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November 2014 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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D**n, just check out the difference between 0z and 12z for the Wed/Thu system. Big trend towards the euro on a stronger/compact system. 

One thing I learned from JB and his forecasting skills is sudden shortening of wave lengths that dig bigger troughs and strengthen systems.  This is a textbook example of that and will be the lead system of which (btw, was showing up near Lake Superio/Ontario just 3-4 days ago) will begin the massive pattern change into a cold pattern that leads us straight into winter.  I love it!  Meteorology at its finest!

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My intuition tells me this November may rival the brutal start to winter of 1976.  The way its looking late next week and the following week we could be even surpass the way it turned out in 1976.  Incredible.

 

BTW, 12z GFS showing high temps in the upper 30's next Friday!  Flippin' cold in a heart beat....

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My intuition tells me this November may rival the brutal start to winter of 1976.  The way its looking late next week and the following week we could be even surpass the way it turned out in 1976.  Incredible.

 

BTW, 12z GFS showing high temps in the upper 30's next Friday!  Flippin' cold in a heart beat....

 

CPC's 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks finally got the hint that November won't open on a blowtorch.

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12z GFS showing highs in the 20-25 range for the 11th-12th period with lows in the single digits. Widespread cold with a 1034 H over W. WI at HR 240. Even before that it showed temps in the 30-40 degree range the entire run. 

 

Ouch, that's gonna hurt, midwinter when it's barely mid November if that ends up verifying anywhere close.

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Record breaking cold and possibly snow on the way boys and girls.  Whoever is NOT mind boggled by the evolution of this weather pattern and where this pattern can go is beyond me.  The potential for this to go to the Extreme is becoming more and more possible with each day's model runs.  I did notice that the PV has been weakened due to the SSW event and the Siberian arctic cold will flood Canada with some immense frigid air.  This will be the wx pattern that evolves this winter.  In the very first days of October we saw a very strong ULL near the Archipelago, then 7-10 days later we saw a cut-off ULL spinning near Hudson Bay for about a week straight.   Now, we are seeing that pattern set up again in November.  I think what will happen is a part of the PV get displaced into central Canada and flood the U.S. with some bitter cold at times this winter.  A winter fans dream come true, IMO.

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I see that 12z gfs paints snow across Nebraska on the 14-15 of November. Boy I hope this is our pattern. Tom keep the good news coming, I like sharing the wealth with you guys.

One thing about the weather and reading the wx maps is we need patience.  I, personally, have learned that over the years with day trading and especially watching the models come in over the past 3 years or so.  Once we see the jet stream dig farther south into the U.S. this month and the AO tank, your going to see weather systems hop the mountain range and develop in the Plains.  Just give it some time and don't give up hope in your region just yet.

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The big storm that hit the Sea of Japan to the west and north of the main island of Japan is correlating very well for next weekend in North America.  Now, to the next storm...another Typhoon is expected to hit the eastern shores of Japan around the 6th which would correlate well for that storm showing up on the 13th/14th.  Looking good.

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It's awesome to see this board blow up in just a matter of a day!  Lol, must have been that extra hour of sleep we got last night.  Glad to see the model runs come in an hour earlier and not have to stay up till 2:00am to see the full run of the 00z Euro!  Haha...also, the sun will set for the first time this year before 5:00pm...4:44pm to be exact.  Gotta reset the timers on my lamps inside my house.

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12z GGEM showing another clipper for Sat/Sun laying down snow in MN/IA/WI/N IL/MI....the longer range shows even more snow starting to pile up in this region from I-80 on north.

Ugh I love snow, but it's to soon for accumulating snow. Especially because I have a marathon on Sunday. I'll take snow the week of Thanksgiving-Late Apirl.

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12z euro HR 96 has a 1006 L on the southern tip of LM with 850's at -5 or lower. Not sure on precip though

12z Euro not showing much of accumulations but a rain/snow mix looks likely.  Much of the precip falls Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Although, it could trend colder on future runs.

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Ugh I love snow, but it's to soon for accumulating snow. Especially because I have a marathon on Sunday. I'll take snow the week of Thanksgiving-Late Apirl.

Doesn't look like Mother Nature will cooperate next Sunday.  An arctic attack is looking more likely for next weekend.  Check out the Sat night lows and high temps for Sunday!  The entire state of Wisco is sub freezing along with E IA and parts of N IL.  Amazing cold coming.

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I see that 12z gfs paints snow across Nebraska on the 14-15 of November. Boy I hope this is our pattern. Tom keep the good news coming, I like sharing the wealth with you guys.

 

Dissapointment looking more and more likely for our area it's looking like, hence my lack of interest in this forum and weather in general lately. The only "trend" I'm noticing, is that Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley are receiving the bulk of the cold and precip, while we get the crazy temperature swings and fizzled precip. Was incredibly cold and windy here last night. All to similar to how last year began.

Remember, patience is an important trait to have in the wx dept.  I know last year was abysmal for your region but don't forget what the long range seasonal forecasting models have been showing for the Plains this year.  The way the pattern is setting up could be very generous for your area as well.

 

Low and behold, 12z Euro paints a storm system in your region.  Didn't I mentioned earlier today it could potentially happen but wasn't showing up jest yet???  Bingo!  A storm system skirting the mountain range and developing in the Plains and heading towards the Lakes.  Let's see how it evolves.  Could even push farther south from the arctic cold up north.

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Doesn't look like Mother Nature will cooperate next Sunday. An arctic attack is looking more likely for next weekend. Check out the Sat night lows and high temps for Sunday! The entire state of Wisco is sub freezing along with E IA and parts of N IL. Amazing cold coming.

Oh that looks fun! -_-

Looks like a impressive cold snap.

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WOW!

post-46-0-32651600-1414943604.png

 

That's insane! lol.

Glad I got my winter coat cleaned and ready last week!

 

Down to 23° here this morning. The cold last night knocked the majority of the remaining leaves down. I'm hoping the snow can hold off at least a week, so I can get the rest of the yard work done. Not sure if that's going to happen though!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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18z NAM has clipper just north of LaCrosse at 84 hours.  Some snow for the twin cities.  Doesn't look too heavy but maybe a couple inches on this run anyway.

 

http://i.imgur.com/ebsRFKI.gif

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM/2014110218/USA_PCPPRSTMP_850mb_084.gif

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