New Year’s Hard Cutter

[Niko 7225]

1 minute ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

That's my personal opinion. A lot of meteorologists go back and forth with the favorite model being the GFS or EURO. The nam is more of a short term model but tends to be up there as well; it has not been very good this year. The GFS has been. The CMC just is not a very good model-- they vary based off of different physical equations they use and differences in initial conditions. 

Ok

Personally, GFS has been showing a massive improvement as of lately and yes, it has surpass the king (EURO). Not sure how that happened, but it did, at least in my books. Nam can be a surprising model and that is why I don't discard it at all. It can wipe out other models (which has happened previously). CMC can be interesting to look at, typically, it just gives you ideas of what is/will be happening. Overall, models will be models and cannot be taken seriously, until the event nears (basically within a days timeframe)......again, this is my personal opinion.

 

[snowstorm83 2024]

1 minute ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

A lot of meteorologists in the NWS, at least in STL look at the ensembles. I like looking at the GEFS plumes because it can generate a good portrayal of the spread of the models and give you a general range of what amounts to expect.

I did not know that about the EURO. I just get it off of pivotal weather and use weather.cod and tropical tidbits for other models. I am not a meteorologist either, but I am studying to be one by pursuing my master's degree in it!

Yeah I like to look at GEFS/EPS in the 2-6 day range for snowstorms. 

[Jack_GradStudent 30]

3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

GFS and NAM have been horrendous with thermals in IA and E.NE.(current system) CMC blew them out this time around. Euro was rock steady 

Meaning it has been a lot colder than what the GFS and NAM were predicting and the CMC was more correct? 

[Grizzcoat 3783]

Just now, Jack_GradStudent said:

Meaning it has been a lot colder than what the GFS and NAM were predicting and the CMC was more correct? 

Yeppers. Not the norm. But this time it was.

[snowstorm83 2024]

1 minute ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

Meaning it has been a lot colder than what the GFS and NAM were predicting and the CMC was more correct? 

It was better with thermals than the GFS. GFS slowly corrected some towards then end, but at one point it had 40s and rain in Lincoln with rain up to SD. Lincoln has 6" of snow on the ground and counting right now. 

[snowstorm83 2024]

12z Euro pretty similar track to 00z. Just a tick NW in SE NE (maybe 10 miles). Clocking is ticking for a  real NW nudge for Lincoln. 

[Clinton 4408]

12z Euro still an ice fest in mby

[mlgamer 504]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro still an ice fest in mby

With these endless borderline thermals, slight deviations in track make all the difference in the world. Another downside to not having arctic air available to tap into. My sympathy to forecasters...

[Clinton 4408]

18 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

With these endless borderline thermals, slight deviations in track make all the difference in the world. Another downside to not having arctic air available to tap into. My sympathy to forecasters...

KC forecasters are going to have a hard time.  GFS v16 would be a nightmare for them.

[james1976 3976]

I think this thing is gonna barely miss me to the SE

[gimmesnow 327]

I just want the rain to stay away. We have the potential to build a very nice base in SE WI with tonight's storm. I'd like to keep it, I feel like the last few years every snow we've gotten has been wiped out on a few days with warm and rain.

[Clinton 4408]

No major changes with the Euro Mean

[snowstorm83 2024]

OMA/LNK still riding the edge of the tightening 2" line. Doesnt help that I live on the north edge of town. I'm really just hoping for a couple inches, it would be really nice on top of the snow from today. It'll just slightly suck for me to arrive in town and just watch an existing snowpack slowly melt. 

[Hawkeye 4578]

If we can get a few inches out of this, I'll consider it a win.

[BMT 357]

20 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

If we can get a few inches out of this, I'll consider it a win.

Me too.  Any snow on top of snow within a week is a win anymore.  

[snowstorm83 2024]

To no one's surprise, NAM shifts 100 miles SE in one run. Looks good for KC, DSM, and eastern IA. 

[Jack_GradStudent 30]

Latest NAM shifts about 50 miles to the east. Almost perfect track for KC. Has freezing rain move in early on the 1st, switch to rain in KC, then we get 8 hours or so of good snow especially on the northwest side of the city... this is very similar to the GFS. I am getting more of a feel what I think is going to happen with this... this is a good trend for snow! 

[Clinton 4408]

3 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

Latest NAM shifts about 50 miles to the east. Almost perfect track for KC. Has freezing rain move in early on the 1st, switch to rain in KC, then we get 8 hours or so of good snow especially on the northwest side of the city... this is very similar to the GFS. I am getting more of a feel what I think is going to happen with this... this is a good trend for snow! 

Needs to go east another 60 miles!!!

[someweatherdude 401]

Seems that Des Moines is the place to be so far this year.  Prior to the ongoing storm, they'd had a foot.  I'm guessing around 19-20 inches for the season by tomorrow?  Then add this one to the total.  Here in KC, we got an inch or two in October and nothing since then.  Less than 3 hours separates us. 

[Clinton 4408]

18z ICON trolling KC

[Clinton 4408]

@mlgameryour area looking real good on today's model run

[clintbeed1993 540]

Is my new house finally going to get a snow in St Joe? This thing has the potential to drop a lot on somebody in the area..if only those thermals would play ball.  Going to be nerve racking. We've been in a snow drought so we're due

[Jack_GradStudent 30]

28 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z ICON trolling KC

Haha that's hilarious. I wouldn't pay any attention to that. 

[Jack_GradStudent 30]

15 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

Is my new house finally going to get a snow in St Joe? This thing has the potential to drop a lot on somebody in the area..if only those thermals would play ball.  Going to be nerve racking. We've been in a snow drought so we're due

I would put money that someone gets at least 6 inches of snow between St. Joe and KC 

[mlgamer 504]

14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@mlgameryour area looking real good on today's model run

This looks to be one of the better setups we've had here in quite some time. Hope we can both get in on this without any freezing rain. Almost could deliver for you, me and @OKwx2k4 with a touch of magic on thermals and track. I know it's a long shot but that'd be quite an accomplishment!

[someweatherdude 401]

On 12/28/2020 at 5:25 AM, Clinton said:

6z GFS, thin band of nice snow over KC but I have a bad feeling the frz rain is going to become the story for this storm.

I'm usually very much a pessimist on snow.  With the ongoing storm, it played out almost exactly how I figured.  Even when KC was in the heart of the forecasted snow, I thought it would be an Iowa deal, with the Iowa / Missouri border being the dividing line between the snow haves and have nots.  For some reason, I have a good feeling about Wed/Thurs.  We'll see.  

[Jaycee 1036]

Hoping we can somehow reel this one in here in Chicago. Feels like it’s been too long since we’ve had a snowfall over 3”.

[Jack_GradStudent 30]

Latest GFS has a anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of freezing rain.. keeps most of the snow west and North of KC. Temps mostly stay in the 28-30. This could result in a half an inch of ICE. Usually ice storms are duration events, but this would not be the case. 

I have also noticed a bit of weakening trend... QPF ranges are 1-1.2 and not up to 1.5 like we were seeing earlier. Still very wet, but just something to note. We need this low to maintain its strength and track just a bit further south and east! 

[Clinton 4408]

18z RGEM has a perfect track, needs to be a little stronger.

[Clinton 4408]

18z GFS mean has a little bump in totals

[Niko 7225]

This 2nd storm looks like its trending colder for mby. Have to closely keep an eye on it.

[Hawkeye 4578]

It has been the winter of Des Moines and Cedar Rapids so far, so it'll probably hit us again.

[Grizzcoat 3783]

^ up to 22.3" officially at KDSM for the season.

[Clinton 4408]

18z Euro is weaker and a slight shift SE.

[Clinton 4408]

NWS KC

Our next winter storm comes New Year`s Eve night through New Year`s
Day. The low pressure continues to track through MO, putting our in
a favorable area for winter weather. While confidence is high the
system will move through MO/KS, there is still uncertainty in exact
storm track and therefore precip type, amounts, and location.
Right now, it looks like our entire area is in the path for both snow
and ice accumulations that would cause widespread hazardous
travel. Greater ice accumulations are expected in our eastern counties
right now, with the greater snow accumulations expected in our
western counties. It is still a little early to pin down exact
amounts given the uncertainties that remain, but definitely keep
checking back for updates and start considering to alter any
travel plans. Timing-wise, precip should move in from the south
after sunset New Year`s Eve night and will continue through about
sunset on Friday.

Af

[Grizzcoat 3783]

NAM

[Grizzcoat 3783]

Don't have much good mojo on this one. System will be weakening upon arrival and that should trend things E and SE.

[Clinton 4408]

4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Don't have much good mojo on this one. System will be weakening upon arrival and that should trend things E and SE.

Not looking forward to getting iced.  Congrats on the snow today.

[Jack_GradStudent 30]

The latest nam's track is pretty good for the kc area, but it seems the heaviest precip bands will be on the edges of the precip shield-- I feel like that is fairly common in these type of storms. We need the track to be just a bit stronger and further east and south, and that would put us in the best chance for 6+ inches of snow. 

It's interesting, though, the track at least. It jumps almost straight north into the northeast corner of OK and then starts making a sharper northeast turn into central Missouri-- this will interesting to track on Satellite as it happens.  

[KCSmokey 67]

44 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Not looking forward to getting iced.  Congrats on the snow today.

Just North of KC, in Buchanan County, 16K without power. 

[Clinton 4408]

1 minute ago, KCSmokey said:

Just North of KC, in Buchanan County, 16K without power. 

That stinks, I bet there will be many more come Friday afternoon.  Hope things change but we are running out of time.

[james1976 3976]

I'm thinking no show up this way although local mets and NWS is talking it up.

[Grizzcoat 3783]

gfs-

[Clinton 4408]

3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

gfs-

GFS isn't so bad gets me above freezing.  If it's not going to snow I'll take regular rain.

[mlgamer 504]

To be honest...I'm not sold on this storm yet. Lots of things could go wrong and I already see red flags in thermals, narrow snow band, track, strength, and speed of system issues hinted at in recent model runs. Wouldn't be surprised to end up with our standard mixed precip 1-3" wwa event. Hate to black pill, but I may have seen this movie before. It's starting to feel familiar.

[clintbeed1993 540]

With an extensive snowpack to the north you'd think this thing could tap into a bit more cold air. 1 inch of precip and only 4 inches of snow on the GFS. That is quite pitiful

[Niko 7225]

This 2nd system is trending colder and more south. I am expecting changes in my forecast.

[Clinton 4408]

0z CMC has big totals on the west side of KC also hits St. Joe hard.

[Niko 7225]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z CMC has big totals on the west side of KC also hits St. Joe hard.

Push that south a little pls.

Btw: That looks close enough for yby to receive some decent snows.

[Grizzcoat 3783]

06 NAM (out to lunch IMO)-- no upper air soundings, but I do like the trend NW.