November 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

What I like about the NAO and AO is that the AO is more negative than the NAO. That signal shouldn't overwhelm the pattern with cold and push everything south and to the East Coast. 

 

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I guess I'm getting used to the 20s, because it doesn't feel that bad outside right now! 

[Geos]

I hear crickets in here! Any updates on thanksgiving storm?

 

I think everyone is waiting for the 0z runs. I am.'

 

Was just looking at this live webcam from downtown Buffalo. Whiteout!

http://www.wgrz.com/videos/news/2014/03/02/3498599/

[james1976]

Thanksgiving storm is showing up on GFS OP but very weak. Major cold air push right after it.

[winterfreak]

Yeah GFS hardly has anything but a trough in the northeast in that timeframe. Sure doesn't look like a potential snowstorm. Oh well still have a whole winter to go through lol.

[Tom]

Yeah GFS hardly has anything but a trough in the northeast in that timeframe. Sure doesn't look like a potential snowstorm. Oh well still have a whole winter to go through lol.

Don't sweat it just yet, GFS bias is to move storms off to the east to fast and form troughs to the east to much.

[Tom]

00z GGEM takes the Thanksgiving storm way north almost identical to the storm that hit the 1st week of November.

[Tom]

Over the last couple days the CFSv2 has been hinting at a colder Thanksgiving week into December, but the last 4 runs are really turning cold.  Should pull the trough back farther west as well.

 

 

[Tom]

For those who have Wx Bell, JB has been indicating that a pullback is prone to happen in early December.  He's basing this prediction because of his analogs that he's using for this winter.  IMO, even though he is using the analogs of some of the big winter hitters that did have a pullback after starting out of the gate fast and furious in November ( like Nov 1976), sometimes analogs don't always play out.  Last year Wx Bell believed that winter would flip in March (bc of his analogs of 1993-94) and that didn't happen and it kept going into April.  The LRC won that battle and it kept coming.  What's to say this winter can't start early and never let go???  I think the temporary reloading period is about to happen this weekend into Monday.  This coming major storm to hit the Lakes will set the stage for another cold and stormy period leading into December.

 

I've been watching the Euro ensembles over the past month or so correct themselves in the shorter term when in the Day 10-15 they showed sometimes the complete opposite over and over again.  Maybe they have some merit this time around and the pattern will be tranquil as we head into December (this is what the Euro ensembles are showing now).  Something tells me that won't happen and knowing how this model has behaved in the past couple months can't be discounted.  

 

Another point is, the LRC will begin Cycle 2 soon and if you remember back on Oct 4th there was a PV feature near Hudson Bay and we entered a very cold period to open the month of October (esp near the Lakes) with lots of blocking....something the CFSv2 is now showing.  I'm very curious to see what happens over the next 2 weeks and who comes out on top.  I have a feeling the LRC will win again. 

[Tom]

I'm going to show you the GFS's models bias correction westward using the GFS Ensemble 500mb pattern from yesterday's 00z 19th run to tonight 00z 20th run.  What I want to point out is, look at the main trough's correction over eastern NAMER from yesterday to tonight's run.  The models deeper blues/greens are located just SW of Greenland 24 hours ago, now the model is seeing them just north of the Lakes and therefore the main trough is farther west.  Notice also that circular pattern just north of Hudson Bay (Polar Vortex).  Is this Cycle 2 starting to repeat itself like we saw in early October???  Hint, hint, hint...

[Tom]

My goodness...00z Euro back to trying to develop a Monster OV/Lower Lakes cutter...Winter 2014-15 will be remembered as the year of monster phased storms.  I knew there would be model mayhem in this range and flip flopping but when I see the Euro come back to showing this biggie, something tells me the Pattern will keep on giving.

 

 

[winterfreak]

Wow that's great for areas just to my south lol. Chances of a jog NW nine days out? Hmmm...we'll see.

[Tom]

Predicted snow cover to end November with a bang....insane amount of snow to see on a map like this and its not even meteorological Winter.  Check out the day time highs nxt Saturday being predicted...the Polar Plunge will come again.

[Tom]

Wow that's great for areas just to my south lol. Chances of a jog NW nine days out? Hmmm...we'll see.

There will be many more shifts, but I suspect a NW shift with an intense system like this.

[james1976]

What happened to the Thanksgiving storm?

[Maxim]

What happened to the Thanksgiving storm?

Look at Tom's maps.

[Maxim]

Being in the bullseye this far out is never good by the way. I'm liking where i'm at so far.

[GDR]

It wouldn't surprise me if we seen a good sized shift northwest.

[Niko]

My area is now under a Winter Weather Advisory for 2-4 inches of snow today. From looking at my radar, I am getting lake effect snows now from the western portion of the state and it looks like they are surviving the trip across. Yesterday, it was snowing all day on and off and received 2.8 inches and another 2-4 today.....wow. This was a surprise, for sure. Everything outside is snowcover and roads are very bad. 

[GDR]

Looks like one heck of an ice storm in the making also!

[winterfreak]

Sounds awesome Nikos. Even sweeter that it's happening November.

Share some of that with your central plains brethren will you.

[Geos]

Wow, the EURO came in with a real nice storm last night! 

 

I guess this storm is the Black Friday and Saturday after storm!

[tim the weatherman]

it looks like that a corridor from ok to mi will get over a foot of snow by next weekend that anything is possible with this storm that it could go nw.

[Tom]

From LOT:

 

 

 

...UNPRECEDENTED EARLY SEASON FREQUENCY OF SNOWFALL...

FREQUENT SNOW HAS COMBINED WITH THE COLD TO PROVIDE A FEEL OF
WINTER ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. FOR BOTH LONG
TERM CLIMATE SITES OF CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD THIS HAS BEEN IN RECORD
BREAKING TERRITORY.

CHICAGO...

AS OF NOVEMBER 19TH...CHICAGO HAD OBSERVED EIGHT CONSECUTIVE DAYS
WITH AT LEAST A TRACE OF SNOWFALL SINCE NOVEMBER 12TH. THIS WAS THE
EARLIEST STRETCH OF OVER A WEEK /EIGHT DAYS PLUS/ OF DAILY
SNOWFALL ON RECORD...WHICH HAD BEEN NOVEMBER 13TH-20TH 1937. THE
CURRENT EIGHT DAY STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE SNOWFALL JOINS ONLY THE
1937 SPAN AND NOVEMBER 23RD-30TH 1954 AS EIGHT CONSECUTIVE DAYS
WITH SNOWFALL IN NOVEMBER.

[Tony]

Predicted snow cover to end November with a bang....insane amount of snow to see on a map like this and its not even meteorological Winter.  Check out the day time highs nxt Saturday being predicted...the Polar Plunge will come again.

Based off of the temperature map we could be looking at around 18/20:1 ratios which would be well over a 1' to maybe 18" of snow. I know way too early to be talking amounts but just wanted to throw that out.

[tim the weatherman]

Based off of the temperature map we could be looking at around 18/20:1 ratios which would be well over a 1' to maybe 18" of snow. I know way too early to be talking amounts but just wanted to throw that out.

it could snow for 3 to 4 inches per hour with thundersnow and with a 20 to 1 snow ratio means that this would be fluffy kind.

[Tony]

it could snow for 3 to 4 inches per hour with thundersnow and with a 20 to 1 snow ratio means that this would be fluffy kind.

The dynamics for this to happen would have to be perfect.

[GDR]

Could be talking about feet not inches for storm totals

[gosaints]

this thread is becoming LOL worthy

[NEJeremy]

The dynamics for this to happen would have to be perfect.

 

Don't worry, every storm is going to be like this if you ask Tim...   There's always reference to the Groundhog's Day Blizzard. That was a once in probably 20 year event, but yet every storm that shows up on a 7 day outlook is going to have 4" snowfall rates and thundersnow

[Tony]

Until we see model consensus then to me this is just a fantasy storm but nonetheless still fun to track and talk about. I believe there will be a storm but just depends where will it eventually hit.

[Tom]

Based off of the temperature map we could be looking at around 18/20:1 ratios which would be well over a foot of snow.

Still a LONG way off but I like our chances with this one.

 

Until we see model consensus then to me this is just a fantasy storm but nonetheless still fun to track and talk about.

Surprisingly, a majority of the Euro ensembles are showing some big hitters...still plenty of time to digest what will happen.

[Tony]

I' m not totally sure but I am guessing that one of the reasons why the GFS does not show this storm is because of the ridging off the west coast. We would probably have to look at the 500mb maps to see what is happening.

[Tom]

Case point I made last night about the Euro showing a blow torch as we head into December on yesterday's and the previous days runs for the first few days of December.  Last night's runs, the flip begins to colder.  The models bias to hang the trough near the coast (Day 10-15) has been happening over and over again.  IMO, there is too much warm water now hugging the coastline to have a trough in that area.

 

Check out the reversal....

 

 

[Scott26]

This storm has potential of course, but it's still well in fantasy land. Pretty much all of the Euro ensembles are at least showing something during this time period. Still there is no use in hyping a storm that may not even come into fruition. We will see...

[NEJeremy]

I always love the wishcasting on this forum by all the snow lovers here. I'm guilty of it myself. That's why I come here for the optimism and to at least get temporarily excited about the prospects of snow, until I watch it all crumble in front of me on the models. There are a few on here who are definitely the supreme optimists when it comes to snowstorms and winter weather, and please don't feel I'm saying this is a bad thing!!

If everything that people here "felt" was going to happen, happened across the US, we would all always be buried under 3 feet of snow and be below zero for 4 months straight!

Unfortunately in the real world, most big storms never come to fruition or they fall in the form of rain or something else happens to mess things up. Just the brutal cold reality, I guess!

That's why here in Nebraska, we only average about 26" of snow per year and I saw a stat where we only get one 5+" snowfall on average per year.

 

http://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Nebraska/Places/omaha-snowfall-totals-snow-accumulation-averages.php

[tim the weatherman]

another about this storm i wouldn't ruled out the negative tilt with this storm.

[NEJeremy]

Did we lose the storm for Thanksgiving already too? A couple of days ago, it was showing a storm for Thanksgiving right along I-80, and then another one a couple of days later. Now it seems like there is just the one, the days after Thanksgiving. I'm kindof glad if we don't have one on Thanksgiving as we have to travel.

[Tom]

Did we lose the storm for Thanksgiving already too? A couple of days ago, it was showing a storm for Thanksgiving right along I-80, and then another one a couple of days later. Now it seems like there is just the one, the days after Thanksgiving. I'm kindof glad if we don't have one on Thanksgiving as we have to travel.

It's still there.  What I believe will happen is another storm system will come off the Pacific into Oregon/Washington and then develop in the Plains like we have been seeing with systems as of late.  What happens from there is up in the air.

[Maxim]

Could be talking about feet not inches for storm totals

So GHD Blizzard redux? lol

[GDR]

What are the Euro ensembles showing?