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New Year’s Hard Cutter


hlcater

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9 hours ago, whatitdo said:

@jaster220 thoughts on this upcoming system? 

#2020storm

By that, I mean to say that it's a real oddity so I don't have a lot of history to draw upon unfortunately. It's been mentioned by me and others how this winter has been acting more like a Nino than the Nina that it's supposed to be. That was my thoughts about this storm as well, so there's not a surprise that one of the top CIPS analogs (at least for Chicago) is 12/24/97 the Mega-Nino winter.

As with last night's storm, I do feel good about a last-minute trend to colder as we are seeing on the models. I'd be surprised tho if we somehow found our way to an all-snow event so pretty much expecting the kitchen sink storm which is fine with me as long as any ZR is the smallest ingredient.

In the warm December of 2015, we were chucked a bone on the 28th with a Storm Warning for 3" of sleet and strong easterly winds. Different set-up but this December's warmth reminds me of that one and how you can still manage a decent storm.

TBD if the lack of sampling in Mexico causes last-minute surprises, and especially whether they are positive or not. If our office is typically gun-shy to issue any Watches, how much more with this scenario? I expect headlines to be mishandled. In their defense, this may be the ultimate "now-cast" storm. At least we have a shot. That 0z NAM looks primed! Odd too, since it's been a mini-GFS with it's thermal issues. Can we pull a rabbit out of a hat? That'd make up for all the early disappointments to date.

On a side note, we now have plow piles which to my way of thinking indicates winter has begun. In all but the coldest of winters we get thaws that will wipe out snow cover, but the piles remain in between. When they are finally gone, true winter is usually over at our latitude. So, Happy Winter! Here's to hoping we can score over the next couple days and keep it rolling..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z NAM and ICON

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

icon_asnow_ncus_24.png

 wow. ICON's crap here, but that NAM rocks. Hoping it's onto something.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Per IWX (Wed pm). Some good tid-bits in here and since it's south of me I can get some idea how it may play out here.

Quote

Confidence continues to increase in a several hour period of
freezing rain, sleet, and possibly snow at the onset Friday
morning into early Friday afternoon as a warm layer aloft (850 mb
temps to 5-6C) advects over strong/cold easterly flow in the
sfc-925 mb layer. NBM probabilities for greater than a tenth of an
inch of ice accretion are near 60 percent, especially north of US
24 where colder air may linger longer. Probabilities for warning
level ice (>0.25") are relatively low, with this looking like a
solid advisory event. With that said, there are still some
uncertainties which include timing and how quickly temperatures
warm above freezing Friday afternoon, especially along/north of
Route 6 where sfc temps could hold near freezing into Friday
night. Will hold off on issuing an advisory for now given these
uncertainties. Precipitation should change over to rain for most
later Friday afternoon into Friday evening, ending as light
mixture overnight.

Model solutions continue to come into better agreement in a second
southern stream wave lifting northeastward into the region by
Saturday night and Sunday. Held onto low-mid chance PoPs for now
with some light snow accumulation possible during this time. Quiet
and milder otherwise into early next week.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Boy, did this thread get quiet...Zzzzz...the last storm was such a doozy this one is lacking the cold air to really become a monster snowstorm but nevertheless, some impactful wx is heading in our direction.

00z Ukie..

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

00z Euro...bumping up totals around here...including both waves...should be a wintry "feel" to the opening of 2021 around here...KC folks may be heading towards their biggest snow in a while!.   The Euro has one of the better outcomes for a lot of our members in the Lower Lakes region and our MI peeps... @jaster220 @Stacsh @whatitdo @westMJim

 

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00z EPS...4-5" snow mean for N IL looking good...2" snow mean sagging S in lower MI as well...colder and farther South seems to be the way to go... @Clinton and KC members looking good!  E IA peeps also cashin' in on white gold...some of you may have double digit snow base after this system is over with...

 

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First WSW of the year

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
326 AM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

MOZ025-031>033-038>040-044>046-054-311730-
/O.UPG.KEAX.WS.A.0004.210101T0300Z-210102T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KEAX.WS.W.0005.210101T0600Z-210102T0000Z/
Macon-Carroll-Chariton-Randolph-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-
Johnson MO-Pettis-Cooper-Henry-
Including the cities of Macon, La Plata, Carrollton, Salisbury,
Brunswick, Keytesville, Moberly, Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington,
Concordia, Marshall, Fayette, Glasgow, New Franklin, Warrensburg,
Sedalia, Boonville, Clinton, and Windsor
326 AM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of two
  tenth to three tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central and west central
  Missouri.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
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This mornings AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
446 AM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 444 AM  CST THU DEC 31 2020

Key Point:

-A second storm system is expected to bring a wintry mix of
precipitation to the region on New Year`s Day.  Significant ice
accumulation of 0.25-0.5" appears likely across portions of central
and eastern Missouri. A winter storm warning is in effect for these
locations.  Where significant icing is less of a threat, a winter
weather advisory has been issued.


Very complicated forecast tonight into Friday as strong area of low
pressure is expected to move from central and eastern Texas towards
southern Missouri. 00Z Models have trended farther south and east
with this system, shifting the warmer air aloft south and east and
thus adjusting the icing potential accordingly.

As upper low moves into the Southern Plains this evening, expect
precipitation shield to expand north.  Models have trended a few
hours slower with the system, with precipitation expected to quickly
expand across the area after 06Z.  Precipitation will initially be
sacrificed to saturating the column/evaporative cooling, but should
occur fairly quickly as strong isentropic lift develops. May see
surface temperatures fall a few degrees as upper trough moves in and
the precipitation begins.  Precipitation rates are expected to
fairly impressive with strong lift and  precipitable water values
surging towards 1"-well above the 90th percentile for this time of
year. Models are also hinting at some weak instability developing in
the 750-650 mb layer south of the Missouri River Friday morning, and
lifting northeast through the morning hours. This instability
could enhance precipitation rates. With such strong mid level
dynamics, there is some confidence this system will cool enough
aloft to lead to a favored precip type of snowfall across much of
central and northern Missouri. However, with deep (~8-10K feet)
isothermal layer right at freezing, small changes in trajectory
could have large changes in precipitation type.

In terms of headlines, have focused winter storm warning where icing
is most likely across central and eastern Missouri as warm sector
lifts north and east.  Elsewhere, have issued a winter weather
advisory for wintry mix.  Have excluded northwest Missouri from any
headlines at this time as dry northeast fetch should limit snow
amounts.

Small changes in the track of this system could still lead to large
changes in precipitation types and amounts, and thus additional
changes to the forecast may be needed. Will need to continue to
monitor and respond to latest atmospheric and model trends as this
system unfolds.

Precipitation is expected to wind down across the area Friday
afternoon as low pressure system lifts towards the Great Lakes
region.

Second system is expected to move from the desert southwest into the
Central US on Saturday. Atmosphere appears to be cool enough to
support all snow with this system.  Have raised pops to 75th
percentile of model guidance suggesting light snow across central and
eastern Missouri.

Thereafter, forecast appears fairly quiet with a warming trend into
the middle of next week.  Have not made any changes to the blend
with active forecast in the short term.
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I think it’s been quiet as KS/MO folks are trying not to get to excited yet.  Definitely don’t wish for anyone to be in the heavy ice band. KC has been there before and I’ll never forget the last time our power was out for five days (wife was in the hospital)). 

Lezak was mentioning last night that he expected the models would move slightly SE and lo and behold they are moving that way. 

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On 12/29/2020 at 8:45 PM, Grizzcoat said:

Don't have much good mojo on this one. System will be weakening upon arrival and that should trend things E and SE.

^ (KCSMOKEY post I also saw it. Basic MET 101. The LRC, not so sound imo. But thats for a different day.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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All hi-res models and the CMC, RGEM, and ICON have similar solutions with 3-8in through the area.  I think the KC office is underdoing accumulations for the area.  Seems like they favor the GFS, folks in Iowa can tell you how that works out.

6z HRR was very bullish.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

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3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Not my area- but can't believe TOP area (and others) is not Warning. They must see something.

Nah, this is standard operating procedure and I saw this coming yesterday. My guess is they're afraid of getting burned so they start with a WWA and upgrade to a WSW later if conditions warrant.

That said, this is understandable. The current storm is a great example. Any further shifts in the storm track to the SE and Topeka and points westward may receive next to nothing which many model runs have already shown.  Using the LRC (for those who do), this system produced no precip on the Kansas side in the previous cycle where folks in Missouri had severe weather I believe ( @Clintonwould know for sure).

The storm is still in Mexico this morning and it's arrival keeps getting pushed back a bit which I think favors further adjustments to the SE. So here we are less than 24 hrs away and I'm not sure it will even snow. I have lived through these experiences many times here, so you just try never to get too excited...lol

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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6 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Nah, this is standard operating procedure and I saw this coming yesterday. My guess is they're afraid of getting burned so they start with a WWA and upgrade to a WSW later if conditions warrant.

That said, this is understandable. The current storm is a great example. Any further shifts in the storm track to the SE and Topeka and points westward may receive next to nothing which many model runs have already shown.  Using the LRC (for those who do), this system produced no precip on the Kansas side in the previous cycle where folks in Missouri had severe weather I believe ( @Clintonwould know for sure).

The storm is still in Mexico this morning and it's arrival keeps getting pushed back a bit which I think favors further adjustments to the SE. So here we are are less than 24 hrs away and I'm not sure it will even snow. I have lived through these experiences many times here, so you just try never to get too excited...lol

Yes I had thunderstorms in the previous cycle and they became severe just off to my SE.  I am beginning to favor the RGEM, CMC and ICON along with the Hi-Res models.  There track and how they handle the precip looks more in line with the LRC.  Not to mention they have been rock steady on the track the last couple of days.  12z models should be interesting as the storm will be pulling out of Mexico.

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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Yes I had thunderstorms in the previous cycle and they became severe just off to my SE.  I am beginning to favor the RGEM, CMC and ICON along with the Hi-Res models.  There track and how they handle the precip looks more in line with the LRC.  Not to mention they have been rock steady on the track the last couple of days.  12z models should be interesting as the storm will be pulling out of Mexico.

Yeah, I wouldn't disagree. Looks like the upper low was still in Mexico this morning on satellite, still hope the 12z data starts clearing things up. Satellite, radar and the Hi-Res models today will start telling the tale I think.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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2 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Yeah, I wouldn't disagree. Looks like the upper low was still in Mexico this morning on satellite, still hope the 12z data starts clearing things up. Satellite, radar and the Hi-Res models today will start telling the tale I think.

Really surprised the NWS went for an advisory for KC.  Looks like a warning level event for them imo.

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9 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Maybe all snow in KC?? That's what the NWS has in my forecast.(3-5 inches??) Mention no ice or mix in KC. JUST SNOW...PERFECT! I dropped to 11 degrees this morning at my house with very heavy frost. Still have a layer of ice on the trees/grass 

Game on!

I don't wanna give you false hope but I think you could exceed 5in at your loc.

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The ICON has actually come back nw to hit Cedar Rapids, but it's an outlier.  Other models either scrape CR or are well southeast.

Oops... I did not see the NAM.  Interesting.  Although the 3k NAM is still southeast.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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For Iowa City, every single short term model is showing a minimum of an inch and as much as 5" from the 12z run.  That includes the NAM, 3k NAM (which just clips Iowa City), the RDPS and the CAM models.  I'll never turn down snow, but I hope it stays to 3" or less.  It was a killer shoveling my drive yesterday.  

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Too much of a good thing Iowa Peeps? LOL, send it my way..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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