November 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

November is usually a volatile month and transitioning from meteorological Autumn to Winter can produce some interesting weather in the lower 48..  The CFS/CFSv2 have been hinting for quite some time now to open the month on a wintry note from the Plains to the Lakes.  Will the Plains/Upper Midwest be the first to have widespread snowfall this month???  How will the weather turn out for Discovery Channel's Skycraper walk in Chicago on November 2nd???  Is winter going to start off on a fast note this year or not???  Let's discuss.

[clintbeed1993]

I don't know for sure, but I think the plains should get something good.  We were completely screwed over last winter with bitter cold and hardly any snow.

[Geos]

Unsettled and below normal across a large part of the Midwest I think overall. 

I think will be tracking snow systems as early as the 5th this November!

[Tom]

Unsettled and below normal across a large part of the Midwest I think overall. 

I think will be tracking snow systems as early as the 5th this November!

Ya, the first few days of November is the target period for our first snow storm.  I guess you could say the Plains deserve to be the first to get the white stuff after that abysmal year last season.  This month is looking to start on an active note with storminess in east Asia about every 4-6 days with shots of cold over the next 2 weeks.

[Tom]

Some interesting developments in the 00z Euro ensembles as we open November.  Stark differences from yesterdays 00z run to last nights 00z run.  I'm going to continue to stress the idea of the models bringing the trough to close into the west coast as has been the case over the last week or so.  Notice the deep blues showing up in the NE Pacific farther and farther off the coast and now the model is seeing deeper blues in the Plains/Upper Midwest and into C Canada.  BTW, check out the warming beginning in Alaska.  This will trigger a bigger shot of some arctic air with the potential wintry system in early November around the 4th-8th.

[Tom]

Euro continues to deepen the trough next weekend and getting colder.  Some very cold nights in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes next weekend.

 

[Geos]

Quiet the cold pool next weekend.

 

 

[Tom]

This month we are going to have to start paying more attention to the cold air winning the battles.  In October, the warmth prevailed in the Plains and parts of the Midwest, but as you can see now the pattern is beginning to go into over drive with the cold.  I noticed on the 12z Euro run in the extended it is picking up on that storm system around the 4th with another reinforcing shot of cold air building in the northern Plains.

[Geos]

The cold shot and wind direction for next weekend looks prime for an early taste of LES showers. Possibly on the west side of Lake Mich.

[bud2380]

Latest gfs shows no signs of any major cold outbreaks or winter precip over the next 2 weeks.

[GDR]

Latest gfs shows no signs of any major cold outbreaks or winter precip over the next 2 weeks.

[GDR]

That's also what I'm starting to see also!

[Geos]

Latest gfs shows no signs of any major cold outbreaks or winter precip over the next 2 weeks.

 

Tell that to the EURO and the NWS offices around here. Rain and snow showers now in the forecast for the end of the week, lows in the 20s.

 

The trough is definitely there on the 12z GFS! Cold front drives into the deep South.

 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Meh Geos, maybe we'll see a flurry, but a brief cold snap with no meaningful precipitation doesn't excite me, but it's often par for the course in early November.

[Geos]

Meh Geos, maybe we'll see a flurry, but a brief cold snap with no meaningful precipitation doesn't excite me, but it's often par for the course in early November.

 

Looks like a prime set up for instability showers during the day.

[Hawkeye]

Today's model runs are farther east with next weekend's cold surge.  I would still get a solid freeze Saturday morning, but the core cold would hit farther east in the lakes.

[Geos]

Latest EURO's take on the trough placement.

 

[bud2380]

Gfs still not showing any cold outbreaks or significant winter weather in the Midwest. Could be a bit chilly this weekend but nothing we aren't accustom to in November. It's pretty rare to get significant snow in eastern Iowa in November. Cedar Rapids only averages 1.7" of snow in November.

[Geos]

EURO nudged the trough west on last night's run. Sub -10° area covers more real estate by the looks of it.

 

[Maxim]

Save those deep troughs for the winter when they're more interesting.

[Hawkeye]

Gfs still not showing any cold outbreaks or significant winter weather in the Midwest. Could be a bit chilly this weekend but nothing we aren't accustom to in November. It's pretty rare to get significant snow in eastern Iowa in November. Cedar Rapids only averages 1.7" of snow in November.

 

I just turned 40 and I can't remember any big snow events in November, ever.  You'd think it would happen once in a while, but it doesn't.  Our ceiling seems to be a stray inch or less during the first half of November(even that has only occurred once in the last seven years) and two or three inches late in the month(also not very often).  November is often a boring month in between seasons.

[Geos]

It doesn't snow more than a couple inches every November, but there has been some noteworthy snowfalls around here that I can remember back in the 90s. I don't remember them sticking around real long, but they can occur if the colder than normal air masses are moving about the continent early in the season.

[Tom]

A significant storm system is being forecasted to hit the Sea of Japan in the Nov 1-2 time frame with a significant cold shot thereafter.  This would suggest the Plains/Upper Midwest/Midwest to be in the area of concern around the 8th-12th for a potential wintry blast.  There could be another storm to hit that region in 4-6 days later.  The potential for a stormy and cold open to November is on the table.  Watch out for the sudden shortening of wavelengths and coupling of the jet stream this month as we head closer towards winter.

[Tom]

Over the last 2 days I have watched the GFS in consecutive runs build a rapid snow cover in Canada as we roll on into November.  The reservoir of cold air will begin to build in this part of the northern hemisphere over the next few weeks.  The idea of an early season sever shot of arctic air is on the table towards mid month as the CFS was indicating a couple weeks back. 

 

 

On another note, SST's in the Pacific are moving towards the long range modeling, esp in the NE Pacific.  Check out the difference in just a matter of a few days and the cold pool of water building right where the JAMSTEC was forecasting the trough to build heading towards the winter months.  Having said that, you need to pay attention to the models in the longer range correct the troughs farther off the coast this month that should keep the ridge farther towards the coast/rockies and respond with troughs in the central/eastern CONUS.  Same concept has taken place 2 weeks ago when I saw the models pumping the east coast ridge and now we are seeing a major trough this weekend.  Coincidence???  No, just the seasonal change that is heading into over drive this month.

[Tom]

The SSW event taking place is poking into the arctic regions, it will have implications in our weather down the road....bear in mind it's location is right where the coldest air is placed in the northern hemisphere.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

[Tom]

The last couple runs the GFS is starting to show signs of that storm system correlating with the East Asian Theory.  What we have to watch is the heights rise in the NW Territories/Alaska just like they are doing for this weekend's storm system over the Lakes/East Coast.  Notice on the 12z run of the GFS, the 500mb hieghts rising near Alaska AND near Hudson Bay, this will in turn result in some cold air to filter into the Plains.  We'll see how this evolves. 

[Tom]

Check out the arctic air building near the Yukon and NW Territories Day 10 on the GFS.  All it would take is to build that ridge to unleash the fridge and allow the jet stream to buckle into the Lower 48 later this month.  Long range GFS already showing the storm train correlating well with the East Asian Theory.

[bud2380]

I just turned 40 and I can't remember any big snow events in November, ever.  You'd think it would happen once in a while, but it doesn't.  Our ceiling seems to be a stray inch or less during the first half of November(even that has only occurred once in the last seven years) and two or three inches late in the month(also not very often).  November is often a boring month in between seasons.

 

I'm 34 and I grew up in northeast Iowa, so it is usually a bit colder there than CR (not much, but a couple degrees on average).  I remember one large snowstorm in roughly 1992 or 1993 just before Thanksgiving.  We got out of school early the day before Thanksgiving due to snow.  As I recall I woke up on Thanksgiving morning with 8" of snow on the ground. 

 

Ok, so I looked up weather history for Dubuque and sure enough on 11/25/92 Dubuque reported 8" snow depth an 1.05" precip with a high of 37 and low of 30.

 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDBQ/1992/11/25/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

[james1976]

Im a ways west of waterloo.....we get snow in November. Two years ago we had 4" on Nov 7th and it knocked out power cuz it was really wet and heavy. And Oct 22 last year we had an inch.

And I remember that pre-Thanksgiving storm very well in 92. We got dumped on. There have been a lot of November snow events around here.

[bud2380]

According to this website, the snowiest November seen in Dubuque in the last 15 years only recorded 4.5".  So you could look at it one of 2 ways.  #1 we're overdue for a November snowstorm, or #2 the odds of having a large November snowstorm are small. 

 

http://weather-warehouse.com/WeatherHistory/PastWeatherData_DubuqueRgnlArpt_Dubuque_IA_November.html

[bud2380]

James, Waterloo got 7.8" from that 1992 storm.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KALO/1992/11/25/DailyHistory.html

[bud2380]

And some more info on that storm, sorry to hijack the thread a bit here.

 

1992: A snow storm struck most of Iowa (excepting northwestern areas) on the day before Thanksgiving with the heavy wet snow bringing down power lines and sticking to roads making travel very hazardous. The highest reported snowfall amounts were in a band extending from south central through northeastern Iowa including totals of 7.9 inches of Waterloo, 8.0 inches at Lorimor, Postville, and Winterset, 9.0 inches at Grundy Center and Tripoli, 9.3 inches at Des Moines, and 10.4 inches at Dubuque.

[CentralNebWeather]

In central Nebraska we have had some large November snow storms. Thanksgiving weekend 1983. We didn't have school until the following Wednesday, i was a 9th grader. Thanksgiving weekend 1992, November 10, 2000, thanksgiving weekend 2005, no school until Wednesday, I remember because I am now a teacher. Wow more than people would expect.

[Money]

So, what is ENSO telling us for this winter? Currently, the waters in the equatorial Pacific are slightly warmer than normal, but not quite warm enough for ENSO to be considered in the El Niño phase. However, through the winter, the water temperatures are forecast to warm, initiating a weak El Niño event. What does that mean for Wisconsin? In the past, El Niño events have been associated with above normal winter temperatures in Southern Wisconsin, especially in the case of moderate to strong events. However, as you can see in the graphs below, when there is a weak El Niño, there has been about the same number of cool and warm winters. So based on this information, there is no clear signal showing that this winter will be cold or warm; in other words, there are equal chances of above or below average temperatures when a weak El Niño event occurs.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=104882&source=0

[Geos]

The SSW event taking place is poking into the arctic regions, it will have implications in our weather down the road....bear in mind it's location is right where the coldest air is placed in the northern hemisphere.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

 

Full blown SSW taking place. It's off to a fast start this winter, unlike a couple years ago.

[Tom]

I wanted to pay attention to the middle of next week and compare the last 3 days run of the GFS ensembles.  It's been happening more often than not over the past 2-3 weeks in the East/GL/Midwest where the model sees a big time ridge, then slowly start erasing it.  Check out the last 3 days consecutively for 18z on the 8th of this month.  Notice on the 18z 25th run, a big time ridge over the central/eastern CONUS, on 18z 26th run a little bit less impressive ridge, on the 18z 27th run...ridge disappearing and blocking starting to show up over the top near Alaska and over the pole.  With a potential storm system to develop somewhere in the central CONUS towards the beginning of next week, we'll have to see how this storm (if it does evolve) develop.  It could have a chance to tug down some colder air with it down the road and create a bigger trough than what the models are showing now.

[james1976]

GFS is starting to get colder in long range. Lets see how future runs go.

[Tom]

12z GFS starting to turn the corner in the long range...those building heights in the arctic regions that I have been pointing out could lead to tapping some serious early season arctic air that will begin to build up near the Yukon/NW territories..  The system showing up around the 4th of November near Lake Winnipeg may be the one that tugs down this colder air down the road.  Utilizing the East Asian Theory and the system that traversed north of Japan a couple days ago may be lining up pretty nice with this system in southern Canada mid next week.

[Tom]

Differences showing up rather quickly for later next week from yesterday's 12z GFS ensembles to todays 12z ensembles...not much of a ridge anymore on 12z the 8th, and notice by Day 12 there is a Bearing Sea trough present which pumps the NE Pacific Ridge.  BTW, the Bearing Sea trough gets set up by Day 7-16 and doesn't seem to leave and stays in tack.

[Tom]

Both 12z GFS and 12z Euro not showing much of a warm up in the 6-10 Day range....maybe in the Plains, but Midwest/Lakes/East stay below normal.  In fact, 12z Euro trying to say there will be an Alberta Clipper that lays down some snow nearby....we'll see if this pans out.