this system. I think the trend may end up more rain and mixed precip than snow...but what do I know...lol. Excerpt from TOP AFD:

 

Looks like the trend is in your favor. I think it's gonna be a rainfest here.

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After NO measurable snow in Nov or Dec, I have picked up 3.25" (so far) on Jan 1. It started around 5:30 AM briefly as sleet and quickly changed to snow. Still snowing so maybe pick up a bit more befo

I got back from TN. on Saturday evening already. They had a pretty bad ice storm north of St Louis where I saw plenty of tree limbs down. Not that much snow till we got to Iowa. One of the first thing

Looks like a great way to ring in 2021 for KS/MO folks, congrats down there. Just an overcast day up here, but at least white ground instead of brown. 

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36 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looks like the trend is in your favor. I think it's gonna be a rainfest here.

I think you and myself might get warm-edged out or iced over here. 

I love the moisture out of the gulf, as someone mentioned, but at the cost of getting rained out or apocalyptic ice, no thanks.

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23 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I think you and myself might get warm-edged out or iced over here. 

I love the moisture out of the gulf, as someone mentioned, but at the cost of getting rained out or apocalyptic ice, no thanks.

Looking at the 18z RGEM getting iced is a real possibility. Hoping for a colder trend cause I think the global models will trend back south and east. Ice is hard on livestock and isn't real good on me either lol.

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27 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looking at the 18z RGEM getting iced is a real possibility. Hoping for a colder trend cause I think the global models will trend back south and east. Ice is hard on livestock and isn't real good on me either lol.

Same here. Plus it took just shy of 11 yrs to recover from the tree destruction here because of the last major ice (2+ inch thickness) event we had here in the Ozarks. I hate ice.

It's trying to do a phase type thing like what happens over the bering sea, where one absorbs the other. If that will work out correctly, deeper cold and a farther SE option are fully on table still yet.

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20 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Same here. Plus it took just shy of 11 yrs to recover from the tree destruction here because of the last major ice (2+ inch thickness) event we had here in the Ozarks. I hate ice.

It's trying to do a phase type thing like what happens over the bering sea, where one absorbs the other. If that will work out correctly, deeper cold and a farther SE option are fully on table still yet.

18z Euro doing just what your talking about, still not cold enough for snow on the front end but very icy.

1609502400-NDAJpxKUw58.png

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28 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro doing just what your talking about, still not cold enough for snow on the front end but very icy.

1609502400-NDAJpxKUw58.png

Yep. It sucks, but the good news is that the euro can have a west bias, but you and I both need the suppression for about another 200 mi.

Still have a ways to go, but this is going to be crappy to track and put confidence in either way. Still have a full range of anywhere from epic disaster to plain rain we could see.

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A typical New Years storm would have all snow in the red area.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

ICON with a big shift east hits KC with snow.

Cuts Shawnee Co KS in half...0" northwest corner...4+" southeast corner. I'm somewhere in between...

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
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parallel GFS

snku_024h.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

0z GFS.  So it looks like we need a weaker low that will rap in less warm air.  Looks like that will be the only way to get a decent widespread snowfall.

1609578000-VhqEjfp5GTc.png

Clinton, 

I bet there is going to be spot that is just in the perfect spot to the northeast of where the low tracks that has the potential to see close to a foot of snow. It will be close enough to the low where it gets the brunt of the deformation zone but also far enough way that the temps will stay just below freezing at the surface and at 850 mb. 

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Based off the last 8 model runs, I think we can all say there a pretty good overall trend of the low tracking further east through central MO rather than south and east of STL like it was a few days ago. Most models are trending more in the direction of a freezing rain event, followed by a few inches of snow for the KC area with most of the snow staying west and north of KC. BUT, today being Tuesday now, I don't want to start seeing the solution I really like until Wednesday into Thursday. 

Those who have been tracking KC snows for years know you do not want to be in the bullseye 4 days out because you know by a day out it will have shifted 50 miles. Tomorrow and Wednesday will be fascinating to track.

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I feel like Des Moines is getting ahead of themselves with this:

Another significant winter storm may impact Iowa by New Years Day as
an upper low lifts north and will bring another surge of Gulf
moisture with it. This system may bring another band of moderate or
higher snowfall along with a wintry mix or period of icing. Won`t
get too specific with this system this morning with the current
ongoing situation to focus on plus these closed upper low system`s
tracks are difficult to nail down the exact path even 2 to 3 days
out. That said, this does look like another significant travel
impact system with headlines expected.
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20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z RGEM not so great.

1609502400-2jnLLf7PwC8.png

Amigo...which is your pick? Ice or rain w this one for yby.....😅

I can see this providing some snow for ya.....at least on the onset. Stay tuned!

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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lol...12z CMC gives me nothing...0.0 QPF.  Precip stays to my southeast. Always expect the unexpected...lol

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
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Certainly not as impressive as earlier, even in the ice department, but it looks likely that the CR/IC area stays frozen and probably picks up a couple inches of snow in addition to whatever ice. 

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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This run, the UK hits the westerlies and is in full weakening mode when it gets up here.

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The track of this storm truly will mean everything. Most models seem to have a decent amount of freezing rain and then changing over to snow; depending on where you live determines how much of what. There are certainly things we don't know but also things we have a good feel on.

Things we know: 

1) A wet storm will be tracking from Mexico, northward eventually tracking somewhere through Missouri and then falling apart. 

2) 1.0-1.5 QPF is likely for many areas to the west and northwest of the track of the low. 

3) A freezing rain component is almost certain as the storm will bring in a lot of warm air aloft. 

4) There will be a changeover to snow in areas west and northwest of the low with likely an 8-12 inches band of snow. 

Things we don't know

1) Exact track of the low.

2) Where the changeover to snow will occur and not occur. 

3) If it will bring enough warm for precip to change over to rain. 

 

Screen Shot 2020-12-29 at 11.34.55 AM.png

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6 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

The track of this storm truly will mean everything. Most models seem to have a decent amount of freezing rain and then changing over to snow; depending on where you live determines how much of what. There are certainly things we don't know but also things we have a good feel on.

Things we know: 

1) A wet storm will be tracking from Mexico, northward eventually tracking somewhere through Missouri and then falling apart. 

2) 1.0-1.5 QPF is likely for many areas to the west and northwest of the track of the low. 

3) A freezing rain component is almost certain as the storm will bring in a lot of warm air aloft. 

4) There will be a changeover to snow in areas west and northwest of the low with likely an 8-12 inches band of snow. 

Things we don't know

1) Exact track of the low.

2) Where the changeover to snow will occur and not occur. 

3) If it will bring enough warm for precip to change over to rain. 

 

Screen Shot 2020-12-29 at 11.34.55 AM.png

The 6z Euro looked imo to have an ideal track for my location, what was it lacking in order to produce snow?

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15 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

The Canadian Model should be the last model we all look at... it was too cold and was the worst model for the storm that is going on right now. Best models to look at GFS, Euro, GEFS, and the NAM. The Canadian always seems to be the outlier. 

Why?

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Nobody posted it but the 12z NAM is way NW, Omaha/Lincoln get 9-11" lmao. There's 24" totals showing up in SE NE since it includes the storm happening now. Long range NAM is about as reliable as the GFS at 200 hours though. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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1 minute ago, Niko said:

Why?

That's my personal opinion. A lot of meteorologists go back and forth with the favorite model being the GFS or EURO. The nam is more of a short term model but tends to be up there as well; it has not been very good this year. The GFS has been. The CMC just is not a very good model-- they vary based off of different physical equations they use and differences in initial conditions. 

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The Euro went to four runs per day several months ago.  The pay sites like Weatherbell and weathermodels.com have the 06z and 18z runs.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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You can see the 6/18z Euro on WxBell. I think it's been a thing for the past couple of years. But I do agree that the CMC is generally garbage. NAM is all over the place past 48 hours. GFS and Euro have both been pretty bad lately and take turns having their moments. I'm not a meteorologist though and this is based on observations in my area. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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A lot of meteorologists in the NWS, at least in STL look at the ensembles. I like looking at the GEFS plumes because it can generate a good portrayal of the spread of the models and give you a general range of what amounts to expect.

I did not know that about the EURO. I just get it off of pivotal weather and use weather.cod and tropical tidbits for other models. I am not a meteorologist either, but I am studying to be one by pursuing my master's degree in it!

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GFS and NAM have been horrendous with thermals in IA and E.NE.(current system) CMC blew them out this time around. Euro was rock steady 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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