New Year’s Hard Cutter

[Tom]

12z UKIE...

 

[bud2380]

UK ticked NW, but not enough to give IC and CR any snow.  Keokuk does well this run though.

 

[jaster220]

So far my office is focused on round 1 of this storm and its all icy here. 2nd WWA in 2 days but not one I can get very excited about.

[bud2380]

Euro ticking NW as well.

[Hawkeye]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Euro ticking NW as well.

[bud2380]

If the Euro is correct, some areas currently under no headlines in SE Iowa will need to go from nothing to winter storm warnings. 

[Clinton]

12z Euro very juiced

[Clinton]

And the ugly side to this Euro run

[bud2380]

Kuchera

 

[Clinton]

@mlgamerThis has to look good for you.

[bud2380]

There is a chance the NWS will have to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Johnson County and areas south and east in Iowa.  It's going to be a really close call for Iowa City.  

[bud2380]

The Euro has a secondary piece of energy on Saturday.  Previous runs had this up into E Iowa, but this run shifted well to the southeast.

 

[Tom]

12z Euro...I'd be stoked to get another 3-5" event...maybe isolated spots get more???

[mlgamer]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@mlgamerThis has to look good for you.

Yeah, I sit right on top of the first "1" in the "10.1" in Shawnee Co.

That ice looks bad on the Euro. I'm sure you're prepped. Sure hope that doesn't happen.

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, mlgamer said:

Yeah, I sit right on top of the first "1" in the "10.1" in Shawnee Co.

That ice looks bad on the Euro. I'm sure you're prepped. Sure hope that doesn't happen.

Prepped as I can be. It could be a tough weekend.

[jaster220]

45 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...I'd be stoked to get another 3-5" event...maybe isolated spots get more???

Me too, tho it looks dependent on the trailing wave for any decent snow here. You look better positioned attm. Hoping NW bumps cease and desist.

[Tom]

12z Euro...nice swath of mod snowfall over E IA/N IL...I'll take a 5" snow mean all day long...

[mlgamer]

TOP NWS has upgraded the WWA to a WSW (5-7") for areas south and east of Topeka. Topeka and points west and north remain in the WWA (1-4+").

So...as usual...I'm in a WWA while a county right next to me is in a WSW.

[Clinton]

The warnings and advisories have really lit up.

[Stacsh]

GRR has upgraded to  2-4" for my area.  I'll take it.   If we stay all snow 3" or more seems likely.  One thing I do hate is melting during the day and refreezing at night.  It's annoying in a "warmer" than normal pattern like this.  

[bud2380]

DVN issued a winter weather advisory for my backyard. . 2-4”

[bud2380]

WWA says 2-4” but the point forecast was reduced from 1-3” to less than an inch.

[Clinton]

18z RGEM.  KC seems to be the target

[Jack_GradStudent]

https://whatgoesonoutside.wordpress.com/2020/12/31/major-winter-storm-takes-aim-on-the-midwest/?fbclid=IwAR3Lzso8d-S9ZN_-kiN-OB4TicL-0goHePo2xhv-tGx5CX-nYsDKJ9KfoOo

Check out my thoughts for KC metro and subscribe to my weather blog! Click on WhatGoesOnOutside and scroll down and you'll see where you can subscribe. Thanks!! Excited for this storm. 

[bud2380]

18z ICON

 

[Clinton]

18z Euro first storm

18z Euro with 2nd disturbance

[jaster220]

Hafta hope the Euro has this. Other models here show much less snow. Hoping for last-minute colder profiles aloft. Maybe heavier rates will come to my rescue. Perhaps 10 years since a "now cast" event delivered a positive surprise.

[Clinton]

A few updates to KC afternoon AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
707 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

.Update...
Issued at 706 PM CST THU DEC 31 2020

Sent an update this evening to the winter weather headlines to
better align the counties with their predominate weather hazard.
One segment of the Winter Storm Warning includes the counties with
the higher ice amounts, while the second segment of the Winter
Storm Warning includes the counties with the higher snow amounts.
The Winter Weather Advisory area is still expecting mainly snow.
Timing still looks good for all winter weather headlines.


&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 PM CST THU DEC 31 2020

**Main message: A dangerous winter storm will to move into the area
after midnight tonight and continue through the day Friday. This
storm will produce significant ice and snow amounts providing for
extremely hazardous travel conditions thus traveling is not
recommended. In addition, winds with this system will be out of the
NNE to N gusting to 20 to 30 kts which will aid in bringing branches
and power lines down leading to power outages. A Winter Storm
warning is in effect from midnight tonight through 8PM tomorrow.

**Forecast Changes: A continued slight shift in the track of the
storm to the south and east shifting heaviest snow and ice slightly
eastward. A slight slowing of the system has also occurred.

**Main forecast challenges: 1) The strength of the warm nose
continues to vary amongst the models however, most now support
precipitation onset over the area (except NE Kansas and NW Missouri)
as freezing rain. 2) The track of the storm is in fairly good
agreement. With the track shifting a little further south and east
that may usher in the colder air aloft quicker cooling the warm nose
with perhaps a quicker transition from freezing rain to snow. This
has lead to increasing snow accumulations along and just south of
the I-35 corridor into the KC Metro. 3) The possible convective
nature of precipitation (and strength of the warm nose) may limit
freezing rain accretion. 4) Surface temperatures across the
southeastern CWA are progged by several operational models such as
the GFS and NAM to rise above freezing. However, Hi-res models keep
temperatures below freezing and climatology would suggest that will
be the case keeping precipitation in the form of freezing rain.

Discussion: The upper level trough that will bring the precipitation
to the area tonight is evident on water vapor imagery across southern
Texas. Moisture has begun streaming north out ahead of the system
with precipitation already extending from the Red River Valley to
the southern Ozark. This upper level system will continue to move
north this evening becoming stacked. By 06Z, the closed low will
reach the Red River and the northern edge of the precipitation
shield will reach the southern CWA. precipitation will continue to
move north into the are through the overnight hours as the system
moves into eastern Oklahoma. As the precipitation spreads into the
area, it will encounter, a stout warm nose of 2-5C and below
freezing surface temps. This will allow precipitation to begin as
freezing rain for most of the warning area with the exception of the
northwestern CWA where the warm nose is not as strong or
nonexistent. A period of freezing rain is expected from along the I-
35 corridor south and east. As the stacked low moves into into
southwestern Missouri near sunrise tomorrow we will begin to see
winds shift to the north ushering colder temps aloft and we will
begin to see conditions transition from freezing rain to snow from
northwest to southeast during the day on Friday as the system moves
south of the area across the I-44 corridor. This will allow for a
almost all snow scenario to the northwest of the I-35 corridor with
generally light snow being the predominant p-type with snow totals
between 1-3 inches. Along and just south of the I-35 corridor is
where we expect to see a freezing rain transition to snow earlier on
Friday allowing for a band of 3-5 inches of snow with a tenth to
perhaps as much as a quarter inch of ice. Further south and east the
warm nose will be slower to cool and as such here we will produce
ice accumulations between quarter to half an inch with as much as
third quarters of an inch possible with snow amounts of 1-2 inches.
By Friday evening the stacked system moves to eastern Missouri and
precipitation will end from southwest to northeast.

[Clinton]

And the precip has began as sleet. Radar indicates it will be changing to frz. rain shortly. Temp at 28.

[clintbeed1993]

This storm is disgusting. 50 mile miss to the south. Goes from 5-7 inches around Kansas City to literally less than an inch 50 miles north.

[jaster220]

SR models keeping my area at or below freezing the entire event (2m temps). NMM has a nice looking switch to snow Saturday evening. Hoping for something like that to play out. Also, it's quite a bit colder tonight ahead of the system than the 0z NAM had. 19F attm

[KCSmokey]

A tractor tractor has overturned on westbound I-70 at the 133 mile marker in Boone County. Please avoid the area.

#BooneCouty https://twitter.com/MSHPTrooperF/status/1344899900010541057/photo/1

[bud2380]

6z NAM really upping totals for Iowa city and even CR

[Tom]

00z Euro trended a little colder and thus a bit better with snow amounts for the 1st wave across N IL.  The last couple days, the RPM was showing the least amount of snow but this mornings recent run brought a much better swath of 3-4" of Snow across most of N IL.  ORD actually bumped up to 4.6" which could be a good sign that we will primarily see snow.  I still think thermals are marginal and I'll have to deal with some freezing rain or sleet for much of the morning/early afternoon.  The Euro is the only model that brings the second wave solidly up into all of N IL.  Most of S MI look to end up doing quite well.

 

 

 

[Tom]

00z Euro Control...

[Tom]

00z EPS snow mean...looking better for S MI folks...that second wave is trending stronger for ya'll..

 

[Tom]

00z UKIE... @KCSmokey @Clinton @jaster220  and S MI/N IN members looking good...

[Tom]

06z Euro...

[Clinton]

Good morning Happy New Year currently have no power as I have about a half inch of ice. Will post a few pictures in a minute the good news is the freezing rain has now turned to sleet hopefully it will flip to snow and make it a little whiter outside

[Clinton]

Ice pictures